Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS WEEKEND'S STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AN IMPRESSIVE 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY IN ALPINE, MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH NARROW RAIN CORES AND
SOME NEW LIGHTNING FIRES BEING IGNITED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. SEE
OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING WETTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER NORTH OF RENO, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.65-0.75", MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES. TONIGHT, A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA HELPING TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS BECOMING WETTER AS PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 1.0" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO COLDER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME
SLOWER, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. PWATS WILL DROP OFF ON
MONDAY TO AROUND 0.75" WITH INCREASING STORM MOTIONS. STEEP UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AND INCOMING JET EXIT REGION WILL GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER HYBRID TYPE DAY WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND
0.75", STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
CORES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPACT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
MOISTURE ISN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PRESENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMMH OR KTVL AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. CLOUD BASES ARE
BETWEEN 10-14 KFT AGL WITH TOPS 25-35 KFT AGL. IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CELLS, TOPS MAY REACH 50 KFT AGL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROBUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF NEW FIRES EVEN THOUGH CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS RESULTING FROM
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE STORM CORES WITH RECEPTIVE VEGETATION THAT IS
READY TO BURN. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH NEW FIRE STARTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
WITHIN STORM FOOTPRINTS. STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CORES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS. HUMIDITY SHOULD
BE 15-30% DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE UPWARD FIRE-GROWTH POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY, BUT
THESE TOO APPEAR TO BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY.

DRY LIGHTNING WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS; A WEAK WAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TRIGGER MECHANISM. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONGER OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD BE A DANGER TO FIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CAZ073-NVZ001-012100-
MONO CA-MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES NV-
130 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ON THE NORTH END OF BRIDGEPORT RESERVOIR
MOVING NORTH...

AT 128 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRIDGEPORT RESERVOIR...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
BRIDGEPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRIDGEPORT RESERVOIR...JUNCTION NV 338 AND CA 182 AND SWEETWATER
SUMMIT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 11912 3831 11933 3860 11928 3852 11895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 197DEG 13KT 3836 11920

DJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
153 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CAZ072-073-012115-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA CA-MONO CA-
153 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SONORA PASS...

AT 151 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SONORA PASS...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SONORA PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM RESULTING IN PONDING OF
WATER ON SONORA PASS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 11961 3829 11965 3832 11965 3834 11963
      3837 11965 3839 11964 3838 11958 3822 11955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 164DEG 5KT 3832 11964

DJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CAZ073-012145-
MONO CA-
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST SIDE OF MONO LAKE...

AT 222 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONO LAKE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONO LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR MONO LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 11903 3821 11910 3821 11885 3813 11877
      3797 11880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 179DEG 8KT 3805 11893

DJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
431 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CAZ071-020015-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES CA-
431 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NEAR PORTOLA THROUGH 515 PM...

AT 429 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER IRON HORSE...OR NEAR BECKWOURTH...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH
BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BECKWOURTH...IRON HORSE...DELLEKER...LAKE DAVIS...GRIZZLY
CAMPGROUND...VALLEY RANCH...MOHAWK VISTA...PORTOLA...LIGHTNING TREE
CAMPGROUND AND GRASSHOPPER FLAT CAMPGROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT TRAVELERS ON HIGHWAY 70 BETWEEN BECKWOURTH
AND BLAIRSDEN. DRIVERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG GUSTY CROSS WINDS...WITH
RAPID VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN PONDING
OF WATER. SLOW DOWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAIN AND TURN ON YOUR
HEADLIGHTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 12036 3972 12053 3994 12066 3996 12037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 166DEG 9KT 3976 12045

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
617 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CAZ071-020200-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES CA-
617 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKE DAVIS TO SOUTHWEST JANESVILLE
THROUGH 7 PM...

AT 615 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ANTELOPE LAKE
TO 9 MILES EAST OF GENESEE TO NEAR LAKE DAVIS...AND MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANTELOPE LAKE...LONG POINT CAMPGROUND...LONE ROCK CAMPGROUND...
LIGHTNING TREE CAMPGROUND AND BOULDER CREEK CAMPGROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING POSE AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO BOATERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY
CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS.

&&

LAT...LON 4033 12058 4030 12078 4005 12071 3988 12059
      3991 12041 4016 12044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 151DEG 9KT 4014 12061 4008 12057 3997 12055

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
617 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CAZ071-020200-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES CA-
617 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKE DAVIS TO SOUTHWEST OF JANESVILLE
THROUGH 7 PM...

AT 615 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ANTELOPE LAKE
TO 9 MILES EAST OF GENESEE TO NEAR LAKE DAVIS...AND MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANTELOPE LAKE...LONG POINT CAMPGROUND...LONE ROCK CAMPGROUND...
LIGHTNING TREE CAMPGROUND AND BOULDER CREEK CAMPGROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING POSE AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO BOATERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY
CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS.

&&

LAT...LON 4033 12058 4030 12078 4005 12071 3988 12059
      3991 12041 4016 12044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 151DEG 9KT 4014 12061 4008 12057 3997 12055