Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
731 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS DRIFTING ESE
ACROSS CWA. EXPECT THESE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION GOING ON MAY KEEP THINGS GOING A BIT
LONGER THAN TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION. WHERE IT HAS NOT STORMED
STILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S...BUT AFTER A TSHOWER GOES THROUGH
TEMPS ARE GENERALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S BRIEFLY BEFORE
GRADUALLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW OT MID 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
MAY APPROACH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. OTHER SCATTERED
CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR THE TUG FORK.  OTHERWISE CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
IN FROM THE W. TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SAID DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SUNDAY SHOULD START MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A REPEAT OF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS LIKELY TO
GET CONVECTION FIRING YUP IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODEL TIMING ON THIS IS
GENERALLY SLOWER ON THIS COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SOMEWHAT FAVOR
THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY ON ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE.

BLENDED IN MET AND MAV FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR NOT
MUCH CHANGE. THIS LEAVES PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY MID WEEK. THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
IN A WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE PATTERN...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE ACTUALLY STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS A DRIER...AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER SOLUTION FOR MID TO LATE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BY THE
WEEKEND...IF NOT SOONER...MOISTURE MAY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES AS THE
HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. A LOT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
VISIBLE ON RADAR...WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME FAIRLY UNPREDICTABLE VARIABILITY
TO WINDS INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD A TSHOWER CROSS A TAF SITE...EXPECT
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AS THE
EVENING CONTINUES.

MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...THINK WE SHOULD AVOID DENSE FOG MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OF RAIN...MAY SEE MORE FOG
THAN LAST NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. COULD GET MVFR TO IFR IN THESE IF THEY
IMPACT A TAF SITE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY TONIGHT AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG TONIGHT MAY
VARY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AS THE CU STARTS TO FORM MIDDAY
SUNDAY.

AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
336 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-191945-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
336 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
ONWARD. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ007>011-017-019-020-191945-
MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
336 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
ONWARD. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ016-018-027>032-035>040-046-047-191945-
ROANE-CALHOUN-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
336 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
ONWARD. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ102-103-105-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>026-191945-
CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-
336 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH HUMIDITY
MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S ON SUNDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
ONWARD. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-191945-
GREENUP-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-
GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
336 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY ONWARD. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
652 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

WVZ014-182345-
PUTNAM-
652 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY...

AT 651 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TORNADO...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NITRO. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM
COUNTY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3842 8197 3839 8190 3833 8192 3827 8199
      3829 8205 3834 8204 3840 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 329DEG 3KT 3835 8196

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

WVZ014-015-190030-
KANAWHA-PUTNAM-
737 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND
NORTHWESTERN KANAWHA COUNTIES...

AT 736 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SISSONVILLE...OR 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF NITRO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...NITRO...WINFIELD...JEFFERSON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...
DUNBAR...SISSONVILLE...ELEANOR...POCA...COAL FORK...PINCH...
ELKVIEW...CROSS LANES...INSTITUTE...BANCROFT AND LIBERTY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3857 8195 3867 8173 3856 8163 3857 8159
      3845 8143 3828 8151 3827 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 319DEG 5KT 3851 8172

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
821 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

WVZ014-015-190030-
KANAWHA-PUTNAM-
821 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND
NORTHWESTERN KANAWHA COUNTIES...

AT 736 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SISSONVILLE...OR 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF NITRO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...NITRO...WINFIELD...JEFFERSON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...
DUNBAR...SISSONVILLE...ELEANOR...POCA...COAL FORK...PINCH...
ELKVIEW...CROSS LANES...INSTITUTE...BANCROFT AND LIBERTY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3857 8195 3867 8173 3856 8163 3857 8159
      3845 8143 3828 8151 3827 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 319DEG 5KT 3851 8172

08

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
848 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S HURRICANE           38.39N  82.02W
07/18/2015                   PUTNAM             WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TRACE FORK ALONG RT 34 OUT OF BANKS. ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501775

JSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
941 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

OHZ083-086-190245-
GALLIA-JACKSON-
941 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JACKSON AND NORTHERN GALLIA
COUNTIES...

AT 941 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WAVERLY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...WELLSTON...OAK HILL...RIO GRANDE...GALLIA...COALTON...
VINTON...ADAMSVILLE...BYER...PETERSBURG...MABEE...CENTERPOINT AND
GAGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3917 8279 3917 8277 3919 8276 3917 8260
      3908 8243 3904 8243 3903 8233 3901 8232
      3901 8228 3894 8214 3874 8247 3874 8248
      3877 8249 3879 8258 3884 8258 3885 8269
      3889 8276 3894 8275 3895 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 303DEG 22KT 3910 8289

08