Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
307 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE EARLY THIS
WEEK BEFORE FALLING BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ADJUSTED THUNDERSTORM TIMING OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE MONDAY AND
BUMPED UP POP/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONO COUNTY AND
MINERAL COUNTY WEST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS AFTERNOON. OVER WESTERN
LASSEN COUNTY, A COUPLE STORMS HAVE POPPED UP AS THE RAIN-COOLED
(FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING) ATMOSPHERE THERE HAS MODIFIED
QUICKLY WITH AFTERNOON SUN. FOR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, CUMULUS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, MODEST CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING WITH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM HARD TO RULE OUT WITH MODERATE (BUT
LOWER THAN RECENTLY) MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE AREA TODAY.

AS FAR AS THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, INSTABILITY IS
MODERATE (500-1000 J/KG), MOTIONS ARE QUITE ANEMIC (LESS THAN 10 MPH)
AND PWATS REMAIN OVER 0.75" SO HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE FLASH FLOODING IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STEEP TERRAIN AND ON RECENT WILDFIRE
BURN SCARS, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SO THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW FOR THE
OVERALL AREA.

WITH NO UPPER FORCING OF NOTE, CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD END
BY AROUND SUNSET. ON MONDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING DIVERGENCE
AND COOLING ALOFT (INCREASING INSTABILITY), WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO THE SIERRA FOLLOWED BY A
PUSH OFF INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE
EVENING. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO STORMS
GENERALLY WILL BE OF SIMILAR CHARACTER.

TUESDAY, THE GFS/NAM INDICATE THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AROUND THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL BRING AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME MAINLY DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER. THIS COULD BRING INCREASED ORGANIZATION/LIFESPANS TO
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS STILL
DEPICT RATHER HIGH PWATS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ABOUT HIGHWAY 50, SO
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN A THREAT.

TUESDAY NIGHT, THE 12Z GFS/NAM SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION PERSISTING FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN AND
FAR WESTERN NEVADA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND ITS PARENT LOW. THE SREF ALSO KEEPS A
LOW CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, I HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT
POP FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST POP IN NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS TRACK THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA FOR MID WEEK BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOULD LEAD
TO A CLOUDY, COOL AND WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION. AT THIS TIME THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COULD BE FOCUSED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, AS A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS ON THE NORTHEAST
SIDE OF THE LOW. AFTERNOON SHOULD DROP INTO THE 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 70S FOR THE SIERRA BEFORE WARMING UP A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE BY 06Z WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER LYON, EASTERN MONO AND WESTERN MINERAL
COUNTIES, WITH JUST A 10-15% CHANCE OF STORMS IMPACTING KRNO AND
KMMH. LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND KTRK/KTVL UNTIL
TOMORROW. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH,
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD UP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND FAR WESTERN
NEVADA.  MAIN THREATS ARE HEAVY RAIN, WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL.

THE LOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN ONGOING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
631 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NVZ003-004-060200-
GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA NV-
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE NV-
631 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FERNLEY...

AT 627 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING OVER STOREY COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN...HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAHONTAN RESERVOIR...FERNLEY...HAZEN...SILVER SPRINGS...US 50 AT
LYON-CHURCHILL CO LINE...INTERSTATE 80 EAST BETWEEN DERBY DAM AND
FERNLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS INCLUDING ALTERNATE
HIGHWAY 95 AND INTERSTATE 80. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN TO REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDROPLANING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3945 11936 3960 11932 3968 11904 3941 11899
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 262DEG 14KT 3952 11929

BRONG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
723 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NVZ003-004-060245-
GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA NV-
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE NV-
723 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAH RAH RANGE
CROSSING HIGHWAY 447...

AT 717 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FERNLEY...OR 21 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LAHONTAN RESERVOIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN, HALF INCH HAIL, AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NIXON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND CREEKS COMING OUT OF THE PAH RAH RANGE TO BE FULL.
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...MINOR ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. DRIVERS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY
RAINS ALONG HIGHWAY 447.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 11921 3970 11945 3996 11928 3982 11902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 232DEG 14KT 3971 11931

DJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
733 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NVZ004-060315-
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE NV-
733 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT SILVER SPRINGS AND LAHONTAN
RESERVOIR...

AT 732 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SILVER SPRINGS...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LAHONTAN RESERVOIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN, HALF INCH HAIL, AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAHONTAN RESERVOIR...FORT CHURCHILL STATION...SILVER SPRINGS...SILVER
SPRINGS AIRPORT AND US 50 AT LYON-CHURCHILL CO LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROAD AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

IF ON OR NEAR LAHONTAN RESERVOIR...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 11929 3941 11939 3956 11903 3934 11890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 244DEG 12KT 3936 11925

DJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
831 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NVZ003-060400-
GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA NV-
831 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SPARKS INCLUDING PYRAMID
HIGHWAY NORTH OF MCCARRAN...

AT 828 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SPARKS...OR NEAR RENO. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN, HALF INCH HAIL, AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RENO...SPARKS...LOCKWOOD...WINGFIELD SPRINGS...SPANISH SPRINGS...
LEMMON VALLEY-GOLDEN VALLEY...SUN VALLEY...NWS RENO...MUSTANG AND
SPANISH SPRINGS AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROAD AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 11964 3952 11987 3969 11977 3966 11954
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 189DEG 1KT 3958 11974

DJ