Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Riverton, WY

504 
WWUS85 KRIW 212013
RFWRIW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
213 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NATRONA COUNTY...

.A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS TO BRING
EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NATRONA
COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM MDT.

WYZ280-220100-
/O.CON.KRIW.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150322T0100Z/
NATRONA COUNTY/CASPER BLM-
213 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 280...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 280.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 13 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE FIRES WITH
  RAPID RATES OF SPREAD. DELAYING SPRING BURNING IS HIGHLY
  ENCOURAGED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RIVERTON

512 
WWUS85 KRIW 220051
RFWRIW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
651 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015


WYZ280-220200-
/O.EXP.KRIW.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150322T0100Z/
NATRONA COUNTY/CASPER BLM-
651 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 280...

AS TEMPERATURES COOL THIS EVENING AND THE WIND DECREASES AND THE
HUMIDITY INCREASES...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NO LONGER OCCUR IN
NATRONA COUNTY. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RIVERTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1105 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND GENERALLY MILD
CONDITIONS. OVER AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
ACROSS WYOMING WITH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORCING REMAINING FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS MONTANA. AS A RESULT WE TRIMMED THE POPS A BIT ACROSS
MOST AREAS. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK TO
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY WEAK. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE FUN STARTS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THE MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AND
WHERE THE BEST ENERGY AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ONE
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH WESTERLY FLOW THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR WEST OF THE DIVIDE WITH THIS
ONE MOVING AWAY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN THEN DIVERGE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
EUROPEAN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS FOR MOST
AREAS AND A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT AGAIN PINPOINTING A
HEAVIER SPOT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. THE SPREAD BECOMES
EVEN GREATER ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS BRINGING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
EUROPEAN HAS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS COVERAGE. WITH WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...THERE COULD EVEN BE A BIT OF SNOW
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...CONTINUITY HANDLED THINGS ABOUT
AS WELL AS THE MODELS DO SO WE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. THINGS THEN
BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN FOR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN EASTERN AREAS WITH THE LAST SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE EAST.
THEN...EXPECT A WARMER AND DRIER DAY FOR FRIDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR OVER NW WY FROM 21Z SATURDAY UNTIL 04Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 00Z SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND THEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST AFTER 03Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND GENERALLY MILD
CONDITIONS. OVER AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN
THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
419 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015

WYZ001>020-022>030-2111200-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
419 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SNOW AND STRONG WIND EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEAM RIVERTON