Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SATURDAY...

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ONE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS
DRIVEN BY A COMPACT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND
LINE SEGMENTS. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE ONE OR
TWO CONVECTIVE LINES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD.

THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE IN THE CAROLINAS AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS VA. THE STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE AROUND
30-35 KTS. INSTABILITY WAS RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING AND PRIOR CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SOME
LOCAL STABILIZATION. CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AND RANGE FROM 5.5-6.0 C/KM. STILL GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROVING LARGE SCALE FORCING THE
SPC MAINTAINS AN ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...SPC NOTES THAT A WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NC. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WINDS BUT HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS IN SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO RISK IS SMALL BUT EXISTS
GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE VA BORDER IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WEST AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST. ANTICIPATING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND REFINING MANY DETAILS IN THE
DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL IS PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...THE RECENT FEW
DAYS HAVE BEEN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...SO WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WATCH UP.
-BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING...THUS
ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA TO START THE DAY. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY BE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
(ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT HEAT WAVE)...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S. A CLEAR AND (RELATIVELY) COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS SET UP...ANY SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR (MOSTLY DIURNAL) SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED. INCREASING POPS SLIGHTLY MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT MAKE ALL
THE WAY INTO NC...POSSIBLY STALLING OUT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD...WIDESPREAD CUMULUS AND STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC HAS RESULTED IN MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
LIKELY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AT KRDU AND KRWI DURING THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS AND LINE
SEGMENTS AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. ANY VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD END THE KINT AND KGSO TRIAD TERMINALS AT AROUND 03Z AND
CLOSER TO 06Z AT THE KRWI AND KFAY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND ARE EXCEPTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
INCLUDING SUNDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE TREAT
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AND
INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ009>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-
089. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007-008-021>025-
038>040-073>076-083-084.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BLAES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
433 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ009>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-282045-
VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-
HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
433 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084-282045-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-
RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
433 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
458 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ021-038-272145-
DAVIDSON NC-FORSYTH NC-
458 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DAVIDSON
AND SOUTHERN FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLEMMONS...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
WINSTON-SALEM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINSTON-SALEM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...KERNERSVILLE...CLEMMONS...
MIDWAY...ARCADIA...WELCOME AND SEDGE GARDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.VERY HEAVY RAINFALL

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8041 3589 8037 3590 8037 3596 8038
      3598 8041 3607 8041 3611 8004 3581 8005
      3586 8039 3587 8039 3588 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 268DEG 17KT 3596 8033

22

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
540 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE HASTY             35.62N  79.44W
06/27/2015                   CHATHAM            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON EDWARDS HILL CHURCH ROAD NEAR
            PROVIDENCE CHURCH ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500805

KC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
559 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ074>076-083-084-086-272300-
RICHMOND NC-ANSON NC-MOORE NC-HOKE NC-MONTGOMERY NC-LEE NC-
559 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF RICHMOND...
SOUTHEASTERN ANSON...MOORE...NORTHWESTERN HOKE...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY AND WEST CENTRAL LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
SOUTH OF TROY TO NEAR ANSONVILLE TO NEAR WADESBORO...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL ABND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PINES...ROCKINGHAM...CARTHAGE...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
BISCOE...HOFFMAN...WHISPERING PINES...PINEBLUFF AND ROBBINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS. TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 7998 3510 7997 3535 7987 3551 7959
      3552 7935 3553 7931 3554 7932 3555 7930
      3556 7929 3554 7929 3553 7927 3557 7924
      3546 7930 3517 7931 3506 7939
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 236DEG 27KT 3526 7993 3507 8004 3491 8004

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
600 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     TORNADO          1 NW CUMNOCK            35.55N  79.24W
06/27/2015                   LEE                NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT THE 421/421 BUSINESS
            INTERCHANGE. TORNADO RESULTED IN A COUPLE TREES DOWN AND
            MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500806

KC