River Flood Warning 13, NWS Raleigh, NC

597 
WGUS82 KRAH 020206
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1006 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Haw River At Haw River affecting Alamance County
  Haw River Near Bynum affecting Chatham County
  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County
  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County
  
Rainfall ranging up to 2 inches has been widespread across the area
during the past few days. An additional 3 to 5 inches are likely 
through early this weekend, which will cause flooding on both the 
upper Neuse river in Johnston county and the Haw River in Alamance 
and Chatham Counties.
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC001-021406-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0010.151003T0418Z-151004T1200Z/
/HAWN7.1.ER.151003T0418Z.151003T1200Z.151004T0000Z.NO/
1006 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Haw River At Haw River.
* from late Friday night to Sunday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Thursday the stage was 4.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by early Saturday 
  morning   and continue to rise to near 22.4 feet by Saturday 
  morning.The   river will fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, Flooding reaches the base of the water 
  treatment plant building.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue

Haw River
  Haw River   18   4.6 Thu 09 PM     4.9  22.4  12.8   7.8   5.3

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Haw River:      471.69

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7953 3613 7934 3590 7918 3585 7930
          3604 7944 3613 7954         

$$

NCC037-021406-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0011.151003T1024Z-151004T1715Z/
/BYNN7.1.ER.151003T1024Z.151003T1800Z.151004T0515Z.NO/
1006 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Haw River Near Bynum.
* from Saturday morning to Sunday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Thursday the stage was 5.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Saturday 
  morning and continue to rise to near 12.0 feet by Saturday early 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage by early Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, The river widens up to 400 feet across. It 
  floods pasturelands on the right bank and woodlands on the left.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue

Haw River
  Bynum       11   5.3 Thu 09 PM     5.1  11.4  10.1   7.1   5.8

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Bynum:          283.31
  
&&

LAT...LON 3590 7918 3582 7911 3576 7905 3569 7916
          3585 7930                   

$$

NCC101-021406-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0012.151003T1612Z-151004T0900Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151003T1612Z.151003T1800Z.151003T2100Z.NO/
1006 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* from Saturday afternoon to late Saturday night, or until the 
  warning is cancelled.
* At  9:15 PM Thursday the stage was 2.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Saturday early 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 9.3 feet by Saturday early 
  afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail. At 10.0 feet, 
  the Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge Road begins to flood. 

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue

Neuse River
  Clayton      9   2.5 Thu 09 PM     2.6   8.3   5.6   3.1   2.5

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Clayton:        128.41

&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-021406-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.151003T2046Z-151005T0527Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151003T2046Z.151004T0600Z.151004T1727Z.NO/
1006 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* from Saturday afternoon to late Sunday night, or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At 9:15 PM Thursday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Saturday 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 16.1 feet by early Sunday 
  morning.The river will fall below flood stage by Sunday early 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Flooding begins along the Neuse riverwalk. 
  Water nears the base of the holding tank at the water treatment 
  plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue

Neuse River
  Smithfield  15   6.6 Thu 09 PM     7.3  12.4  16.0  11.2   7.9

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Smithfield:      99.26

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

795 
WGUS82 KRAH 020919
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
519 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015





...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina..
  Haw River At Haw River affecting Alamance County
  Haw River Near Bynum affecting Chatham County
  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County
  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC001-022119-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.151003T0418Z-151004T1200Z/
/HAWN7.1.ER.151003T0418Z.151003T1200Z.151004T0000Z.NO/
519 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River At Haw River.
* from late tonight to Sunday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  4:45 AM Friday the stage was 4.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by after midnight 
  tomorrow and continue to rise to near 22.4 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* Impact...25.0 feet, The water treatment plant begins to flood.
  At 26.0 feet, homes adjacent to the river near the I85/I40
  intersection begin to flood and evacuations may be necessary

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed

Haw River
  Haw River   18   4.6 Fri 05 AM     4.9  22.4  12.8   7.8   5.3


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:


############DELETE STATIONS BELOW THAT ARE NOT APPLICABLE##########


        Haw River:      471.69
        

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7953 3613 7934 3590 7918 3585 7930
          3604 7944 3613 7954         

$$

NCC037-022118-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0011.151003T1024Z-151004T1715Z/
/BYNN7.1.ER.151003T1024Z.151003T1800Z.151004T0515Z.NO/
519 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River Near Bynum.
* from Saturday morning to Sunday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  4:45 AM Friday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow 
  morning and continue to rise to near 12.0 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by early Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet there is extensive flooding which is confined
  mainly to pastureland and woods adjacent to the river. Flooding
  will threaten several homes along the right bank of the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed

Haw River
  Bynum       11   5.0 Fri 05 AM     5.1  11.4  10.1   7.1   5.8


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:


############DELETE STATIONS BELOW THAT ARE NOT APPLICABLE##########


      
        Bynum:          283.31
        

&&

LAT...LON 3590 7918 3582 7911 3576 7905 3569 7916
          3585 7930                   

$$

NCC101-022118-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0012.151003T1612Z-151004T0900Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151003T1612Z.151003T1800Z.151003T2100Z.NO/
519 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* from Saturday afternoon to late Saturday night, or until the 
  warning is cancelled.
* At  4:15 AM Friday the stage was 2.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow early 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 9.3 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, the Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge
  Road begins to flood. Near 13 feet, there will be extensive
  flooding which will close the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed

Neuse River
  Clayton      9   2.3 Fri 04 AM     2.6   8.3   5.6   3.1   2.5


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:


############DELETE STATIONS BELOW THAT ARE NOT APPLICABLE##########

        
        Clayton:        128.41
      


&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-022118-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.151003T2046Z-151005T0527Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151003T2046Z.151004T0600Z.151004T1727Z.NO/
519 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* from Saturday afternoon to late Sunday night, or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  4:46 AM Friday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 16.1 feet by early Sunday 
  morning.The river will fall below flood stage by Sunday early 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, flooding begins along the Neuse riverwalk.
  At 18.0 feet, which is the moderate flood stage, the Smithfield
  town park and the Neuse riverwalk at the US70 bridge are flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed

Neuse River
  Smithfield  15   6.8 Fri 05 AM     7.3  12.4  16.0  11.2   7.9


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:


############DELETE STATIONS BELOW THAT ARE NOT APPLICABLE##########


        
        Smithfield:      99.26
       

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

288 
WGUS82 KRAH 021536
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1136 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County
  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Soils across the Neuse basin are saturated due to rainfall ranging 
between 1 and 2 inches over the past few days. An additional 2-3 inches
are expected today, which will likely cause minor flooding on the 
Neuse in Johnston county. 

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-030336-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0012.151004T0600Z-151004T1800Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.NO/
1136 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* from late Saturday night to Sunday afternoon, or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At 10:15 AM Friday the stage was 2.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Sunday
  morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed

Neuse River
 Clayton           9   2.3 Fri 10 AM   5.9   8.0   4.5   2.9   2.4


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Clayton:        128.41


&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-030336-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.151004T0800Z-151005T1415Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151004T0800Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0215Z.NO/
1136 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* from late Saturday night to Monday morning, or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At 10:15 AM Friday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Sunday morning 
  and continue to rise to near 15.6 feet Sunday afternoon.The
  river will fall below flood stage Sunday night.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. 
  
&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15   6.8 Fri 10 AM  11.4  15.4  13.5   9.3   7.3


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:


        Smithfield:      99.26
 

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

460 
WGUS82 KRAH 030243
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1043 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County
  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-031443-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0012.151003T2308Z-151004T1312Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151003T2308Z.151004T0000Z.151004T0112Z.NO/
1043 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* from Saturday evening to Sunday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10:15 PM Friday the stage was 4.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage, and continue 
  to rise to near 9.1 feet by tomorrow evening.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed

Neuse River
  Clayton      9   4.6 Fri 10 PM     7.0   8.0   5.1   3.5   2.7

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Clayton:        128.41

&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-031443-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.151004T0800Z-151005T1525Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151004T0800Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0325Z.NO/
1043 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* from late Saturday night to Monday morning, or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At 10:31 PM Friday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Sunday morning 
  and continue to rise to near 15.5 feet by Sunday early 
  afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by Sunday before 
  midnight.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. Water nears the base of the holding tank at the 
  water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed

Neuse River
  Smithfield  15   7.8 Fri 11 PM    11.2  15.2  13.9  10.4   8.0

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Smithfield:      99.26

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

136 
WGUS82 KRAH 030956
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
556 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Lower Little River At Manchester affecting Cumberland County
  Haw River At Haw River affecting Alamance County
  Haw River Near Bynum affecting Chatham County
  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County
  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County
  Rocky River Near Norwood affecting Anson and Stanly Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.  Remain away
from streams running high and flowing fast.

&&

NCC001-032156-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.151003T1500Z-151004T0900Z/
/HAWN7.1.ER.151003T1500Z.151003T1800Z.151003T2100Z.NO/
556 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River At Haw River.
* Until the warning is cancelled.
* At 5:30 AM Saturday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river should rise above flood stage by late this 
  morning and continue to rise to near 18.4 feet by this 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, overflow begins on both banks at the water 
  treatment plant. 

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   

Haw River
 Haw River        18  14.0 Sat 05 AM  13.1  11.8   8.4   6.3      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Haw River:      471.69

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7953 3613 7934 3590 7918 3585 7930
          3604 7944 3613 7954         

$$

NCC037-032156-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0011.151003T2248Z-151004T1400Z/
/BYNN7.1.ER.151003T2248Z.151004T0000Z.151004T0200Z.NO/
556 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River Near Bynum.
* Until the warning is cancelled.
* At 4:45 AM Saturday the stage was 7.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river should rise above flood stage by this evening 
  and continue to rise to near 11.1 feet this evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage overnight tonight.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, the river widens up to 400 feet across. It 
  floods pasturelands on the right bank and woodlands on the left.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   

Haw River
 Bynum            11   7.2 Sat 05 AM  10.2   8.3   6.9   5.9      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Bynum:          283.31
        
&&

LAT...LON 3590 7918 3582 7911 3576 7905 3569 7916
          3585 7930                   

$$

NCC051-032155-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0014.151003T0947Z-151005T0200Z/
/MANN7.1.ER.151003T0900Z.151003T1800Z.151004T1400Z.NO/
556 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lower Little River At Manchester.
* Until the warning is cancelled.
* At 5:30 AM Saturday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding was occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to 18.5 feet this
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, which is flood stage, minor flood problems begin in 
  Fort Bragg near the water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   

Lower Little River
 Manchester       18  18.4 Sat 05 AM  18.1  16.5  14.2  12.2      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Manchester:     122.16
        
&&

LAT...LON 3524 7890 3522 7889 3517 7898 3516 7910
          3519 7910 3521 7898         

$$

NCC101-032155-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0012.151003T2308Z-151004T1312Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151003T2308Z.151004T0000Z.151004T0112Z.NO/
556 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* Until the warning is cancelled.
* At 5:15 AM Saturday the stage was 6.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river should rise above flood stage by this evening 
  and continue to rise to near 9.1 feet this evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage overnight tonight.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   

Neuse River
 Clayton           9   6.3 Sat 05 AM   8.0   5.1   3.5   2.7      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Clayton:        128.41
       
&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-032155-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.151004T0800Z-151005T1525Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151004T0800Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0325Z.NO/
556 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* Until the warning is cancelled.
* At 5:15 AM Saturday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river should will rise above flood stage by early tomorrow 
  and continue to rise to near 15.5 feet by Sunday afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, which is minor flood stage, flooding begins
  along the Neuse riverwalk. Water nears the base of the holding tank at
  the water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  10.8 Sat 05 AM  15.2  13.9  10.4   8.0      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Smithfield:      99.26
       
&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC007-167-032155-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0015.151003T1258Z-151004T1724Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.151003T1258Z.151003T1800Z.151004T0524Z.NO/
556 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rocky River Near Norwood.
* Until the warning is cancelled.
* At 5:15 AM Saturday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this morning 
  and continue to rise to near 29.3 feet this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage Sunday.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet, there is widespread flooding of pasture and 
  lowlands adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed  

Rocky River
 Norwood          20  15.6 Sat 05 AM  13.1   6.6   3.4   2.1      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Norwood:        212.91


&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

031 
WGUS82 KRAH 031528
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015





...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Haw River At Haw River affecting Alamance County
  Haw River Near Bynum affecting Chatham County
  Lower Little River At Manchester affecting Cumberland County
  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County
  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County
  Rocky River Near Norwood affecting Anson and Stanly Counties
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC001-040328-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-151004T1320Z/
/HAWN7.1.ER.151003T1216Z.151003T1445Z.151004T0120Z.NO/
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River At Haw River.
* At 10:45 AM Saturday the stage was 19.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, There is significant overflow on the right 
  bank opposite the water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Haw River
 Haw River        18  19.3 Sat 11 AM  14.6   9.8   6.9   4.8   4.1


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Haw River:      471.69



&&

LAT...LON 3624 7953 3613 7934 3590 7918 3585 7930
          3604 7944 3613 7954         

$$

NCC037-040328-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0011.151003T1519Z-151005T0040Z/
/BYNN7.1.ER.151003T1345Z.151004T0000Z.151004T1240Z.NO/
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River Near Bynum.
* until Sunday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 11:01 AM Saturday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 12.3 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, The river widens up to 400 feet across. It 
  floods pasturelands on the right bank and woodlands on the left.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Haw River
 Bynum            11  11.7 Sat 11 AM  11.1   8.2   6.6   5.5   4.9


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Bynum:          283.31



&&

LAT...LON 3590 7918 3582 7911 3576 7905 3569 7916
          3585 7930                   

$$

NCC051-040328-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-151005T1200Z/
/MANN7.1.ER.151003T0900Z.151003T1800Z.151005T0000Z.NO/
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lower Little River At Manchester.
* At 11:00 AM Saturday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.5 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, which is flood stage, minor flood problems begin in 
  Fort Bragg near the water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Lower Little River
 Manchester       18  20.1 Sat 11 AM  19.1  17.9  15.9  13.4  11.9


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Manchester:     122.16



&&

LAT...LON 3524 7890 3522 7889 3517 7898 3516 7910
          3519 7910 3521 7898         

$$

NCC101-040328-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0012.151004T0000Z-151004T1200Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151004T0000Z.151004T0000Z.151004T0000Z.NO/
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* from this evening to Sunday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10:15 AM Saturday the stage was 7.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage this 
  evening.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Neuse River
 Clayton           9   7.4 Sat 10 AM   8.3   5.0   5.6   5.1   5.0


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Clayton:        128.41



&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-040328-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.151004T0112Z-151005T1648Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151004T0112Z.151004T1200Z.151005T0448Z.NO/
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* from this evening to Monday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10:15 AM Saturday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tonight and 
  continue to rise to near 15.6 feet by tomorrow morning.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. Water nears the base of the holding tank at the 
  water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  12.5 Sat 10 AM  15.6  13.9  12.7  12.2  11.6


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Smithfield:      99.26



&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC007-167-040328-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-151004T1807Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.151003T1124Z.151003T1800Z.151004T0607Z.NO/
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rocky River Near Norwood.
* At 11:00 AM Saturday the stage was 24.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 27.1 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage after midnight 
  tomorrow.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet, There is widespread flooding of pasture and 
  lowlands adjacent to the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Rocky River
 Norwood          20  24.6 Sat 11 AM  15.1   7.1   4.5   2.6   2.1


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Norwood:        212.91


&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

175 
WGUS82 KRAH 040142
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
942 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County
  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-041342-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-151004T1800Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.NO/
942 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  9:15 PM Saturday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage after 
  midnight.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Neuse River
  Clayton      9   8.7 Sat 09 PM     8.1   4.0   3.1   2.7   2.4

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Clayton:        128.41

&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-041342-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-151005T1520Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151004T0359Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0320Z.NO/
942 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  9:15 PM Saturday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tonight and 
  continue to rise to near 16.0 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.The 
  river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Flooding begins along the   Neuse riverwalk. 
  Water nears the base of the holding tank at the water treatment 
  plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Neuse River
  Smithfield  15  14.6 Sat 09 PM    15.9  13.3   9.3   8.0   7.0

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Smithfield:      99.26

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

629 
WGUS82 KRAH 040848
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
448 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Haw River near Bynum affecting Chatham County
  Neuse River at Smithfield affecting Johnston County
  Rocky River near Norwood affecting Anson and Stanly Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-042048-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-151005T0600Z/
/BYNN7.1.ER.151003T1345Z.151004T0116Z.151004T1800Z.NO/
448 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River Near Bynum.
* At  4:31 AM Sunday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage 
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, The river widens up to 400 feet across. It 
  floods pasturelands on the right bank and woodlands on the left.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Haw River
 Bynum            11  12.4 Sun 05 AM   8.2   6.3   5.3   4.8      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Bynum:          283.31

&&

LAT...LON 3590 7918 3582 7911 3576 7905 3569 7916
          3585 7930                   

$$

NCC101-042048-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-151005T1400Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151004T0515Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0200Z.NO/
448 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  4:15 AM Sunday the stage was 15.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.7 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. 
  
&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  15.2 Sun 04 AM  13.2   9.4   8.0   7.0      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Smithfield:      99.26

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC007-167-042048-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-151005T0123Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.151003T1124Z.151003T2315Z.151004T1323Z.NO/
448 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rocky River Near Norwood.
* At  4:30 AM Sunday the stage was 22.8 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage
  late this morning.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Rocky River
 Norwood          20  22.8 Sun 04 AM   4.2   2.8   2.1   1.8      


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

  Norwood:        212.91


&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

698 
WGUS82 KRAH 041412
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1012 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-050212-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-151005T0925Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151004T0515Z.151004T1315Z.151004T2125Z.NO/
1012 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  9:15 AM Sunday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. Water nears the base of the holding tank at the 
  water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  15.4 Sun 09 AM  12.6   9.4   8.1   7.2   6.8

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Smithfield:      99.26

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

101 
WGUS82 KRAH 042241
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
641 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-042311-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-151005T0925Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151004T0515Z.151004T1445Z.151004T2052Z.NO/
641 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At 6:15 PM Sunday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage around 5 PM Sunday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 12.6 feet by tomorrow
  morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. Water nears the base of the holding tank at the 
  water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  14.9 Sun 06 PM  12.6   9.4   8.1   7.2   6.8

To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:

        Smithfield:      99.26

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1036 AM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A DEEP SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PWATS ~2.25"...2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...BETWEEN A
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE CLOSED LOW DIGGING
SLOWLY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS.

TODAY: LARGE SCALE FORCING VIA STEADY INFLUX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DIGGING UPSTREAM
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND STRENGTHENING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 70 TO 90KT JET-STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH...ATOP EASTERLY UPGLIDE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER INLAND
AREAS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINING PINNED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST INVOF THE STALLED FRONT.

MUCH COOLER TODAY OWING TO THE DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE.
MANY PLACES HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR MAX TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY...
WITH WITH TEMPS FALLING BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO EVAP COOLING. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT: AS CLOSED LOW GAINS SOUTHERN LATITUDE...IT WILL BEGIN TO
DRAW THE STALLED FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING PLUME WESTWARD WITH AXIS OF
HEAVY PRECIP SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS COULD ARISE AS
EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS...WITH
WIDEPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...2.0" OF RAIN IN A SHORT 60-90 MINUTE
PERIOD WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.  MUCH COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID
50S 50S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60/LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXTEND FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY TO SHIFT
WESTWARD FROM THE COAST INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NC. THIS INCLUDES
JUST ABOUT ALL OF OUR ZONES. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
BE PULLED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN... WITH THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TAP VERY MOIST AIR UP AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
AND COOL AIR DAMMING RESUME OVER THE PIEDMONT. AN ADDITION 2-3
INCHES OF QPF WITH LOCAL 4 INCH TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY... WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE PIEDMONT... WITH LESSER TOTALS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS
FORECAST VERIFIES... THEN FLASH FLOODING AND/OR FLOODING WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP
SOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND... BUT REMAIN
COOL OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 248 AM THURSDAY...

...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN...
KEEPING OUR FORECAST LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT...

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONTINUES HIGH FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...

THE AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL
SATURATE THE SOILS AND MOST OF THE REGION WILL BECOME PRIMED FOR
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF FROM ADDITIONAL RAINS SAT-SUN. THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN WHETHER WE HAVE MOSTLY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING... TO WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE DEPICT A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT FOR CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS MAINLY CAUSED BY THE CUTTING
OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH TRACKS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER... THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE EUROPEAN CAMP IN A MORE OUT TO SEA
TRACK... WHILE FEWER AND FEWER MODELS STILL HAVE THE STORM DOING A
LEFT HOOK TOWARD THE CAROLINAS OR VIRGINIA THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL
OBVIOUSLY USE THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOR OUR BASELINE FORECAST...
BUT AT THIS POINT THE HURRICANE TRACK AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO BE
VERY UNCERTAIN AND CHANGEABLE.

WHAT CONTINUES TO BE MORE LIKELY IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OWING TO
THE MID LEVEL CUTTING OFF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
SUPPLIED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL CONNECTIONS.
IF THE TROPICAL CYCLE ITSELF GETS PULLED WESTWARD PER SOME OF THE
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS... THIS WOULD SIMPLY COMPOUND AN ALREADY
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES BEGINNING SATURDAY ON A WIDESPREAD
BASIS ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THE MID AND UPPER LOW BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... THIS MAY PULL SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BACK WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
NC. SO AFTER A VERY WET BEGINNING TO THE DAY IN THE NE ZONES...
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A LULL OR BREAKS IN THE HEAVY RAIN THERE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
STILL A QUESTION MARK DEPENDENT ON THE INTERACTION OF THE MID/UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AND THE HURRICANE.

FOR NOW... WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DEPICTS
POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT AND EVEN FLOODING RAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PINPOINTING THE HIGHEST QPF IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...
THEREFORE A GENERAL BROADBRUSH APPROACH THIS FAR OUT WOULD YIELD QPF
ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCAL 5 TO 8+ INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE FLOODING HAZARD APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND IF THE ENTRAINMENT OF THE HURRICANE WEST INTO OUR REGION
OCCURS... OBVIOUSLY SOME HISTORIC FLOODING WOULD BE LIKELY... ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WIND. ALL SCENERIES ARE STILL ON THE TABLE... AND ALL
WE CAN DO AT THIS POINT IS STATE THE UNCERTAIN FORECAST... BUT BE
PREPARED FOR A WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AND WIND IMPACTS
(SUCH AS DOWNED TREES...LOSS OF POWER...ETC.).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING
AS A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT (ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH) ATOP A COOL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR (1000-1500 FT AGL) BY 12Z AND IFR
(500-1000 FT) BY ~15Z...PERSISTING AT IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH ELEVATED SHOWERS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFT/EVE. FURTHER
DETERIORATION TO LIFR IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS
ELEVATED SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION.

LOOKING AHEAD: SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ASSOC/W INTERACTION BETWEEN A STALLED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT COLD AIR DAMMING (LIFR/IFR) CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY RAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT/SUN...THOUGH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
IN SOME IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS. -VINCENT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 455 AM THURSDAY...

A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING OVER THE COMING
DAYS.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING
THE PAST 7 DAYS HAS RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS RAIN PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAINSTEM RIVERS AND
EASED DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT TONIGHT LASTING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE RAINFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO LOCALLY 8 INCHES. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PART OF CENTRAL NC AND IN
PARTICULAR THE YADKIN AND HAW RIVER BASINS. THIS IS NOT TO DOWNPLAY
THE POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE FOR THESE SAME STORM TOTALS. THIS RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR WITHOUT WITHOUT A DIRECT LANDFALL FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
IF JOAQUIN DOES MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CAROLINAS... RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.

THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
IN THE COMING DAYS. THE FLOODING THREAT AND POTENTIAL HAZARD TO LIFE
AND PROPERTY WILL ONLY INCREASE EACH DAY UNTIL THE LONG DURATION
RAIN EVENT ENDS. THE THREAT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT END UNTIL HURRICANE
JOAQUIN EVENTUALLY GETS PULLED AWAY FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR
EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPECIFICALLY... THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. IF THE
HURRICANE DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION... IT WOULD BE LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD SIMPLY ADD TO THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE FLOOD
THREAT. MUCH MORE ON THIS POSSIBILITY IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
HYDROLOGY...MLM/BADGETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
409 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-020815-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
409 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
637 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW NORWOOD            35.23N  80.13W
10/01/2015                   STANLY             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FLASH FLOODING CLOSED SEVERAL ROADS FOR A COUPLE OF
            HOURS OVERNIGHT IN AND AROUND SOUTHERN STANLY COUNTY.
            ONE INCLUDED HIGHWAY 52 IN NORWOOD. FLOODING HAD RECEDED
            AS OF 230 AM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500981

PWB