Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
400 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

ACTIVE PERIOD IN STORE AS WE'VE TALKED ABOUT FOR DAYS NOW. MORNING
SHORTWAVE HAS FIRED ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
MOVE TOWARDS AND INTO OUR FAR ERN/NERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MEANTIME...WE WAIT FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE ERN HALF TAKING THE LONGEST TIME DUE TO MORNING
STRATUS. MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
BUILDING CAPE THROUGH 00Z WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR...LL SE FLOW BECOMING
MODERATE WLY IN THE MID LEVELS AND UP. WE'VE HAD SEVERE WORDING IN
OUR FORECAST SINCE SATURDAY AND THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. MID MORNING
SPC DAY1 ALSO HAS SLIGHT RISK OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR NORTH. EXITING JET STREAK AND NOSE OF APPROACHING JET STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE AN UPPER DIVERGENCE
COUPLET OVER CENTRAL WYO BY THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
OREGON/NRN CA COAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE DIVIDE/RED DESERT WITH INCREASING LL MOISTURE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS OVER
CENTRAL WYO IS STILL THERE BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING/SHORTWAVE
FOCUS THE CONVECTION COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PW'S AROUND
AN INCH WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AT LEAST
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND THUS HIGH LL MOISTURE AND STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR. IDEA OF SEVERE
WORDING STILL LOOKS GOOD IN CENTRAL WYO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
SLIGHT RISK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT. ONLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FLATTENED
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND.

THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
WYOMING BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE TO A STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WILL BE QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE
CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD
WILL BE DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AT 12Z
FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BY 12Z
SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER AND JOHNSON COUNTY ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S FOR ALL BUT WESTERN PORTIONS. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE
SATURDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

AREAS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. KCOD TO KGEY AND NORTH
TO THE MONTANA BORDER COULD SEE THE MOST ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY SURFACE WIND. A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE AND OR CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. STRONG STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS LIKELY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WYZ002>011-015>020-
022.

&&

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...BRANHAM/LAVOIE
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
235 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

WYZ001>020-022>030-161200-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-CODY FOOTHILLS-
NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-JACKSON HOLE-
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-
UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER BASIN-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-CASPER MOUNTAIN-STAR VALLEY-
SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-FLAMING GORGE-EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-
235 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN WYOMING...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
12 MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WY...CENTRAL
WYOMING...NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING...NORTHWEST WYOMING...SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING AND WEST CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD
PRODUCING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WYOMING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING...RIVERS OUT OF THEIR
BANKS...OR NORMALLY DRY WASHES RUNNING WITH WATER. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAIN...HAIL OF ANY SIZE...AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THANK YOU.

TEAM RIVERTON

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