Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THURSDAY...BUT SINKS SOUTH AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE IN MUGGY AIR.
REMNANTS OF BILL COULD ENHANCE COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BACK
INTO KENTUCKY WITH CONVECTION NOW FIRING OVER THE BULK OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE...PEAK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER JUST SOUTH OF THE UNI TO PKB TO CKB
LINE AND SHOULD OSCILLATE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. MODELS REALLY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TRACKING THE BOUNDARY...SO FOCUSED MORE ON
THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA RUNNING THROUGH THE 500MB FLOW.
WITHIN THIS FLOW HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL SUFFERING FROM
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND STRATIFORM RAIN FROM CONVECTION HOURS
EARLIER...AND IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS THE CLEARING OFF TO THE SOUTH.

SPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THERE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL FLOW AVAILABLE FOR SHORT SEGMENTS AND SMALL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY IS LARGELY A REPEAT OF TODAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
SHOWING THE UNSTABLE PATTERN CONTINUING...BUT SPECIFICS MAY CHANGE
FOR THE HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT AND TIMINGS ONCE WE SEE WHAT OCCURS
LATER THIS EVENING AND EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH OUTFLOWS...MORE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...AND STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELDS FROM
DECAYING CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT SAGGING BACK SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TO ABOUT THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY.

WILL TRY TO HAVE A BAND OF LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH
SINKING DOWN INTO CENTRAL COUNTIES.

WILL LOWER POPS NORTH OF THE EXPECTED FRONT ON FRIDAY...ALONG OUR
NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES.

FRONT OSCILLATES BACK NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.

HAVE MOST WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNPOURS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
SO THE FLASH FLOOD HAZARD CONTINUES ALONG SMALL STREAMS CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT
BEFORE SUNDAY.  SO WILL LOWER POPS EARLY...YET...INSTABILITY STILL
REDEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FRONTAL ZONE STILL IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

A FASTER WNW FLOW ALOFT TAKES CONTROL FOR DAY 5 INTO 6...MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD NORTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SO MAY
BE DEALING WITH SOME FASTER MOVING STORMS DAY 5/6.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ROUND TWO OF THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE
HEATING TAKING PLACE IN THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

CONVECTION WILL BE HIT OR MISS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST TODAY FOR TSRA.

GOING EASY ON THE FOG TONIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER...AND SHOULD SEE SOME WIND OVER THE NORTHERN SITES. BEST
CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE HTS AND CRW WHERE THE SKY HAS A BETTER
CHANCE TO CLEAR. AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL ADD TO THE FOG EQUATION
TONIGHT.

MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED FROM MORNING ONWARD THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND LOCATIONS WILL VARY.
FOG SET UP FOR TONIGHT IS NOT IN PLACE JUST YET. MAY NEED TO ADD A
LOW IFR STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...26

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

WVZ024>026-034-035-172115-
BOONE-LOGAN-MINGO-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
410 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RALEIGH...MINGO...
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE...LOGAN AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

AT 409 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOGAN...PINEVILLE...MULLENS...OCEANA...MAN...DELBARTON...R.D. BAILEY
LAKE...WHARTON...BALD KNOB...HOLDEN...TWIN FALLS STATE PARK...GILBERT
CREEK...CHIEF LOGAN STATE...RED JACKET...BUSKIRK...
AMHERSTDALE-ROBINETTE...MALLORY...MOUNT GAY-SHAMROCK...HANOVER AND
HINCH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3752 8183 3755 8186 3753 8189 3755 8212
      3759 8213 3762 8218 3765 8217 3765 8218
      3763 8219 3787 8240 3797 8138 3750 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 277DEG 29KT 3770 8198

14