Alert archive / West Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2015
Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV
NWS Charleston, WV issued this special weather statement at Jul 5, 2015, 5:36 PM EDT for McDowell County, Wyoming County, West Virginia. It was in force for 84 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 5, 2015, 5:36 PM EDT (21:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 5, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- NWS Charleston, WV
Counties McDowell County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 146 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -32 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 781 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 68 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 5, 3:58 PM EDT, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 3:58 PM EDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.
FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 2:45 PM EDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 245 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 KYZ102-103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046- 047-061845- CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN- PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-CALHOUN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER- LEWIS-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR- BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH- 245 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN INCREASES AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KYZ101-OHZ087-WVZ007-008-017-019-020-031-032-061845- GREENUP-LAWRENCE OH-MASON-JACKSON WV-WIRT-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-HARRISON- TAYLOR- 245 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SINCE THE GROUND IS WETTER THAN NORMAL...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH...FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN INCREASES AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ009>011-061845- PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WOOD- PLEASANTS-TYLER- 245 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SO THE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 3:08 PM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WVZ005-013-024>026-034-052100-
BOONE-LOGAN-MINGO-WAYNE-LINCOLN-WYOMING-
308 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...
MINGO...LINCOLN...CENTRAL BOONE...LOGAN AND NORTHWESTERN WYOMING
COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM.
AT 301 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MINGO...SOUTHERN LOGAN...AND WESTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES...MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 15 MPH. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
LAT...LON 3774 8221 3809 8247 3821 8227 3826 8198
3829 8191 3777 8150 3759 8168 3754 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 240DEG 48KT 3819 8162
05Special weather statement, Jul 5, 5:36 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
536 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WVZ033-034-052300-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
536 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT MCDOWELL
AND WYOMING COUNTIES...
AT 529 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER MCDOWELL
AND WYOMING COUNTIES...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELCH...PINEVILLE...MULLENS...OCEANA...GARY...NORTHFORK.
LAT...LON 3747 8177 3776 8158 3779 8153 3778 8146
3758 8131 3755 8131 3751 8122 3750 8126
3746 8131 3742 8128 3741 8129 3742 8131
3733 8137 3732 8140 3727 8143 3725 8148
3726 8150 3723 8151 3721 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 240DEG 49KT 3745 8159
05The office that day
Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 6:19 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | RLX | Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay and 12 more | 24 hr |
| Jul 5, 3:08 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RLX | Boone, Lincoln, Logan, Mingo | 112 min |
| Jul 5, 4:56 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RLX | Boone, Lincoln, Logan, McDowell, Mingo, Wyoming | 4 hr |
| Jul 5, 5:57 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RLX | McDowell, Raleigh, Wyoming | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 7:11 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RLX | Barbour, Randolph, Upshur | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 7:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RLX | Dickenson | 59 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in West Virginia, 2015Every special weather statement in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.