Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL BRIEFLY TO OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF CENTRAL NC...

MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL FIND ITSELF WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WITH
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS FROM QUEBEC INTO MIDDLE MS
VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT WAYS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING(AFTER
00Z) AND OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER FORCING
IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND LOOKS TO BE LIMITED/CONFINED TO
LOWER-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS WELL REMOVED
FROM THE TROUGH DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY
PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING COVERAGE AS WELL. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 30-
40 PERCENT RANGE. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

STORMS LOOK TO CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03 TO 06Z WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS
TONIGHT 70-75F...COOLEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...

FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NOTICEABLY DRIER-
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC...WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED ACROSS SAMPSON COUNTY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID
90S SOUTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING EASTWARD
ATOP THE RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOP
INVOF OF THE NC/SC STATE LINE. SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AFTER 06Z AND PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
TIER WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF
THE LOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE
TIMING...AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE...TOO MUCH TO WARRANT HIGHER THAN
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60/NEAR 70 NORTHWEST TO
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

 &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

A FRONT WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME MCS ACTIVITY
TRACKING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES...BUT
REGARDLESS PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE (MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST) LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE...PRECIP WILL
DECREASE AGAIN FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
REGION....PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS).
CONVECTION CHANCES ARE THEN PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE REGION..

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AT KGSO AND
KINT WILL BE BETWEEN 18 TO 22Z...AT KRDU BETWEEN 20 TO 24Z...AND AT
KRWI AND KFAY BETWEEN 22 TO 02Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VEERING TO THE NW/NNW AT 5-10 KT
LATE THIS EVENING (00-06Z) AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NC.

LONG TERM: AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NC/SC
STATE LINE ON WEDNESDAY. DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WET CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH...NEAR FAY. DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ010-011-026>028-
041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
431 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-222045-
WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-
WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
431 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084-222045-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
431 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
659 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ074-075-083>085-220000-
SCOTLAND NC-RICHMOND NC-ANSON NC-MOORE NC-MONTGOMERY NC-
659 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SCOTLAND... RICHMOND...NORTHEASTERN ANSON...SOUTH CENTRAL MOORE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 658 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
ANSONVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF ROCKINGHAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKINGHAM...WADESBORO...HAMLET...ANSONVILLE...HOFFMAN...PINEBLUFF...
MOUNT GILEAD...ELLERBE...DOBBINS HEIGHTS AND WAGRAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8018 3515 8016 3516 8016 3518 8011
      3514 8007 3517 8005 3520 8006 3522 8003
      3510 7940 3504 7946 3499 7939 3494 7935
      3486 7934 3480 7935 3479 7944 3489 7996
      3512 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 285DEG 34KT 3507 8006 3506 7978

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
718 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ028-212345-
EDGECOMBE NC-
718 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL EDGECOMBE
COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 717 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TARBORO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TARBORO...PRINCEVILLE...PINETOPS...CONETOE AND KINGSBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 7735 3582 7735 3583 7739 3583 7741
      3581 7742 3581 7745 3580 7745 3580 7747
      3575 7754 3579 7764 3592 7769 3597 7756
      3594 7737 3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 290DEG 26KT 3587 7752

!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAPEL HILL             35.93N  79.04W
07/21/2015                   ORANGE             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE CHAPEL HILL CARRBORO AREAS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500905

RAH