Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Riverton, WY

FXUS65 KRIW DDHHMM
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

LIKE LAST NIGHT WE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING HAS ENDED FOR
THE TIME BEING. AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. AND LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE LARGE DEW
POINT/TEMPERATURE SPREADS. AND WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THIS WILL USHER IN A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
THAT SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY CONVECTION AT THAT TIME.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AS FLAT RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW. THERE COULD STILL BE
A FEW POP UP STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BUT WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A
DRIER AIR MASS THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AGAIN LIKE
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE STORMS WILL
FIRE SO FOR NOW WE BLENDED THE MODELS TO SEE IF ANY AGREEMENT
MANIFESTS ITSELF IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD END IN THE
EVENING WITH A MAINLY DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

WE HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY. THE MODELS AGREE WITH THE
GENERAL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NAM HAS THE SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH THE
GFS FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...CONTINUITY LOOKED DECENT SO WE LET
THINGS RIDE. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MAY BE MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY.
MY COLLEAGUE WILL HAVE MORE ON THAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EURO SOLUTION FROM LAST NIGHT WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM CANADA FRIDAY AND
SWINGING ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER
JET SUPPORT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS SCENARIO. THE GEM IS TRENDING THIS WAY BUT
DOESN'T BRING THE MAJORITY OF THE TROUGH ACROSS UNTIL MONDAY.
FORECAST IS TRENDING STRONGLY TOWARD THE IDEA OF A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR LATE JULY SWINGING ACROSS SATURDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
COULDN'T GO AS HIGH AS I'D LIKE YET BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE...WE
WILL NEED TO HIT THIS PERIOD MUCH HARDER. CYCLONIC NW FLOW LINGERS
INTO SUNDAY ON THE GFS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS A GOOD BET WHILE
THE ECMWF QUICKLY STARTS TO REBUILD THE HEIGHTS WITH A MUCH DRIER
W-NW FLOW. FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW WITH ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE DRIEST DAY WITH HEIGHTS REBUILDING OVER THE AREA. A FEW
STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...STILL WANTING TO SHOW A FEW EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. KEEPING ISOLATED STORMS IN FOR THE WEST
AND SOUTH. GFS AND EURO DIVERGE MORE BY TUESDAY WITH THE EURO
STILL BRINGING ON REMNANT CA LOW AND SOME MOISTURE FROM DOLORES
WHILE THE GFS HAS A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS OFF FROM CO INTO THE PLAINS. BUT EVEN IN THE GFS SCENARIO
THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW WHICH COULD
AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WILL CARRY ISOLD STORMS OVER MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
MAY THEN DIG INTO THE PACNW AROUND MIDWEEK WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF TSTMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE DIVIDE. THIS SYSTEM ORIGINATES NEAR KAMCHATKA AND MOVES
THROUGH OUR WEAKENING ERN PACIFIC RIDGE THAT BUILDS LATE THIS WEEK
TO AID IN OUR WEEKEND TROUGH. ENOUGH GOING ON IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT EACH DAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS TOUGH TO TRY
AND HAVE ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION...WITH MOST TERMINALS AFFECTED. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSBILE SMALL HAIL. BRIEF LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DUE TO
LOWER VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
IN CONVERAGE BY 03Z...ENDING AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED BUT BELOW CRITICAL SINCE FUELS REMAIN
NON CRITICAL. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.
HOWEVER...WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRIER AND
WARMER DAY FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
301 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

WYZ001>020-022>030-160915-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-CODY FOOTHILLS-
NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-JACKSON HOLE-
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-
UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER BASIN-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-CASPER MOUNTAIN-STAR VALLEY-
SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-FLAMING GORGE-EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-
301 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT HAIL AND STRONG WINDS GUSTS. THANK
YOU.

TEAM RIVERTON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
159 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

WYZ010-011-152045-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-
159 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

AT 159 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MAYOWORTH TO KAYCEE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FORT RENO HISTORICAL SITE AND POWDER RIVER REST AREA AROUND 245 PM
MDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE KAYCEE BRANCH
LIBRARY...KAYCEE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...POWDER RIVER CABINS AND KAYCEE
HIGH SCHOOL.

#

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 248 AND 283.
 INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 74 AND 91.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4443 10610 4378 10613 4360 10669 4411 10668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 238DEG 22KT 4406 10663 4370 10665

BRAUN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
231 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

WYZ005-007-016>018-152100-
OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-UPPER WIND
RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER BASIN-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
231 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOT SPRINGS AND
CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 229 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAVERIK SPRING DOME
FIELD TO NEAR SINKS CANYON STATE PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MAVERIK SPRING DOME FIELD AROUND 235 PM MDT.
  ANCHOR DAM AROUND 255 PM MDT.
  ARAPAHOE AND HUDSON AROUND 300 PM MDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE RIVERTON REGIONAL
AIRPORT...OWL CREEK KAMPGROUNDS...FREMONT COUNTY LIBRARY...LANDER
GOLF COURSE...RENDEZVOUS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...WYOMING INDIAN MIDDLE
SCHOOL...TRINITY LUTHERAN SCHOOL...WIND RIVER RV PARK...ASHGROVE
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND SOUTH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

#

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4389 10855 4292 10830 4276 10880 4284 10887
      4353 10905 4352 10904 4354 10904 4354 10900
      4356 10904 4357 10904 4356 10894 4360 10898
      4359 10892 4362 10894 4367 10889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 237DEG 31KT 4349 10907 4280 10890

TL

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