Alert archive / Ohio / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

March 14, 2015Lawrence County, Ohio

NWS Charleston, WV issued this special weather statement at Mar 14, 2015, 10:01 PM EDT for Lawrence County, Ohio. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 14, 2015, 10:01 PM EDT (02:01 UTC)
Expired
Mar 15, 2015, 4:00 AM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Charleston, WV

County Lawrence County, OH

The radar

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 14, 7:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 7:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
733 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ENDS EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.  COLDER PATTERN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...REWORKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS FINALLY HAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THIS PERIOD...AS
A SHARP SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT DROP DOWN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND KICKS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
CLOUDS LINGERING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ON RIDGE TOPS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION BEFORE ENDING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CLEARING THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS COOLER AND DRIER...BUT AFTER A CHILLY
NIGHT TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND FROM THE 30S TONIGHT TO MAINLY THE 50S FOR HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY TONIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS...BUT
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP MONDAY AS
THE LOW LEVELS/850MB CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS. WINDS WILL STAY
UP IN THIS RETURN FLOW WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HILL
TOPS AND RIDGE TOPS IN UPGLIDING FLOW...RESULTING IN SOME 70S
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS. A FEW UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES INCREASE
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER MONDAY...SO THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART IN A SCENARIO WHERE
OVERSHOOTING THE GUIDANCE IS A GOOD TECHNIQUE. INSTEAD...WILL KEEP
IT IN THE MEX MOS AREA FOR NOW.

A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY USING A HIGHER POP/LOW
QPF AMOUNT. LOSE THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF
EKN/W22 AREA. TEMPERATURES DROP ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS TRIES TO HAVE US DOMINATED BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND A
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ECMWF STILL HAS A DAMPENING
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRUSHING US THURSDAY.  SINCE WE HAVE HAD THIS
IN THE FORECAST THE PAST 2 DAYS...WILL CONTINUE...AND NOT BUY INTO
THE DRIER GFS YET.  THE TREND SINCE FEBRUARY SEEMS TO BE THAT THESE
SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE COME FURTHER NORTH.

WILL ALSO CONTINUE DRYING TO PUSH THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH BY
FRIDAY BEFORE SHUNTING DISTURBANCES TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...FIGURING ON A CLEAR NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DIMINISHING WIND...SO WENT COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUITE THE DIFFERENCE ACROSS CWA...WITH VFR ACROSS THE WEST...AND
IFR IN CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...HOWEVER DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT 925 WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO DESPITE WET GROUND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AM NOT HITTING FOG HARD DUE TO WINDS.

FOG AND ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
BRING LIGHTER WINDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE OR LESS FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DEPENDING
ON WINDS. COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR CLOUDS IN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A STRONG RISE OCCURRED TODAY ON THE MUSKINGUM RIVER...BUT COE
PROJECTS AT WILLS CREEK AND DILLON SHOULD HELP DAMPEN THE CREST.
RIVER FORECAST IN FLOOD IS AT BEVERLY OHIO ON THE MUSKINGUM.  THIS
IS A RELATIVELY NEW RIVER FORECAST POINT.

A STEADY RISE ALSO OCCURRING ON THE OHIO RIVER.  RIVER FORECAST
POINTS AT BELINGTON AND RACINE WILL BE CLOSE TO FS. POINT
PLEASANT...ASHLAND AND GREENUP RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE. OF
THOSE 3...ONLY GREENUP HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS CREST EARLIER THIS
MONTH.

TYGART AND BUCKHANNON RIVERS IN WV SHOULD REMAIN REMAIN BELOW
FLOOD STAGES AT BELINGTON...PHILIPPI AND BUCKHANNON.

HIGH WATER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON SOME OF THE LARGER STREAMS TOO.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV
HYDROLOGY...MZ
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 14, 3:05 PM EDT, 6 hours 56 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
305 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

KYZ102-105-OHZ066-075-083-084-VAZ003-004-WVZ008>011-013>020-024>040-
046-047-151915-
CARTER-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-ATHENS-JACKSON OH-VINTON-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-
LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
305 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101-103-OHZ067-076-085>087-WVZ005>007-151915-
GREENUP-BOYD-MORGAN-WASHINGTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-
MASON-
305 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ELEVATED LEVELS ON RIVERS HAVE PROMPTED WARNINGS AT LOCATIONS ON
THE OHIO RIVER AND THE MUSKINGUM RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 14, 9:57 PM EDT, 4 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
957 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

OHZ075-076-WVZ009>011-150800-
ATHENS OH-PLEASANTS WV-TYLER WV-WASHINGTON OH-WOOD WV-
957 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WASHINGTON...ATHENS...TYLER...WOOD
AND PLEASANTS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKINGUM...MIDDLE ISLAND...AND
MIDDLE OHIO BASINS. HOWEVER...RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND
MANY AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND ARE
EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT
LIMITED TO...DUCK CREEK AND ITS TRIBUTARIES...THE MUSKINGUM
RIVER...AND THE LITTLE MUSKINGUM RIVER. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FLOOD
WARNING ALONG THE MUSKINGUM RIVER AT BEVERLY IN WASHINGTON COUNTY
OHIO.

IN ADDITION...AS THE OHIO RIVER SLOWLY RISES TONIGHT...BACKWATER
WILL BE A PROBLEM IN THE USUAL LOW SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY...OR SIGNS INDICATE THE ROAD IS CLOSED.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3955 8103 3960 8084 3945 8062 3930 8088
      3939 8092 3931 8122 3903 8158 3918 8176
      3920 8227 3930 8230 3947 8228 3947 8217
      3956 8216 3955 8205 3946 8206 3945 8182
      3948 8171 3959 8171 3959 8149 3965 8147

16
Special weather statement, Mar 14, 10:01 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

OHZ087-150800-
LAWRENCE OH-
1001 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
UNTIL 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS IN LAWRENCE COUNTY OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH DUE TO
RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO...SYMMES CREEK WHICH WAS OUT OF ITS BANKS SATURDAY EVENING. MINOR
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY...OR SIGNS INDICATE THE ROAD IS CLOSED.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3857 8281 3860 8274 3868 8276 3868 8271
      3873 8270 3876 8266 3885 8265 3884 8258
      3878 8258 3877 8248 3868 8246 3867 8235
      3859 8236 3858 8229 3847 8231 3844 8234
      3840 8256 3855 8271

16

The office that day

Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 14, 9:57 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRLXPleasants, Tyler, Wood6 hr
Mar 14, 10:25 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRLXJackson, Wood66 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Ohio, 2015Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.