Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Charleston, WV

615 
WGUS61 KRLX 080205
FFARLX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1005 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>026-
033>036-080315-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150408T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLATWOODS...GREENUP...GRAYSON...
OLIVE HILL...ASHLAND...LOUISA...IRONTON...SOUTH POINT...
CLINTWOOD...GRUNDY...VANSANT...KENOVA...CEREDO...WAYNE...
HUNTINGTON...HARTS...ALUM CREEK...HAMLIN...TEAYS VALLEY...
HURRICANE...CHARLESTON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...SAINT ALBANS...
WILLIAMSON...LOGAN...CHAPMANVILLE...MAN...MADISON...WELCH...
GARY...WAR...MULLENS...OCEANA...PINEVILLE...BECKLEY...OAK HILL...
FAYETTEVILLE
1005 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH FASTER THAN
EXPECTED AND RAINFALL GAUGES ARE ALL SHOWING LESS THAN A HALF OF AN
INCH IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
ARRIVE AT THE END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING/LOCATION ON POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MESO NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE OF ALL THE MODELS ON THE TWO FEATURES CURRENTLY ON
RADAR...OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN WV AND OVER SOUTHERN
IL. THEREFORE WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE MESO NAM FOR PRECIPITATION
TIMING TODAY. THIS BRINGS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
IL COMPLEX OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.

MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
HOWEVER...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY ORIGINATING IN FEATURES THAT HAVE
NOT YET DEVELOPED. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS GENERIC AND RUN MORE
OF A TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL TRYING TO HONE IN ON WHICH PERIODS ARE MOST ACTIVE IN THIS
UNSETTLED WEEK. THE FIRST IMPULSE WITH MOST AGREEMENT IS WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WITH A MORE ROBUST ONE SLATED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A BREAK WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION GETS GOING ONCE AGAIN...THIS TIME ALONG A
NEW WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLIDE OFF TO N THURSDAY
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TRIES TO FOCUS MORE ALONG DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS SE OH. THUS THURSDAY MAY BE OUR WARMEST THIS WEEK. TREND
IS FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE UPPER TROF...THUS
A FASTER FROPA...NOW SLATED FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. THINGS DRY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEEKEND SHAPING UP
TO BE RATHER NICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING IN A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING IN THEIR QPF FIELDS ARE NOTICED.
BELIEVE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO DETERMINE PCPN ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE LOW SYSTEM. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...POSITIONING THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER OUR AREA. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ON FRIDAY. BEEN ON THE WARM
SECTORS...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EXITING THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH A STRONGER UPPER
WAVE ACCORDING WITH THE GFS/CMC AND ECMWF MODELS.

THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS EXITING THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WARM REACHING THE UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WENT CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MESSY SITUATION WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING
MAINLY EASTWARD ACROSS CWA. SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO OUR WEST WILL
TRY TO MOVE EAST...BUT MAY ALSO BE SHUNTED SOUTH ALONG A
BOUNDARY...CREATING A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE SOME MVFR
AND VCTS TRYING TO TIME THESE...BUT COULD BE OFF A BIT AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH. ALSO PUT IN SOME MVFR FOG BEHIND TONIGHTS BATCH OF
SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
FOG COULD FORM IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
325 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-080730-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
325 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. REPETITIVE STORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.