Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 28, NWS Raleigh, NC

December 23, 2015Chatham County, Lee County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this river flood warning at Dec 23, 2015, 2:27 PM EST for Chatham County, Lee County, North Carolina. It took effect at Dec 23, 2015, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 29 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 23, 2015, 2:27 PM EST (19:27 UTC)
In effect from: Dec 23, 2015, 7:00 PM EST
Expired: Dec 24, 2015, 11:48 PM EST
In force: 29 hr
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Chatham County, NC, Lee County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Deep River near Moncure (MONN7). The gauge peaked at 11.15 ft at Dec 24, 2015, 12:00 AM EST.

Action stage: 8 ft
Minor stage: 9 ft
Moderate stage: 14 ft
Major stage: 18 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02102000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

490 
WGUS42 KRAH 231927
FLWRAH


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
227 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015



...The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
Flood Warning for the following rivers in North Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties
Widespread rainfall of 2 to 3 inches have fallen over the Deep River basin
during the past 48 hours. Another 1 to possibly 2 inches are expected 
through tonight. This will cause minor flooding on the river at Moncure..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-240727-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FL.W.0028.151224T0000Z-151225T0448Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.151224T0000Z.151224T0600Z.151224T1648Z.NO/
227 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Deep River At Moncure.
* from this evening to Thursday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  1:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  evening and continue to rise to near 9.4 feet by after midnight. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding is likely upstream
  of the gage site along North Plank Road just south of highway 421 
  in Lee county, and on R Jordan Road north of highway 421 in Chatham
  county. At the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river 
  gage housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately 
  adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Cape Fear
 Moncure           9   8.1 Wed 02 PM   9.4   7.3   5.6   4.5   3.6


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

Moncure:        150.00

&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

4 follow-up statements

274 
WGUS82 KRAH 240138
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
838 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015





...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

  Haw River Near Bynum affecting Chatham County

  Lower Little River At Manchester affecting Cumberland County

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-241338-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151225T1840Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.151223T1930Z.151224T1200Z.151225T0640Z.NO/
838 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At  7:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 12.1 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. Upstream of the gage 
  site, North Plank Road in Lee county and R Jordan Road in Chatham 
  county are closed. At the gage site, there is significant flooding 
  of pasture and woods along the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Cape Fear
  Moncure      9  10.6 Wed 08 PM    12.1   8.2   5.4   4.3   3.6


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Moncure:        150.00


&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

NCC037-241337-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-151225T2320Z/
/BYNN7.1.ER.151223T1355Z.151224T1200Z.151225T1120Z.NO/
838 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River Near Bynum.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.3 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, The river widens up to 800 feet across, but 
  flooding remains confined to extensive stretches of woods and 
  pastureland along the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Haw River
  Bynum       11  13.6 Wed 08 PM    14.3  10.9   8.6   7.3   6.5


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:


        Bynum:          283.31


&&

LAT...LON 3590 7918 3582 7911 3576 7905 3569 7916
          3585 7930                   

$$

NCC051-241337-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0026.151224T1200Z-151227T1617Z/
/MANN7.1.ER.151224T1200Z.151225T1200Z.151227T0417Z.NO/
838 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lower Little River At Manchester.
* from Thursday morning to Sunday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow 
  morning and continue to rise to near 21.2 feet by Friday 
  morning.The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday before 
  midnight.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, Minor flooding begins on Manchester Road near
  the Fort Bragg water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Lower Little River
  Manchester  18  15.8 Wed 08 PM    18.0  21.2  19.8  17.1  14.9


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Manchester:     122.16



&&

LAT...LON 3524 7890 3522 7889 3517 7898 3516 7910
          3519 7910 3521 7898         

$$

NCC101-241337-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151225T2200Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151223T2125Z.151224T1800Z.151225T1000Z.NO/
838 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.8 feet by 
  tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, The Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge 
  Road begins to flood.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Neuse River
  Clayton      9   9.7 Wed 08 PM    10.7   8.8   6.4   4.4   3.2


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Clayton:        128.41



&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-241337-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-151227T0051Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151223T1837Z.151225T0000Z.151226T1251Z.NO/
838 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.6 feet by 
  tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The Smithfield town 
  park and the Neuse riverwalk at the US70 bridge are flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Neuse River
  Smithfield  15  16.4 Wed 08 PM    17.4  17.3  15.1  12.2   9.3


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Smithfield:      99.26



&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

527 
WGUS82 KRAH 241018
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015





...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Haw River At Haw River affecting Alamance County

  Rocky River Near Norwood affecting Anson and Stanly Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina..
  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Haw River Near Bynum affecting Chatham County

  Lower Little River At Manchester affecting Cumberland County

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151225T1840Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.151223T1930Z.151224T1200Z.151225T0640Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At  3:45 AM Thursday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will fall below flood stage late tonight.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Flooding will occur upstream of the gage site along 
  North Plank Road, especially just south of Highway 421 in Lee county, and 
  on R Jordan Road in Chatham county. Road closures may result. At the gage site, 
  flooding of pasture and woods along the river will occur.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon  

Cape Fear
  Moncure      9  11.1 Thu 04 AM    11.1   7.6   4.1   3.5   3.5


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 150.00

       
&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

NCC085-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-151226T1418Z/
/LLLN7.1.ER.151224T0515Z.151225T0000Z.151226T0218Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At  4:30 AM Thursday the stage was 15.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.8 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late 
  evening.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Water may enter homes on Riverside Hills Drive, and
  the storm drains on the north bank are inundated.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon  

Cape Fear
  Lillington  14  15.0 Thu 04 AM    17.4  17.0  12.0   9.6   8.8


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 104.60
     

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC001-242218-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-151225T0613Z/
/HAWN7.1.ER.151224T0435Z.151224T1200Z.151224T1813Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River At Haw River.
* At  4:30 AM Thursday the stage was 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will fall below flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Overflow will occur on both banks at the water
  treatment plant, with the the most overflow on the right 
  bank opposite the water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   

Haw River
  Haw River   18  18.6 Thu 04 AM    18.3  13.5   9.9   7.4   6.0


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 471.69
     

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7953 3613 7934 3590 7918 3585 7930
          3604 7944 3613 7954         

$$

NCC037-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-151225T2320Z/
/BYNN7.1.ER.151223T1355Z.151224T0846Z.151225T1120Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River Near Bynum.
* At  4:31 AM Thursday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, The river widens up to 600 feet across, but 
  flooding remains confined to extensive stretches of woods and 
  pastureland along the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Haw River
  Bynum       11  14.3 Thu 05 AM    14.3  10.9   8.6   7.3   6.5


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 283.31
      

&&

LAT...LON 3590 7918 3582 7911 3576 7905 3569 7916
          3585 7930                   

$$

NCC051-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0026.151224T1200Z-151227T1617Z/
/MANN7.1.ER.151224T1200Z.151225T1200Z.151227T0417Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lower Little River At Manchester.
* until Sunday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:45 AM Thursday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage today
  and continue to rise to near 21 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Saturday night.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs in Fort Bragg, near the 
  water treatment plant. The water may also approach Manchester Road near
  the Fort Bragg water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon  

Lower Little River
  Manchester  18  16.3 Thu 05 AM    18.0  21.2  19.8  17.1  14.9


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 122.16
       

&&

LAT...LON 3524 7890 3522 7889 3517 7898 3516 7910
          3519 7910 3521 7898         

$$

NCC101-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151225T2200Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151223T2125Z.151224T1800Z.151225T1000Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  4:15 AM Thursday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early tomorrow.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, The Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge 
  Road will flood.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Neuse River
  Clayton      9  10.8 Thu 04 AM    10.7   8.8   6.4   4.4   3.2


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 128.41
    
    
&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-151227T0051Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151223T1837Z.151225T0000Z.151226T1251Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  4:15 AM Thursday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.6 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The Smithfield town 
  park and the Neuse riverwalk at the US70 bridge are flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   

Neuse River
  Smithfield  15  17.4 Thu 04 AM    17.4  17.3  15.1  12.2   9.3


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 99.26
      

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC007-167-242218-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-151225T0154Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.151224T0048Z.151224T0430Z.151224T1354Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rocky River Near Norwood.
* At  4:30 AM Thursday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Minor flood stage. There is significant 
  overflow into adjacent pasture and lowlands.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon 

Rocky River
  Norwood     20  20.4 Thu 04 AM    20.7  10.7   5.6   4.2   3.6


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 212.91
      

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

291 
WGUS82 KRAH 241528
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1028 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-250328-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151225T1320Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.151223T1930Z.151224T0515Z.151225T0120Z.NO/
1028 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At  9:45 AM Thursday the stage was 10.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding is likely upstream
  of the gage site along North Plank Road just south of highway 421 
  in Lee county, and on R Jordan Road north of highway 421 in Chatham
  county. At the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river 
  gage housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately 
  adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue

Cape Fear
  Moncure      9  10.0 Thu 10 AM           7.5   5.5   4.7   3.8


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Moncure:        150.00
        
&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

164 
WGUS82 KRAH 242358
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
658 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-250028-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151225T1320Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.151223T1930Z.151224T0515Z.151224T2052Z.NO/
658 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At  5:45 PM Thursday the stage was 8.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* fell below flood stage at  3:52 PM Thursday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 7.5 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding is likely upstream
  of the gage site along North Plank Road just south of highway 421 
  in Lee county, and on R Jordan Road north of highway 421 in Chatham
  county. At the gage site, flooding reaches the base of the river 
  gage housing, but is confined to woods and pasture immediately 
  adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue

Cape Fear
 Moncure           9   8.9 Thu 06 PM   7.5   5.5   4.7   3.8   3.3


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

	Moncure:        150.00


&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 23, 1:15 PM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 1:15 PM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY TODAY...THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A MARITIME WARM FRONT
THAT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL THEN DIRECT UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...

DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX
PW OF 1.8 INCHES AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 14-15C...CONTINUES AROUND THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A WEDGE FRONT
IS HOLDING FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE NC WESTERN PIEDMONT AND INTO
UPSTATE SC...WHILE A COASTAL WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND
AS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE...PERIODICALLY DISPERSED BY
SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT.  NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE WEDGE FRONT ERODING AND 60S DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
FORSYTH CO THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING
EDGE OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 500
J/KG...WILL ALSO CONTINUE INLAND...ALTHOUGH WITH RAIN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS IN THE PIEDMONT IT'S STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR HOW FAR
INLAND THE WARM SECTOR WILL MIX.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 45-
50KT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE IS BEST.  LOW-LEVEL IS
ENHANCED BY A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND SHERBE
VALUES ARE PROGGED AROUND 1 THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
GOING AGAINST THE SEVERE THREAT IS A GENERAL LACK OF A FOCUS...AS A
NOTABLE MCV OVER NORTHERN GA SHOULD MOVE MORE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A SMALL CAPPING INVERSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT WOULD LIMIT THE ALREADY WEAK MUCAPE.
HOWEVER...THE SPC MARGINAL RISK STILL LOOKS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AND UNUSUAL AIRMASS FOR LATE DECEMBER.

THE FLOODING THREAT...WHILE IT HASN'T MATERIALIZED IN THE
WEST...STILL EXISTS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV MOVING UP FROM GA.
THE HRRR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP...INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE
LOOKING...OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...A
FEW RIVERS...INCLUDING THE ROCKY RIVER AND HAW RIVER...ARE EITHER
EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD. SO WE WILL
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 60S IN THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE
70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE 65-75 RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. -22

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP OUT OF THE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...AGAIN HAVING A GOOD CHANCE OF MATCHING THE ALL-TIME
WARMEST DECEMBER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD(RDU-69...FAY-69...GSO-
65).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...

ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA. WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AN
ASSOCIATED PROBABLE CAPPING INVERSION DEPICTED ON NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS...THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE A DRY ONE...THOUGH DIURNAL
HEATING OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM (70S TO AROUND 80 IN IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR) AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO BYPASS
THE CAP AND GROW INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...AN
UPSTREAM QLCS...IN A REGION OF RESIDUALLY STRONG H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DIRECTED INTO THE TN VALLEY...MAY SUPPORT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A WEAKENING LONE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND DRIFT INTO WESTERN NC...INCLUDING THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT EARLY THU NIGHT. INCREASING CINH WITH NOCTURNAL "COOLING"
INTO THE 60S FAVORS A DRY NIGHT OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL MAINTAIN A
VERY MILD-WARM REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AND A WET ONE PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL NC...AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE
POSITIONING OF A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOW MUCH SUPPRESSION OF
THE WARMTH OCCURS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...DICTATED BY A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND CONFLUENT SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT/UNDERLYING POLAR HIGHS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY THIS WEEKEND.

THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGES INTO NC...IF THEY
OCCUR...ARE FAVORED LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT-
MON...WITH THE FORMER APPEARING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE UNSEASONABLY MILD-WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL. THE
PRIMARY BRANCH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE BLOCKED TO THE NW BY
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING...SO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (GENERALLY AOB 20 PERCENT) AND
INSTEAD DRIVEN BY LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM PERTURBATIONS AND
ASSOCIATED SURGES OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND BRIEF EROSION
OF A CAPPING INVERSION FRI-SAT...WITH SAID CAPPING MORE LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY DIURNAL HEATING IN AN AIRMASS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF
APRIL-MAY THAN LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA WILL
LIFT CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY AT
KFAY/KRWI...WITH LOWER CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CEILINGS TO HANG ON
AT KGSO/KINT.  WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KT...MAINLY AT
KRDU/KRWI/KFAY...A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR AGAIN.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG...BUT WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-12KT
RANGE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP VSBYS AT LEAST 3SM.  SOME SMALL
IMPROVEMENTS WIN CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH LESS PRECIP COVERAGE...THOUGH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...WITH DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THIS
WEEKEND...PERIODS OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE AREA RECORD MAXIMUMS AND HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 24TH
AND 25TH. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE GREENSBORO AREA SINCE
1903... IN THE RALEIGH AREA SINCE 1887... AND IN THE FAYETTEVILLE
AREA SINCE 1910.

DEC 24:       RECORD MAXIMUM   HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO    71 (1964)        52 (1904)
RALEIGH       75 (1931)        59 (1891)
FAYETTEVILLE  78 (1931)        66 (1990)

DEC 25:       RECORD MAXIMUM   HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO    74 (1955)        58 (1932)
RALEIGH       75 (1955)        63 (1932)
FAYETTEVILLE  79 (1932)        68 (1932)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...2
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD/BLAES

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 23, 4:40 AM EST, 9 hours 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-084-240945-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
RICHMOND-
440 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089-240945-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
440 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG US HIGHWAY 1. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 23, 9:02 AM EST, 5 hours 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
902 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ021-022-038-231700-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE
902 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THIS
MORNING...

POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO JUST A HUNDRED
FEET OR SO...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THIS
MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DISPERSE THE FOG AT TIMES...AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 23, 8:03 AM EST	Tornado Warning	RAH	Sampson	28 min
Dec 23, 8:24 AM EST	River Flood Warning	RAH	Chatham	49 hr
Dec 23, 10:51 AM EST	River Flood Warning	RAH	Johnston	71 hr
Dec 23, 10:58 AM EST	River Flood Warning	RAH	Cumberland	3 days
Dec 23, 11:39 AM EST	River Flood Warning	RAH	Johnston	43 hr
Dec 23, 12:21 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Durham, Orange	114 min
Dec 23, 3:30 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Anson, Davidson, Montgomery, Moore, Randolph, Richmond and 1 more	60 min
Dec 23, 4:05 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Alamance, Anson, Davidson, Guilford, Montgomery, Randolph and 1 more	55 min
Dec 23, 4:13 PM EST	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Anson, Montgomery, Moore, Richmond, Stanly	3 hr
Dec 23, 4:47 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Alamance, Chatham, Lee, Moore, Orange	58 min
Dec 23, 5:03 PM EST	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Durham, Orange, Wake	3 hr
Dec 23, 5:09 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Alamance, Chatham, Lee, Moore, Orange	51 min
Dec 23, 5:32 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Person	58 min
Dec 23, 5:39 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Granville, Person, Wake	51 min
Dec 23, 5:41 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke	64 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2015 Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.