Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT...AND THEN STALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY.  THE
FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC AS EXPECTED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOCATED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...AND SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AS THEY EVOLVE EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER NOTABLE FEATURE IS A MID LEVEL VORT CURRENTLY MOVING E
ACROSS NE SC. THIS FEATURE MAY AID THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES AS IT MOVES EAST THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK SHEAR...CELL INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIMITED...BUT STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF INTENSE DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND ABOVE-CLIMO PWAT VALUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
PITTSBURGH TO NASHVILLE TO MEMPHIS WILL MOVE S AND E AND ACROSS OUR
CWA. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AN ISOLD SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. MORE LIKELY WILL BE THE FORMATION OF SOME FOG...ESP
ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ACROSS THE NW (AROUND 60) WHERE
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...VERSUS OUR SE
ZONES WHERE THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND THUS HAVE
LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SC ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NW. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
AND INDUCE A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE (PARTICULARLY HOW
FAR NORTH) THAT WAVE WILL SET UP...BUT EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT ZONES LATER
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH AND CAROLINAS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NC/SC ON THURSDAY AND THEN OFF THE NC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A WEAKER AND SOUTHERN
OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE
WAVE...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...WHICH HAVE SUPPORT FROM
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE.  THE FORCING ALOFT WILL BE MOSTLY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE
MIDWEST AND MERGES WITH A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE/SFC LOW WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAY BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PENDING DESTABILIZATION AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S.  IF MORNING SHOWERS AND/OR
CLOUDS DONT LIMIT HEATING TOO MUCH THEN SOME WEAK CAPE MAY DEVELOP.
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT MAY THEN EXIST GIVEN 30-35KT OF MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND  BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW....MAINLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE THE THE PARAMETER SPACE FOR SOME
ROTATING STORMS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THE DEEPER NAM SHOWS BETTER
POTENTIAL THAN THE ECMWF...SO AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LIKELY LOW BUT WORTH WATCHING.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
NORTH TO LOW OR MID 80S SOUTH DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST MID CLOUDS ARE
AS THEY ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE DAY.

PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST AND A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS
FILTERS OVER THE REGION...COURTESY OF A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THICKNESSES DROP
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AND SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO TROUGHING
OUT WEST AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHICH
WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBY TO IFR OR MVFR. OUTSIDE OF
THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ACTIVITY
WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...ENDING AT INT/GSO BY
19/23Z...RDU BY 20/00Z...AND RWI/FAY BY 20/01Z. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS...BUT CONFIDENCE
RIGHT NOW IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WITH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND RAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND
EARLY THU...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
420 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084-200830-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
420 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-200830-
EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
420 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NCZ040-075-076-191945-
MOORE-CHATHAM-LEE-
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MOORE...SOUTHWESTERN CHATHAM AND WESTERN LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF CARTHAGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANFORD...CARTHAGE...GOLDSTON...WHISPERING PINES...GUM SPRINGS...
HARPERS CROSSROADS...CUMNOCK...HIGHFALLS...TRAMWAY AND GLENDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7960 3552 7956 3551 7956 3552 7955
      3566 7936 3547 7909 3524 7938
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 324DEG 6KT 3547 7941