Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1052 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1052 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TAIL END OF A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CROSSING CENTRAL NC
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH THE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AN
ARRAY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED-
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BULK OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
BY 06Z BUT COULD STILL SEE AN SHOWER OR STORM OCCUR THROUGH 08Z.

STRONG UPDRAFTS IN STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING ABLE HOLD PRECIP
ALOFT...RESULTING IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PERSON COUNTY.

THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY EARLY MORNING
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR NORTH AND NE...GIVING WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SE U.S.
WILL MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
90S. SFC DEWPOINTS PROJECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S-AROUND
70...YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-106 DEGREE RANGE. SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. REMNANTS OF BILL
WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
MUCAPE. SPC IN THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IT WILL DRY OUT LATE THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A STEAMY OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES TO THE MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT DAY.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY MOVING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF BILL AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL SLOWLY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BE CARRIED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
OFF THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
SOUTH...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST WITH SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND LOWEST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO
MID 90S. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES TO THE MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY
MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HARD TO TIME AND PLACE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING EASTWARD IN THE
UPPER FLOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOTHING TO
PUSH THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SO IT WILL SIMPLY PIVOT/MEANDER
TO OUR NORTH.

AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND
NEAR NORMAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S TO THE UPPER 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER... A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC.
AT THIS TIME... NO ONE TAF SITE HAS INCREASED ODDS OF SEEING SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION... THOUGH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY MOVE ACROSS
KRDU/KRWI/KFAY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY CAUSING WIND TO GUSTS AND CHANGE
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS... WITH POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY IFR/LOW END
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES (KRDU/KRWI/KFAY) NEAR
DAYBREAK.

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY... HOT AND DRY IN THE
MORNING AGAIN... WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... WITH
THE BEST CHANCES AT KGSO/KINT WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT KFAY WITH
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN... LOW
VISBYS AND GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...

REC            HI
DAY       MAX    YR     MIN    YR

RDU RECORDS
06/17      99   1961     75   2004
06/18      98   1944     75   1935

GSO RECORDS
06/17      98   1944     76   2004
06/18     100   1944     73   1970

FAY RECORDS
06/17     101   1981     77   1945
06/18     102   1944     76   2004

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ011-
026>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1101 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     HAIL             3 W RALEIGH             35.80N  78.69W
06/17/2015  M0.50 INCH       WAKE               NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500675

WSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1108 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             3 SW RALEIGH            35.78N  78.67W
06/17/2015  M1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NC STATE CAMPUS. LASTED ABOUT 15 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500676

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1109 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

NCZ027-028-043-180415-
WILSON NC-NASH NC-EDGECOMBE NC-
1109 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN WILSON...
SOUTHEASTERN NASH AND SOUTHERN EDGECOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM
EDT...

AT 1108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ELM CITY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKY
MOUNT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL... WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKY MOUNT...WILSON...ELM CITY...SHARPSBURG...PINETOPS...
MACCLESFIELD...SARATOGA...CONETOE...WILLBANKS AND TAR RIVER
RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 7742 3581 7745 3580 7745 3580 7747
      3576 7752 3561 7776 3582 7799 3596 7790
      3582 7741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0308Z 302DEG 15KT 3584 7788

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1115 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW CARY               35.78N  78.81W
06/17/2015                   WAKE               NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE. 100 BLOCK OF HONEYSUCKLE LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500677

WSS

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