Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1039 AM TUESDAY...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING ARE LEADING TO GREAT
CONDITIONS FOR SOLAR INSOLATION HELPING TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH
THE 70S AND INTO THE LOWER 80S AS OF 14Z. STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 90S TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COUPLED WITH
AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS THERE.
THAT BEING SAID...MANY OF THE PARAMETERS AREN'T PARTICULARLY
ROBUST...THEREFORE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THEY WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEEP INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST THE SHORTWAVE TO CROSS OUR
AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS TODAY WITH MINIMAL THREAT FOR
HAIL OR ANY KIND OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
-ELLIS

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SSE THROUGH IA/IL THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT /TROUGHING/ OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT. DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL
BACK/STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENSUING MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL AID IN MARGINAL TO LOW-END
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DISCONNECT BETWEEN PEAK
HEATING AND THE BEST DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BETWEEN 21-06Z...OR 21-03Z TRIAD TO 00-06Z
TRIANGLE...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE IN THE TRIAD/WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE MID-AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS
IS APT TO PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...IN CLOSER VICINITY TO PEAK
HEATING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST S/SE.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30-35 KT AND 750-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION THIS AFT/EVE...PERHAPS
BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE DEEP
LAYER FORCING WILL BE BETTER JUXTAPOSED (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) WITH
PEAK HEATING AND AN ISOLD POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT GIVEN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AOA 35 KT (MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT) AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE DCAPE (EVAP
COOLING). OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISCONNECT IN FORCING/PEAK HEATING...IN ADDITION TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH
STEEPENING OF THE LATTER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WED/WED NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND/OR MCV'S TRACKING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDWEST/MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS...PRIMARILY WED EVE/NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL EXIST IN ASSOC/W MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE
SEABREEZE AND/OR PIEDMONT TROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING...THOUGH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED/MARGINAL.
GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION  ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY FROM POOR DIURNAL
TIMING/MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES/
COVERAGE IS LOW. WILL INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (~30%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE WED AFT/EVE THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND HIGH
PRESSURE STUCK OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THEREAFTER. SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS
ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. GENERALLY THOUGH...
EXPECT THE USUAL HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFT/EVE AND LOWEST
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURE WISE: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FRIDAY (WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY)...HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRATOCUMULUS STARTING TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BUT GENERALLY 5-10 KTS AND WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING. A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST AND TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER OR NOT STRONGER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE TRIAD AIRPORTS TIMING
FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS IN THIS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
A RAGGED LINE OF STORMS COULD PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AFFECTING KRDU AND KFAY AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF
THE CWA BY 5Z AT THE LATEST. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. AFTER STORMS EXIT
TO THE EAST...EXPECT SOME GENERAL CLEARING WITH SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN 3 TERMINALS. THIS WILL
DISSIPATE AT OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: CENTRAL NC IS SETTING UP TO BE IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ADVERSE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-012000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE PLEASANT GROVE     36.21N  79.31W
06/30/2015                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT 2700 PLEASANT GROVE UNION SCHOOL ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500834

KRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
741 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE SUTPHIN           35.81N  79.33W
06/30/2015                   CHATHAM            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR NEWLIN ROAD AND OLD SWITCHBOARD ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500835

KRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
743 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW SAXAPAHAW         35.94N  79.34W
06/30/2015                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT 6300 S HIGHWAY 87

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500836

KRD