Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
428 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL SHIFT WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY IS TEXTBOOK/CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-SUMMER IN
CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 5.5
C/KM CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST NC WHERE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (SFC-H85) IS DEEPER AND IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE NC/VA COAST. DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR IS NON-EXISTENT TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WESTERLIES LOCATED TO THE NORTH OVER WV/VA. AS A RESULT...STORM MODE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO SINGLE CELL (UNORGANIZED)
CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE. SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF NEW UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GIVEN 20-30 KT WESTERLY FLOW ~700 MB LEVEL. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-00Z...THEN TRIANGLE TO NE COASTAL PLAIN 00-03Z.

THIS IS A PROTO-TYPICAL /UNEXCEPTIONAL/ SUMMER-TIME AIRMASS FOR
CENTRAL NC...I.E. THE TYPE OF AIRMASS IN WHICH IT WOULD BE
EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO LABEL ANY CONVECTION AS SEVERE. GIVEN
MARGINAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POTENTIAL ATTENDANT 20-30 KT H7 FLOW AND
MARGINAL TO MODERATE EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL ATTENDANT STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DCAPE ~1000 J/KG...A BRIEF 30-40 KNOT
DOWNBURST /ISOLD DOWNED TREE/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP ELEVATED CORES (I.E. SIZABLE 50 DBZ TO 25+ KFT WITH ET 40-50
KFT). GIVEN THE WEAK/SPORADIC NATURE OF SUCH DOWNBURSTS ALONG WITH
LITTLE (IF ANY) LEAD TIME PRIOR TO THEIR OCCURRENCE...WARNING
ISSUANCE IS UNADVISED IN MOST CASES. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM WEDNESDAY...

A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THU/THU
NIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERLIES (WHICH TERMINATE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIAS).
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ATTENDANT A THERMAL TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE DRIER AND MIXING DEEPER VIA
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING THU AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PERHAPS
DECREASING TO 500 J/KG OR LESS. AS A RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC. MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE
OH VALLEY/VIRGINIAS COULD CONCEIVABLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
VA/NC BORDER LATE IN THE EVENING (00-04Z)...THOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD SURVIVE. EVEN IF IT SURVIVED TO THE
BORDER...A RAPID WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN INCREASING
CIN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENV (AS MENTIONED ABOVE) TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S...PERHAPS HITTING 100 DEGREES IN THE SANDHILLS.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S THU NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO TIP
THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE STEERING
FLOW FOR ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. ALSO EXPECT A PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA...HENCE WILL HAVE POPS (LOW CHANCE)
GRADUATED TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD SURVIVE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SKIRT THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE PERSISTENCE
WITH A NUDGE DOWNWARD ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDINESS WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT...FROM 90 NORTH TO 96 SOUTH.

FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NUDGED SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING IN THE OHIO VALLEY RIDES THE NORTHWEST FLOW
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS STILL BE TIED TO THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM AROUND 90 NORTH TO 95 SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
RETROGRADE WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
MAINTAINING A POP GRADIENT FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION...NON-DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM
ANTICIPATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A SLIGHT-
CHANCE CATEGORY THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY.  HIGHS...LOW AND MID 90S...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF COUPLE OF
DEGREE VARIATION FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT WHICH WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN TRANSITION WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME WHICH COULD AMPLIFY
INTO AND PERHAPS PERSIST AS AN EAST COAST TROF INTO LATE WEEK.
REGARDLESS...WE REMAIN IN THE HEAT AND SOUP WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION BETWEEN 21-03Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE AT THE FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT DIURNAL
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-091945-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
343 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

NCZ073>075-083-084-090000-
RICHMOND-ANSON-STANLY-MOORE-MONTGOMERY-
725 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
RICHMOND...ANSON...SOUTHEASTERN STANLY...SOUTHWESTERN MOORE AND
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 724 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF ROCKINGHAM...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PINES...ROCKINGHAM...WADESBORO...PINEHURST...HAMLET...
ABERDEEN...ANSONVILLE...HOFFMAN...POLKTON AND WHISPERING PINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND. MAKE
SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8018 3524 7936 3502 7952 3499 7957
      3494 7958 3480 7969 3481 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 268DEG 28KT 3509 7978

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
757 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N FRANKLINVILLE         35.74N  79.69W
07/08/2015                   RANDOLPH           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500868

RAH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
825 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

NCZ075-085-086-088-090115-
SCOTLAND NC-CUMBERLAND NC-HOKE NC-MOORE NC-
825 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SCOTLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...HOKE AND SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL
915 PM EDT...

AT 825 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN PINES TO 8 MILES NORTH OF LAURINBURG TO NEAR
CHAVISTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...LAURINBURG...SOUTHERN PINES...RAEFORD...FORT BRAGG...
MAXTON...ANTIOCH...HOPE MILLS...EASTOVER AND WAGRAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7967 3491 7950 3524 7935 3507 7876
      3484 7887 3483 7890 3490 7894 3495 7904
      3483 7919 3484 7935 3482 7936 3477 7933
      3463 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 296DEG 25KT 3514 7930 3489 7942 3470 7972

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
839 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

NCZ025-040-041-090115-
WAKE-DURHAM-CHATHAM-
839 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

...GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN WAKE...
DURHAM AND NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 837 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHAPEL HILL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

OUTFLOW WINDS RACING OUT AHEAD OF THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH IN THE ADVISED AREAS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...DURHAM...CARY...GARNER...RDU INTERNATIONAL...APEX...HOLLY
SPRINGS...MORRISVILLE...FALLS LAKE STATE REC AREA AND BETHESDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7881 3609 7879 3607 7878 3608 7869
      3606 7866 3565 7864 3564 7897 3604 7899
      3609 7898 3611 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 264DEG 45KT 3587 7898