Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CLEARING OVER THE CWA IS ALLOWING FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO...STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM EARLIER SHOWERS IS
MOVING IN. OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...AWAITING A LINE OF CONVECTION
THAT IS FORMING AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUILDING OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTION WANE WITH SUNSET.

LATER TONIGHT...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL PUSH
EASTWARD...ALSO TRACKING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM WEST TO EAST.
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THE REMAINS OF THIS SYSTEM. FIRST IS THE
ADDITION OF MOISTURE INTO WHAT IS ALREADY A TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.50IN AS OF THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING THIS
MORNING. WHILE BEING CAREFUL OF THE NAM AND ITS LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPICTION THAT TENDS TO RUN HIGH...IT AND THE GFS BRING
850MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 15-18C RANGE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM/BILL ARRIVES. RELYING ON MODEL CONSISTENCY HERE. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES ARE IN THE 300-400G/KG RANGE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WHICH SEGUES INTO THE OTHER CONCERN. A LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF THAT MOISTURE
WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL FLOW. CHECKING OTHER
PARAMETERS...THERE WILL BE HIGH THETA E CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS WELL...GENERALLY AFTER 15Z.

THE SHORT TERM WILL PICK UP THE LAST HALF OF THE EVENT.

1-3 INCHES OF RAIN TOTAL EXPECTED TO NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE ALREADY
STRESSED CONDITIONS OF THE GROUND/STREAMS/CREEKS/CULVERTS/DITCHES
ETC FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

CAP THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT CHANCE DUE TO WATER LOADING OF THE
SOUNDING.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRONT WILL MEANDER NORTH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL.  MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM
IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION THAN GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF.

WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP POPS
UP FROM THE LATE SATURDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS ABOUT 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING.
WHILE I AM USUALLY VERY CAUTIOUS ABOUT USING MODEL DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AS IT HAS BEEN TOO HIGH IN THE PAST...FEEL
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT AND FORECAST IS
BELIEVABLE.

COMBINATION OF THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL SHOULD RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STILL THINKING THERE COULD BE A LULL SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...
DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTION AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION... APPEARS FRONT
WILL MEANDER BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SO
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BUT IT WILL BE OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH.

A FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.

DESPITE THE FASTER FLOW...NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FOR WATER/FLOOD CONCERNS TOO.

TRIED TO PLAY A DIURNAL TREND ON THE POPS...BUT TIMING OF THE FASTER MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT THAT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BUT IT WILL BE OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH.

A FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRONG GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS.

DESPITE THE FASTER FLOW...NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FOR WATER/FLOOD
CONCERNS EITHER.

TRIED TO PLAY A DIURNAL TREND ON THE POPS...BUT TIMING OF THE
FASTER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT THAT THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE LESS
COVERAGE OF TSRA THAN SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

CURRENTLY WATCHING A DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...AND COULD AFFECT HTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OVER NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS FROM PKB TO EKN.

OTHERWISE...THE SAME PATTERN EXISTS IN THE TROPICAL CONVECTIVE
PATTERN. AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS LIKELY FOR APPROACHING STORMS TO
TERMINALS AS PREVAILING TSRA CANNOT BE JUSTIFIED TODAY.

WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEGINS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL. CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
REQUIRE AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS. POST RAIN IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY
OCCUR OVERNIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
411 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-033-200815-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-MCDOWELL-
411 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA...FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR TODAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IF REPETITIVE STORMS OCCUR.

THE AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVE
THROUGH. SOME HEADWATER RIVERS COULD SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ105-WVZ005-013-025-026-034>036-046-200815-
LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE-LINCOLN-LOGAN-BOONE-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
POCAHONTAS-
411 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA...FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IF REPETITIVE STORMS OCCUR.

THE AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
BILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME HEADWATER RIVERS COULD SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RISES.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-
037>040-047-200815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-
MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
RANDOLPH-
411 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA...FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IF REPETITIVE STORMS OCCUR.

THE AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
BILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME HEADWATER RIVERS COULD SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RISES.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1022 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE STACY              37.27N  81.93W
06/18/2015                   BUCHANAN           VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES FELL ALONG ROUTE 640 AND HALE CREEK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501380

KTB

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