Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
743 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT...

CURRENT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES IS
PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING BUT WHILE THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
BUILDING ALONG A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
FORCING AT THE MOMENT TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY FOR TOO LONG. THEREFORE
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...FORCING WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE NORTH AS A WAVE MOVES DOWN OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE NE PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KTS...AND
HELICITY ON THE RISE AS WELL...CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 03Z. THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO SPINUP ALONG THE LINE. AS A RESULT OF
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS EXTENDING AN AREA OF ENHANCED RISK DOWN ACROSS
HALIFAX...WARREN...AND VANCE COUNTIES WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK
ELSEWHERE.

SOME MITIGATING FACTORS AGAINST POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE THE
LATER TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REACHING NC WHICH WILL BE WELL AFTER
PEAK HEATING CONCLUDES. IN ADDITION A CAP IS EXPECTED TO FORM WHICH
WOULD CUT OFF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY..BUT COULD STILL SUSTAIN
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MOST LIKELY
FOR POINTS EAST OF OUR CWA. WOULD EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO
CLEAR THE AREA BY 9Z.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...

THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
WITH SOME BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD...PRECIP SHOULD
BE AT A MINIMUM DURING THE DAY (COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS). HOWEVER...
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES DURING
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH GETS CLOSER...THEREFORE A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY (LIKELY OUR LAST FOR THIS
CURRENT HEAT WAVE)...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING A HEAT ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 KNOTS. MORE UNCERTAIN WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
SINCE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LIMITING
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. REGARDLESS...MODELS PROG MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION AND SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOME BY
THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MOSTLY MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ACTUALLY BEING BELOW NORMAL. LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL SET UP
OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH IT BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS SET
UP...ANY SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE...WITH MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM THURSDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY
OF KRDU WITH A THUNDERSTORM HEADED FOR THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHER
TERMINALS NOT AFFECTED AT THIS TIME BUT KRWI AND KFAY COULD SEE
VICINITY SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION COMING OUT OF EASTERN KY COULD AFFECT
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH KRWI THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER CONVECTION BUT KRDU AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KGSO AND KINT ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE PICTURE EITHER.
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS STRONG WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
ARE PROBABLE. AFTER STORMS PASS OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

LONG TERM: THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS IN THE LONG TERM
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

          REC
DAY       MAX    YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25     100   1952
06/26     102   1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25     101   1914
06/26     102   1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25     102   1914
06/26     101   1951

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
408 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCZ021>025-038>042-073>078-083>086-088-089-262015-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
408 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>011-026>028-043-262015-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON-
408 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
758 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             4 SW DURHAM             35.95N  78.97W
06/25/2015  E0.75 INCH       DURHAM             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR CORNER OF CHAPEL HILL RD
            AND GARRETT RD IN DURHAM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500756

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE BUSHY FORK         36.36N  79.04W
06/25/2015                   PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN IN A YARD ON THE 3056 BLOCK OF BURLINGTON RD
            NEAR ROXBORO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500757

KC

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