Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
205 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA. CURRENT DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE 50S WITH PW 1-1.2 INCHES, NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR EARLY
JULY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED FROM TAHOE NORTH TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY WITH ANOTHER LINE OVER THE SIERRA FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. ANY STORM IS CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL RAINS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS WAVE,
THERE IS SUBSIDENCE SO CUT BACK ON THE STORMS THIS EVENING FOR
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN HIGH ALONG WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS.
AGAIN, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN AND IT COULD
AFFECT SEVERAL AREAS TOMORROW. CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH, BUT WILL HOLD OFF. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME MORNING CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT
LOWER. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE
395 CORRIDOR WHERE MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION, A WEAK AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND ADD LOW LEVEL FORCING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING AT LEAST NORTH OF I-80 AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH A
LITTLE LESS MOISTURE AND SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SATURDAY'S WAVE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EAST
DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK ZEPHYR. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SO MODERATE CHANGERS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST, MAINLY
CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INITIAL TIMING VARIANCES
FOR MONDAY BETWEEN GFS AND THE ECMWF WITH THE EC A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE WAVE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, AGREEMENT BECOMES MORE
CONSISTENT MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE SIERRA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.
PREVIOUSLY, THE THOUGHTS WERE THAT FLOW WOULD BE TOO DRY FOR
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST LEVELS
ARE DRIER, SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. DID CHANGE SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORM PLACE MORE OVER THE SIERRA INITIALLY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING INTO MAINLY WESTERN NEVADA WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING THE
HEAT DOME TO ABATE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE REGION.
BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALONG THE SIERRA AND JUST
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. OUTSIDE THE
STORMS VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...BUT WITHIN THE STORMS LOWERED
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL.
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY NEAR THE STORMS AS WELL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...THEN LESS STORMS
ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NVZ003-032300-
GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA NV-
312 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...HEAVY RAIN OVER SPANISH SPRINGS...

AT 310 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SPANISH SPRINGS...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF RENO. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RENO...SPARKS...WINGFIELD SPRINGS...GOLDEN VALLEY...LEMMON
VALLEY-GOLDEN VALLEY...SPANISH SPRINGS...LEMMON VALLEY...SUN
VALLEY...NWS RENO AND SPANISH SPRINGS AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS. IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...MINOR ROCK SLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 11950 3956 11950 3956 11987 3984 11987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 180DEG 0KT 3971 11969

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
313 PM PDT FRI JUL 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W VERDI               39.52N 120.04W
07/03/2015  M1.06 INCH       SIERRA             CA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER IN VERDI REPORTED 1.06
            INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 35 MINUTES.

&&

MCGUIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
336 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CAZ071-032315-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES CA-
336 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WESTWOOD WITH HEAVY RAIN...

AT 334 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WESTWOOD...OR 14 MILES EAST OF CHESTER. THIS STORM IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTWOOD...CA 36 AT PLUMAS-LASSEN CO LINE AND FREDONYER PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS. IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...MINOR ROCK SLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 12094 4033 12081 4021 12095 4022 12099
      4032 12107 4044 12106 4045 12111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 133DEG 4KT 4032 12097

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
351 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NVZ003-004-032345-
GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA NV-
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE NV-
351 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO IMPACT PYRAMID LAKE...

AT 350 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUTCLIFFE...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF PYRAMID LAKE.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM WHICH IS
ABLE TO CAPSIZE SMALL WATERCRAFT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PYRAMID LAKE...SUTCLIFFE AND THE NEEDLE ROCKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING POSE AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO BOATERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY
CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS.

&&

LAT...LON 3981 11941 3988 11966 4018 11970 4017 11939
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 179DEG 12KT 3986 11954

MB

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