Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND MEANDER BACK
AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 2230Z GENERALLY STRETCHED EAST TO WEST ALONG A LINE
FROM KCKB TO JUST NORTH OF KCRW...ALMOST INTO KHTS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DRIER WEATHER...AND A GRADUAL CLEARING TAKING HOLD. COULD
BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN
OCCURRED...BUT COULD ALSO STILL BE ENOUGH OF A PUFF REMAINING IN
THE AIR TO PREVENT ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

STORM WATCH DROPPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DROPPED AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343 NOW IN EFFECT.

CONVECTION IS A TAD SLOW TO GET GOING...BUT GETTING CLOSER TO THE
UPPER 80S CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE. LOOKING AT 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 8C/KM RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING AROUND 21Z. BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 35KTS...LENDING TO SOME CELL
ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AS IT NOW APPROACHES CMH.

MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CLEARING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
THIS TYPICALLY NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SPEED
BUMP TO THE EAST. SO THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...EXPECTING TO BE ABLE TO LOSE THE CONVECTION IN A TIMELY
MANNER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO HANG UP IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND COAL FIELDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECTING A DRIER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE
850-650MB RANGE. KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THIS FRONT ACTIVE AS
IT SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS BY FRIDAY. SO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH THURSDAY WITH
THE MOST SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE NORTH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT THANKS TO A CONTINUED ONSLAUGHT OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH SOME
COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EVEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
HAVE ANOTHER FRONT COMING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER ONE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIKELY POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE POPS
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH
MODERATE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT...AT 2330Z...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCRW
TO KEKN. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL CONTINUE...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS. LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER 02Z.

PROBLEM TONIGHT THEN CONCERNS FOG DEVELOPMENT. MOST TERMINALS
RECEIVED RAIN TODAY FROM CONVECTION...AND WITH CLEARNING STARTING
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AFTER 12-13Z FOR A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS
LIKELY. FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXTEND OF FOG IN QUESTION TONIGHT.

.AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...FB/JMV
AVIATION...SL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

WVZ008-014>016-027-232300-
CLAY-KANAWHA-ROANE-JACKSON-PUTNAM-
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ROANE...
CENTRAL PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHERN KANAWHA COUNTIES...

AT 615 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF KENNA TO WINFIELD...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...NITRO...WINFIELD...SOUTH CHARLESTON...DUNBAR...
SISSONVILLE...ELEANOR...CLENDENIN...POCA...AMMA...COAL FORK...
WALLBACK...ELKVIEW...CROSS LANES...PINCH...BIG OTTER...KENNA...TEAYS
VALLEY...BANCROFT AND HARMONY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3875 8151 3866 8116 3864 8116 3863 8112
      3864 8110 3864 8106 3861 8097 3859 8097
      3860 8096 3858 8093 3857 8093 3827 8154
      3851 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 294DEG 25KT 3868 8151 3852 8185

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             1 NW WOLF PEN           37.55N  81.61W
06/23/2015  E0.88 INCH       WYOMING            WV   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DIME AND NICKEL SIZED HAIL BETWEEN
            605 AND 626 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501414

WOLFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
702 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

WVZ015-027-036>038-232345-
CLAY-WEBSTER-NICHOLAS-KANAWHA-FAYETTE-
702 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NICHOLAS...CLAY...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHERN WEBSTER AND CENTRAL KANAWHA
COUNTIES...

AT 701 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG OTTER TO NEAR SOUTH
CHARLESTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...SUMMERSVILLE...CLAY...JEFFERSON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...
DUNBAR...MONTGOMERY...CHESAPEAKE...MARMET...ANSTED...BELLE...
CLENDENIN...CEDAR GROVE...EAST BANK...GLASGOW...SMITHERS...GAULEY
BRIDGE...PRATT...CAMDEN-ON-GAULEY AND CRAIGSVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3834 8032 3834 8035 3833 8035 3807 8128
      3836 8182 3859 8095 3858 8093 3851 8088
      3856 8079 3852 8074 3853 8072 3838 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 297DEG 32KT 3855 8095 3836 8167

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
708 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             2 W KEYSTONE            37.41N  81.48W
06/23/2015  E1.00 INCH       MCDOWELL           WV   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501415

WOLFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
735 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-240015-
BUCHANAN-DICKENSON-MCDOWELL-
735 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
DICKENSON...BUCHANAN AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES...

AT 735 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARGO TO NEAR VIRGIE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRUNDY...HAYSI...JOHN FLANNAGAN LAKE...BREAKS INTERSTATE...WAR...BIG
ROCK...BRADSHAW...JOLO...OAKWOOD...ROSEANN...VANSANT...CUCUMBER AND
STACY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3723 8246 3727 8235 3740 8216 3741 8193
      3726 8147 3726 8150 3723 8151 3721 8156
      3720 8168 3724 8173 3720 8176 3717 8186
      3715 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 295DEG 29KT 3739 8195 3736 8262

12

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