Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...SOUTH OF A
FRONT...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGH BUILDS NORTH
MONDAY. FRONT BACK IN VICINITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO HUGE CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A WARM...HUMID AIR MASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE AREA. MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH HAVE MOVED EAST...BUT NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
WARM HUMID ATMOSPHERE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE REALIZED EARLIER
TODAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS WITH LAST NIGHT...EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE ANOTHER WARM MUGGY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING.
DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES AS MANY
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WERE ABOVE YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ONCE AGAIN.

CONVECTION WILL PICK BACK UP IN COVERAGE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...AND WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. COULD
BE A FEW STORMS ON THE STRONGER SIDE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
MODERATE...30-40 KTS WESTERLY FLOW...THROUGH A RELATIVELY DEEP
LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ISSUED BY SPC ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. FOR THE FORECAST
TOMORROW...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE EXPECTING BETTER
COVERAGE FROM AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO INTRUDE FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL POP IN
THE SOUTH...BUT THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. BY MONDAY THIS DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED FURTHER
NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...PROVIDING FOR WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SO
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BATTLE CONTINUES...BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES.

THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE TRIES TO RECLAIM OUR CWA ON MONDAY...BUT THEN
BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WILL INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  CONCERNED ABOUT ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION EVENTUALLY LEADING TO WATER CONCERNS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE FLUCTUATING AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.  TOO PREMATURE TO INCLUDE IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL ON THIS THURSDAY...CAN REVISIT IT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... .
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AREA ONCE AGAIN...WITH
BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 02Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY
WANING OVERNIGHT. STILL...COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN
VICINITY OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 08Z...DEPENDING
ON IF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ABLE TO FORM.

CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AFTER
15Z...AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN
WV...WHERE STRONG WINDS/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT CONDITIONS
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH/MAC
AVIATION...SL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>016-024>027-
033>037-141745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
132 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE MUGGY AIR...ANY SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTAIN A DOWNPOUR.
IF REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS HIT THE SAME SMALL STREAM
BASIN...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-067-075-076-WVZ009>011-017>020-028>032-038>040-046-047-141745-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
132 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

IN ADDITION...ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR EVEN FRIDAY COULD
CREATE FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IF REPETITIVE STORMS OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

OHZ075-076-085-WVZ006>010-013>017-131830-
WASHINGTON-MEIGS-ATHENS-MASON-PLEASANTS-CABELL-KANAWHA-JACKSON-
PUTNAM-LINCOLN-ROANE-WIRT-WOOD-
139 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MEIGS...
WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN ATHENS...WESTERN ROANE...PUTNAM...WIRT...
WOOD...WESTERN PLEASANTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASON...LINCOLN...JACKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN CABELL AND NORTHWESTERN KANAWHA COUNTIES...

AT 137 PM EDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR GLOUSTER TO NEAR RAVENSWOOD TO BUFFALO TO NEAR
BARBOURSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...PARKERSBURG...MARIETTA...NITRO...BELPRE...RIPLEY...
WINFIELD...ST. MARYS...HAMLIN...ELIZABETH...COOLVILLE...FORKED RUN
STATE PARK...JEFFERSON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...ST. ALBANS...VIENNA...
DUNBAR...HURRICANE...RAVENSWOOD AND WILLIAMSTOWN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...SEEK SHELTER IN SIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3958 8109 3931 8120 3915 8133 3912 8128
      3857 8147 3818 8182 3821 8183 3808 8197
      3821 8227 3827 8231 3831 8228 3832 8236
      3856 8200 3897 8183 3946 8210 3945 8183
      3949 8182 3948 8171 3952 8170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 223DEG 39KT 3943 8203 3901 8180 3859 8197 3835
8233

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