Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS Charleston, WV

Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Mason County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
645 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST...TO PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAST
MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF IT. FRONT RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER NIGHT WHERE THE VALLEY FOG TRIES TO SPREAD...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOWING IS INCREASING.  AT 08Z...THE 925 MB FLOW AS 25 KNOTS AT RLX. YET...
EVERY FOG SITUATION IS UNIQUE...GIVING US HEADACHES. PATCHES OF FOG
EVEN REACHED OUT OF THE VALLEYS AND AFFECTED BKW FOR A TIME.  STILL SOME
LINGER LOW STRATUS OVERCAST DURING THESE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG THE ROUTE 50
CORRIDOR...BUT WAS FIGURING THAT SHOULD BREAK UP AROUND DAWN.

WAS A FEW HOURS FASTER BRINGING THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THROUGH...BUT THEN
SLOWED IT DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING.  FIGURING CELL MOVEMENT WOULD BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS.  SO COULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME PULSE SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
WEST VIRGINIA.  OUTSIDE CONVECTION HAD SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.

RAIN AMOUNTS OVER A HALF INCH IN OUR WET CORRIDOR FROM NE KY THRU CENTRAL WV
WOULD CAUSE THE USUAL RUNOFF CASCADING OFF HILLSIDES...OVERFLOWING DITCH LINES...
WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADS.  HOPING TRAINING IS NOT AN ISSUE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...LIMITING DURATION. SOME TRAINING MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AS
THE PREFRONTAL BAND BENDS MORE EAST TO WEST.

AS OF 08Z...WILL NOT POST ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WITH A BIT FASTER SPEED ON CONVECTION TODAY...LOWERED MAX TEMP TODAY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

LOW STRATUS COULD FORM IN WAKE OF FRONT...AT LEAST IN WV TONIGHT...SO CAN NOT
BE CONFIDENT THAT THICK FOG WOULD FORM UNDER THAT STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY. IT WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE CWA.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES WILL PASS OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA AS WELL.

HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN START INCREASING MOISTURE AGAIN AS A WARM
FRONT STARTS TO BECOME DEFINED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE
MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA...WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW DISCARDED THE
ECMWF...STICKING CLOSE TO A NAM/GFS BLEND. HOWEVER...TRENDS NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. SHOULD THE ECMWF BE ON TO SOMETHING...HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WETTEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BETWEEN I-64 AND US-50.

HAVE POPS INCREASING SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES
ON NW FLOW...AND THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND NEAR THE
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH INTO MONDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALLOWED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...SLIGHT CHANCE HAS
BEEN CODED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AS EXPECTED TOWARD
DAWN...BUT A FEW SHOWERS FORMED THERE...THAT WERE NOT.  FORMED ALONG
SPEED CONFLUENCE IN LOW LAYERS.  925 MB FLOW FASTER IN OHIO VALLEY THAN PBZ
VCNTY AT DAWN.

OVERALL...NOT MAJOR CHANGES IN 12Z TAFS.  MAYBE AN HOUR SOONER ON
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY...WITH CELL MOVEMENT AT
LEAST 45 KNOTS. COULD BE BRIEF IFR IN THE STORMS...BUT SELECTED
PREVAILING MVFR IN TAFS.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS EXIT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BUT COULD LINGER
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AS FRONTAL
BAND MAY BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST.

FIGURING ON LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS FORMING BY 06Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
EKN-CRW ON SOUTH. COULD LEAD TO IFR IN CEILINGS WITH VSBY MOSTLY MVFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOW FAST THE CEILINGS LOWER TONIGHT IN THE 00Z TO 06Z
FRIDAY TIME FRAME IN QUESTION...MAY DROP QUICKER THAN FORECAST.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER AROUND 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...KTB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1204 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

OHZ076-WVZ010-011-091645-
WASHINGTON-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
1204 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN PLEASANTS AND TYLER COUNTIES...

AT 1203 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MARIETTA...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARIETTA...ST. MARYS...MIDDLEBOURNE...WILLIAMSTOWN...PADEN CITY...
SISTERSVILLE...NEWPORT...MATAMORAS...LOWELL...FRIENDLY...FLY...
ARVILLA...DEVOLA...LIMA...WICK...POINT LOOKOUT...NEW MATAMORAS AND
ALMA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3960 8085 3956 8082 3955 8079 3947 8071
      3947 8064 3945 8062 3942 8072 3939 8141
      3939 8151 3953 8155 3958 8121 3957 8104
      3954 8104 3961 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 254DEG 43KT 3948 8139

15