Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
303 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM TUESDAY...

AS INITIAL BATCH OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
MCV/MESO-LOW BEGIN EXITS SAMPSON COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A
BAND/LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE NW TO SE THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPERED BY THE MORNING RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS...INSTABILITY
RANGES FROM 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALIGNED ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE
STRONGEST INSOLATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE DEEP 0-6KM LAYER SHEAR IS
DECENT ~25-30KTS...THE BULK OF THE STRONGER FLOW IS CONFINED TO THE
UPPER REGIONS OF THE LAYER. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE MEDIOCRE
DESTABILIZATION...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED AT BEST.  BULK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT OUR SE COUNTIES AOA MIDNIGHT.

DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE COOL FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...AND ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER
SHOULD NOT AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE EXPANSE OF THE THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE
AS WELL WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA WITH MID 60S IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL NC AS AN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS ASIDE
FROM A FEW VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE A
WEAK SHOWER OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS COMING TRUE IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WITH STRENGTHEN AND DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE 4 CORNERS
REGION NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND BREAK
THE STAGNANT PATTERN...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A RETURN TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S...CREEPING BACK UP TO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LATE IN THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...APPROACHING 70 DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 217 PM TUESDAY...

BATCH OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT RESULTED IN SOME IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KFAY WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 20Z. MEANWHILE...JUST
UPSTREAM OVER NC FOOTHILLS...A BROKEN BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NW TO SE AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION
WOULD SUGGEST TIMING OF 18 TO 22Z AT KINT AND KGSO...20 TO 24Z AT
KRDU AND 22 TO 02Z AT KFAY AND KRWI. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...AND COULD PRODUCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER A DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
MASS...LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-122000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
350 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WITHIN THE LINE
MAY PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
642 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

NCZ025-041-112330-
WAKE NC-DURHAM NC-
642 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WAKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF RDU INTERNATIONAL...OR 9
MILES NORTH OF RALEIGH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RALEIGH...CARY...WAKE
FOREST...GARNER...ZEBULON...RDU INTERNATIONAL...APEX...MORRISVILLE
AND KNIGHTDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 7843 3594 7839 3593 7835 3591 7835
      3590 7833 3590 7831 3583 7826 3572 7843
      3571 7847 3552 7871 3552 7872 3574 7884
      3599 7881 3607 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 331DEG 29KT 3596 7869

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
709 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

NCZ040-075-076-120015-
LEE NC-CHATHAM NC-MOORE NC-
709 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF LEE...SOUTHERN
CHATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 709 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOLDSTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SILER
CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANFORD...CARTHAGE...GOLDSTON...BROADWAY...CAMERON...HARPERS
CROSSROADS...CUMNOCK...TRAMWAY...GLENDON AND GUM SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 7938 3551 7958 3552 7955 3556 7955
      3559 7947 3575 7937 3563 7899 3561 7899
      3558 7892 3530 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 296DEG 20KT 3564 7934

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW BUSHY FORK        36.25N  79.10W
08/11/2015                   PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN AT MCCULLOCK LOOP ROAD... TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500949

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW BUSHY FORK        36.24N  79.10W
08/11/2015                   PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN AT HURDLE MILLS ROAD... TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500950

SEC