Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
416 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECT NORTHEAST
FROM BILL THROUGH FRIDAY. REMNANTS OF BILL COULD ENHANCE COVERAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS ALREADY BEEN OVERCOME OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CONVECTION IS FIRING ON THE EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS AT AROUND THE 30KT MARK...BUT THE BONA
FIDE LOW LEVEL JET RESIDES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WILL RETREAT
FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING.

IN THE MEANTIME...ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...REMNANTS OF BILL ALREADY
ADDING TO THE EQUATION FOR THE WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND PUSH THEM EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP BACK TO THE SOUTH...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
WILL WARRANT AN INCREASE IN THE POPS OVERNIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD SETTLING INTO
THE HEART OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.

WITH THESE TROPICAL DOWNPOURS WHERE THE PWAT FROM THE 12Z ILN
SOUNDING WAS 1.5 INCHES...AND LIKELY VALID IN OUR AREA AS
WELL...FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. I-64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH HAS
SEEN GENERALLY 2-3 INCHES OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS OR SO AS OF THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED LOCATIONS MAY RANGE MORE FROM 1 INCH
TO 4 INCHES...AS IS NATURAL IN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. CREEKS
AND STREAMS RESPOND A LITTLE MORE EACH TIME IT RAINS...BUT WE DO
GET MULTIPLE HOURS OF RECUPERATION TIME IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AN INCH OR LESS...BUT
WILL STILL NEED CELL TRAINING AND MULTIPLE BASINS FOR ISSUES TO
OCCUR. IN THIS ATMOSPHERE...THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY HARD TO COME
BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT MEANDERS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF BILL. 12Z NAM HOLDS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE REFLECTION. WILL PLAN ON WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING
UP THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR HTS AT 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS NRN CENTRAL WV
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS ABOUT 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING HAD OF THE
MID LEVEL SUPPORT.  WATER HAZARD REMAINS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL THINKING MOSTLY STREAMS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON HEADWATER RIVERS.

SINCE THE GROUND HAS BEEN GETTING WETTER...WATER PROBLEMS COULD
EVEN OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE MAIN ENHANCEMENT LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY EVENING. SO NOT CONCENTRATING JUST ON THAT ONE DISTURBANCE.

STILL THINKING A LULL IN THE WAKE OF THE REMAINS OF BILL FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT COULD INCREASE CONVECTION AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT
IT WILL BE OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH.

A FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.

DESPITE THE FASTER FLOW...NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FOR WATER/FLOOD CONCERNS TOO.

TRIED TO PLAY A DIURNAL TREND ON THE POPS...BUT TIMING OF THE FASTER MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT THAT THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE SOUTH RIGHT NOW...EXPOSING
BKW...HTS...AND CRW TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HITTING THESE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LOOKING AT A LULL IN THE ACTION AFTER 22Z OR SO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE SHRA VCTS/CB IN
THE TAFS AFTER 04Z TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE BRINGS MORE ACTIVITY
TOWARDS 10Z...AND THEN AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FRIDAY.

MVFR FORECAST FOR STORMS IN TEMPOS...ALTHOUGH IFR VISIBILITY FOR A
FEW MINUTES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE NEED TO BE ABLE TO
COMMUNICATE THREE CATEGORIES AT TIMES LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST FOG AWAY TONIGHT. CRW AND HTS
COULD SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS AS THE WIND IS CLOSER TO CALM AT THESE
LOCATIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION WILL
REQUIRE AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS.

.AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER LOCATIONS
GET RAIN AND THEN CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-190830-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
422 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IF HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IF REPETITIVE STORMS OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
314 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE HANOVER            37.62N  81.73W
06/18/2015                   WYOMING            WV   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES DOWN AT RD BAILEY CAMPGROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501366

ARB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
411 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GENOA                   38.12N  82.46W
06/18/2015                   WAYNE              WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON DRIFT CREEK ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501367

COOPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
429 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

WVZ006-013>015-182130-
CABELL-KANAWHA-PUTNAM-LINCOLN-
429 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PUTNAM...NORTHERN
LINCOLN...WEST CENTRAL KANAWHA AND SOUTHEASTERN CABELL COUNTIES...

AT 429 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR HAMLIN...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...NITRO...HAMLIN...JEFFERSON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...ST.
ALBANS...DUNBAR...HURRICANE...MILTON...POCA...TORNADO...CULLODEN...
ALUM CREEK...CROSS LANES...TEAYS VALLEY...INSTITUTE...WEST HAMLIN...
BANCROFT...GRIFFITHSVILLE AND BRANCHLAND.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3836 8231 3854 8179 3830 8167 3818 8223
      3830 8228 3831 8228 3832 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 255DEG 27KT 3833 8219

14