Wind Chill Advisory 6, NWS Charleston, WV

Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Athens County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Perry County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH WIND BLOWN SNOW
SHOWERS. DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9 PM UPDATE. CLOUDS MOVING IN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HAVE
ADJUSTED MINS UP OVERNIGHT WHICH FOLLOWS TRENDS UPSTREAM. NO CHANGES
TO HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE QUITE THE WINTRY WX
DAY. KEPT IDEA OF FALLING TEMPS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RISE
OVERNIGHT PER WAA SW FLOW. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH
PROGRESSION OF MID LEVEL FEATURES AND SURFACE FEATURES...BY ABOUT 3
HRS OR SO. OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO NAM WHICH BRINGS ARCTIC FRONT
THRU IN SE OH BY MIDDAY...PROGRESSING E OF OH RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHSN ACTIVITY WITH THIS...BECOMING
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BY 21Z INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD
BAND OF SQUALLS WITH UPPER TROF AXIS AND THE TRUE CAA. BTV SN SQUALL
PARAMETER DEPICTS THIS NICELY ALONG WITH MODEL LIFT PARAMETERS
WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH LYR. AS SUCH...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER THREAT
OF THUNDER BUT ELECTED TO KEEP OUT OF GRIDS AT THIS DISTANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD COATINGS TO ONE INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
SOME LOLLIPOP AMOUNTS TO 2 INCHES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX ADV FOR THE
LOWLANDS. OF MORE CERTAINTY OF REACHING CRITERIA IS IN THE WV MTNS
WHERE AN ADVISORY FOR 2 TO 7 INCHES WAS CODED UP FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...WITH UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED IN CAA IN THE LOWLANDS AND A
BIT BETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS JUST BEYOND NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOT GOING ON BETWEEN THE NEAR TERM ABOVE AND THE SHORT TERM
HERE...AND THE CHALLENGE WAS TO KEEP THE HEADLINES IN ORDER WITHOUT
CONFUSING THE MATTER.

CARRYING ON THE END OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW FROM THE NEAR TERM WITH A
FINAL INCH OR TWO OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. HOLDING THE WIND CHILL WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY TO AVOID CONFUSION FOR NOW...AND THIS
WAS ALSO COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. UPPER LEVEL LOW
TAKES A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND
TIGHT GRADIENT WITH DESCENDING COLD ADVECTION. SO IN THE END...WILL
PASS ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ON TO THE NEXT SHIFTS.

HIGHLY ADVERTISED COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN TWO FORMS. THE FIRST IS FROM THE ADVECTION ITSELF
WITH THE COLDEST POOL OF AIR...AND THE SECOND NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. THIS IS IFFY HOWEVER WITH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN A CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO HAVE A
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES. MAY NEED TO
ULTIMATELY BUMP THESE UP.

LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NON CONVECTIVE MODELS AND BRING THE SLIGHTS
INTO THE TRI STATE AND KANAWHA VALLEY FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. KEEPING THE POPS LOW OVERALL HOWEVER AS A TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH BY A HANDFUL OF MILES WILL RESULT IN THE AREA REMAINING DRY.
SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK...BUT HAVE ALL
SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXTREME PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV.

A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
TO BRING LOW CHANCES OF PCPN MAINLY SOUTH AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING
DRIER WEATHER.  USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MOS...HPC...AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ENVISION 2-4
HOURS WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY MVFR TO LIFR...AS
INDIVIDUAL SNOW BAND PASS THROUGH. VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES EVEN MORE. WILL SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CATEGORY
CHANGES MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 02/14/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WVZ035>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ035>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

WVZ035>038-046-047-142000-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
301 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SATURDAY NIGHT...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND CHILL WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ039-040-142000-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
301 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WATCH.

ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-142000-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
301 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...CREATING
LIGHT SNOWFALL...AND USHERING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOWFALL AND WIND CHILLS MAY BE NECESSARY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.