Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
817 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT. COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. DRY EASTER. UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CANCELLED PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND
NORTHERN WV. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST KY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF WV UNTIL 2 AM.

ADJUSTED POPS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOWING AN AREA OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR KY COUNTIES INTO WV. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN IL/IN AREA TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ALSO...A WEAK BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF AROUND THREE QUARTERS TO EIGHT TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF PW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES OF OVER AN INCH JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...AND PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE AREA. HAVE HAD A FEW FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OHIO...AND
AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
CONTINUED WAVES OF PRECIP...AND EXPECTED CONVECTION...ELECTED TO
JUST EXPAND THE WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TOO.

INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND REMAINDER OF CWA
OUTSIDE OF VERY NORTHERN ZONES IN MARGINAL...WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING
MCS ACROSS WESTERN KY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD TOWARDS
OUR REGION AS THE PRIMARY THREAT TO WATCH. STILL THINKING WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 9000-10000 FEET...HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. IN
ADDITION...STILL EXPECTING SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO OUR WEST...BUT APPEARS AS IF THEY COULD BE
TRYING TO FILL BACK IN. IF THEY CONTINUE TO BREAK...THIS WILL ONLY
HELP TO AID INSTABILITY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLAKES FLYING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
TONIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLEAR AND ON THE
COOL SIDE. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM CO/NE TO THE
GREAT LAKES. HAVE RAMPED POPS UP ON MONDAY FROM WEST OT EAST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH AN
OVERALL MESSY PATTERN OF WAVES BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. STUCK VERY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST FROM HTS TO CRW. THESE STORMS WILL REACH BKW BEFORE
01Z. EXPECT THESE ADDITIONAL STORMS TO AFFECT THESE SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 03Z.

A COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGES OVER SOUTHEAST OH...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES...AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 22 TO 30
KNOTS. CODED WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS IN TAFS ACCORDINGLY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO THUNDER.

THESE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BRING MAINLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 1200 FEET. SOME SITES COULD
EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS AFTER 03Z OUT WEST...AND AFTER 06Z EASTERN
SITES.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/04/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-
     024>028-033>039-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FB/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1022 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-016>020-029>032-040-050230-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-BARBOUR-
1022 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. REPETITIVE ROUNDS COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>028-033>039-
046-047-050230-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
1022 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. REPETITIVE ROUNDS COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1002 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE STANAFORD          37.79N  81.11W
04/03/2015                   RALEIGH            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY AND COUNTY. POWER
            LINES DOWN. TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501133

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT GAY                38.12N  82.59W
04/03/2015                   WAYNE              WV   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF BRIDGES AND ROADS OUT

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501134

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1016 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALKOL                   38.16N  81.92W
04/03/2015                   LINCOLN            WV   PUBLIC

            PRIVATE BRIDGE WASHED OUT

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501135

ARB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1027 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

WVZ033>035-040300-
MCDOWELL WV-RALEIGH WV-WYOMING WV-
1027 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHERN MCDOWELL
AND SOUTHERN RALEIGH COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...

AT 1025 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
7 MILES EAST OF PINEVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINEVILLE TO 12
MILES WEST OF WELCH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR RHODELL AROUND 1040 PM...HERNDON AROUND
1050 PM AND NORTHFORK AROUND 1100 PM.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3749 8196 3751 8194 3755 8167 3765 8141
      3759 8117 3757 8120 3751 8121 3750 8124
      3746 8130 3742 8128 3741 8131 3732 8136
      3730 8140

12

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