Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY... THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING: NUMEROUS SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL NC. HEATING/MIXING
DISSIPATED THE WEAK CAP OVER THE REGION NEARLY 2 HOURS AGO...
YIELDING EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION TO OUR SW OVER NE GA AND UPSTATE SC.
SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WON'T CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KINEMATICS REMAIN ROBUST WITH
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KTS (ACCORDING TO SPC
MESOANALYSES) AND RAP ANALYSES REVEALING A LONG STRAIGHT LINE
HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE
VALUES ARE RAPIDLY GROWING AND NOW SIT NEAR 1000 J/KG AND 1500-2000
J/KG RESPECTIVELY... AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE REACHED NEAR 8
C/KM. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH DERIVED PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE
CRAVEN SIGSVR AND SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS. PW VALUES ARE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT INCREDIBLY HIGH...
AND THIS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE SOMEWHAT INITIALLY... BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL GROW AND CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR
MCS OR OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS AFFECTING A LARGER AREA. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL STILL LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS... GIVEN THE LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH AND FAT CAPE IN THE 0C
TO -30C LAYER WITH CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING STRONG
UPDRAFTS. INTENSE TORNADOES LOOK TO BE LESS LIKELY WITH LCL HEIGHTS
UP TO 1000 M CURRENTLY AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES... BUT A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 40-50 MPH FROM THE WSW... AND THESE
TRANSLATIONAL SPEEDS WILL EXACERBATE THE EFFECTS OF ANY STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION NOW
OVER THE GSP CWA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE NE... SO EXPECT THE
GREATEST SEVERE RISK OVER CENTRAL NC TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM...
GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN AFTERWARD... WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
TRAILING SHOWERS AFTER 11 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM... AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH THE
ONSET OF DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A DRYING COLUMN. STILL EXPECT
LOWS FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NW TO AROUND 60 SE AS COOLER AIR RUSHES
IN LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED JUST SE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUE... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF
STATES... THEN DRIFTING ACROSS GA/SRN SC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STABLE AND DRY COLUMN WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CU NEAR THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER IN THE AFTERNOON. A PASSING WEAK VORTICITY MAX COULD
ALSO BRING A STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE EVENING. HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL AT 68-74 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF THE COAST. LOWS 44-50. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US GRADUALLY SLIPS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...BUT MOST PLACES WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY AND THOSE THAT SEE PRECIP WILL HAVE MEAGER AMOUNTS.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHILE ON
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
(EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S (COOLEST
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT).

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH WITH RESPECT
TO THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL
PATTERN INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN...AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SPREADING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...DETAILS HAVE YET TO BE
WORKED OUT. REGARDLESS...WILL SHOW POPS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH...
AS OF NOW AT LEAST...DRIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS
TO BE DRY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...

EARLIER MVFR CIGS AT INT/GSO/RDU/FAY HAVE SCATTERED OUT... AND
EXPECT RWI TO FOLLOW SUIT AND BECOME SCT IN THE NEXT HOUR. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NRN GA AND UPSTATE SC THEN MOVE TO
THE NE... LIKELY AFFECTING INT/GSO 19Z-23Z... RDU 20Z-00Z... AND
FAY/RWI 21Z-01Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS... BUT CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR STORMS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR
BRIEFLY IFR. ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND HAIL GREATER THAN 1
INCH IN DIAMETER REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE SCATTERED STORMS. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS... WINDS FROM THE SW AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20-30
KTS WILL PERSIST... VEERING AROUND TO WESTERLY WITH DIMINISHING
GUSTS AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AFTER 04Z. A SHORT PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... BUT GENERALLY WE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WED EVENING/NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST STATES. VFR CONDITIONS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
LATE THU INTO SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-211030-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
255 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE... WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-211030-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
255 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE... WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
538 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             2 NNE BETHEL HILL       36.53N  78.87W
04/20/2015  M1.00 INCH       PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500622

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
603 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N LAKE TOWNSEND       36.22N  79.79W
04/20/2015  M58 MPH          GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 58 MPH WIND GUST ON HOME WEATHER
            STATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500623

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
610 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

NCZ023>025-039-040-075-202300-
RANDOLPH NC-ORANGE NC-MOORE NC-CHATHAM NC-DURHAM NC-ALAMANCE NC-
610 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...SOUTHERN ORANGE...NORTH CENTRAL MOORE...
CHATHAM...SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM AND SOUTHERN ALAMANCE COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

AT 610 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SILER CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...GRAHAM...HILLSBOROUGH...PITTSBORO...SILER
CITY...CARRBORO...GOLDSTON...SWEPSONVILLE AND STALEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND. MAKE
SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 7883 3561 7899 3558 7892 3552 7897
      3555 7903 3561 7908 3562 7914 3557 7920
      3556 7920 3557 7924 3553 7927 3556 7929
      3554 7932 3553 7931 3552 7935 3548 7935
      3545 7959 3582 7956 3607 7939
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 238DEG 32KT 3579 7943

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
627 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW ROSEMARY          36.38N  77.72W
04/20/2015                   HALIFAX            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 903 AND PINEY
            GROVE CHURCH ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500624

GIH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
713 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

NCZ008-009-026-041-210000-
WAKE NC-VANCE NC-GRANVILLE NC-FRANKLIN NC-
713 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN WAKE...SOUTHERN VANCE...SOUTHERN GRANVILLE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 712 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CREEDMOOR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...HENDERSON...CREEDMOOR...LOUISBURG...WAKE FOREST...
FRANKLINTON...KITTRELL...BUNN...ROLESVILLE AND YOUNGSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 7828 3627 7830 3625 7819 3626 7817
      3624 7816 3625 7813 3621 7811 3621 7807
      3615 7804 3612 7806 3592 7819 3576 7870
      3594 7874 3601 7870 3603 7872 3603 7875
      3607 7875 3607 7876 3612 7877 3638 7829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 244DEG 35KT 3605 7864

ELLIS