Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Watches in 2015
Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Raleigh, NC
NWS Raleigh, NC issued this flash flood watch at Sep 30, 2015, 3:03 PM EDT for 31 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 1, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 30, 2015, 3:03 PM EDT (19:03 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 1, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 5, 2015, 3:38 PM EDT
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS Raleigh, NC
- Flood severity
- None
All 31 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 120 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -136 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 980 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -18 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
157 WGUS62 KRAH 301903 FFARAH URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 303 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA. NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-010945- /O.NEW.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151004T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND- SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...DURHAM... LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG... SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD... CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER... LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH... SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 303 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING CUMBERLAND...DURHAM...EDGECOMBE... FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON... NASH...SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE ... AND WILSON. * FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING * WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ANYONE LIVING IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION... AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING BEGINS OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. IF WATER BEGINS TO ENTER YOUR HOME... IMMEDIATELY TURN OFF THE POWER... AND THEN SEEK HIGHER GROUND && $$
16 follow-up statements
644 WGUS62 KRAH 010729 FFARAH URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 329 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST... NCZ007-021>024-038>040-073>076-083-084-020000- /O.EXB.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE... MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN... SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM... HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM 329 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. * LOCATION...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. * TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. * STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR CREEKS OR STREAMS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. && $$ NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-020000- /O.EXT.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND- SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...DURHAM... LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG... SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD... CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER... LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH... SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 329 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. * LOCATION...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. * TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. * STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR CREEKS OR STREAMS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. $$ VINCENT
349 WGUS62 KRAH 010829 AAA FFARAH FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 429 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST... NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-020000- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON... SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE... MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN... SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON... GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET... EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY... FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 429 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * AREA...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. * TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. * STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WIND...SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES...POWER LINES...AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES IF JOAQUIN TRACKS CLOSE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$ VINCENT
137 WGUS62 KRAH 011918 FFARAH FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 318 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN WILL PRODUCED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY... NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-020930- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON... SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE... MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN... SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON... GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET... EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY... FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 318 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING ALAMANCE...ANSON...CHATHAM...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...DURHAM... EDGECOMBE...FORSYTH...FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...GUILFORD... HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...MONTGOMERY... MOORE...NASH...ORANGE...PERSON...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND... SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE ...AND WILSON. * FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. * TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. * WIND...SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$
855 WGUS62 KRAH 020242 FFARAH FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1042 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN WILL PRODUCED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY... NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-021045- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON... SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE... MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN... SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON... GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET... EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY... FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 1042 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING ALAMANCE...ANSON...CHATHAM...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...DURHAM... EDGECOMBE...FORSYTH...FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...GUILFORD... HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...MONTGOMERY... MOORE...NASH...ORANGE...PERSON...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND... SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE ...AND WILSON. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. * TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$
339 WGUS62 KRAH 020922 AAA FFARAH FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 522 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 ...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST... NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-030000- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON... SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE... MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN... SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON... GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET... EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY... FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 522 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. * TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...SHIFT WEST TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AND HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS TO THE TRIAD AND SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. * STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE TRIAD AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$ VINCENT
221 WGUS62 KRAH 021957 FFARAH FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 ...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES TO PULL ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS... NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-031000- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON... SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE... MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN... SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON... GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET... EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY... FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING ALAMANCE...ANSON...CHATHAM...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...DURHAM... EDGECOMBE...FORSYTH...FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...GUILFORD... HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...MONTGOMERY... MOORE...NASH...ORANGE...PERSON...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND... SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE ...AND WILSON. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. * PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE FIRST STREETS TO FLOOD WILL BE THOSE THAT DIP UNDER HIGHWAY OR RAILROAD OVERPASSES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$
545 WGUS62 KRAH 030250 AAA FFARAH FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1050 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 ...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES TO PULL ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS... NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-031200- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON... SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE... MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN... SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON... GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET... EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY... FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 1050 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING ALAMANCE...ANSON...CHATHAM...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...DURHAM... EDGECOMBE...FORSYTH...FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...GUILFORD... HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...MONTGOMERY... MOORE...NASH...ORANGE...PERSON...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND... SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE ...AND WILSON. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. * PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE FIRST STREETS TO FLOOD WILL BE THOSE THAT DIP UNDER HIGHWAY OR RAILROAD OVERPASSES. * FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN HAVE SET UP THIS EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$
167 WGUS62 KRAH 030741 AAA FFARAH FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 341 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-040000- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON... SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE... MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN... SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON... GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET... EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY... FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 341 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. * WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL END LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN MAY RE-DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY ULTIMATELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$ VINCENT
318 WGUS62 KRAH 031931 FFARAH URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 331 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING... NCZ007>011-021>028-040-041-043-032045- /O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-WILSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...WILSON 331 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. HOWEVER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON CURRENT SATURATED SOIL WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. $$ NCZ038-039-042-073>078-083>086-088-089-040915- /O.EXT.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT- WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO... ARCHDALE...TRINITY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON... ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES... PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN... ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON... ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD... ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 331 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING ANSON...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON... LEE...MONTGOMERY...MOORE...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND...SAMPSON... SCOTLAND...STANLY AND ...WAYNE. * THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY EVENING. * A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. * AS SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA... ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.... PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$ GIH
492 WGUS62 KRAH 040227 FFARAH FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1027 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING... NCZ038-039-042-073>078-083>086-088-089-041200- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT- WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO... ARCHDALE...TRINITY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON... ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES... PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN... ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON... ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD... ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 1027 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING ANSON...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON... LEE...MONTGOMERY...MOORE...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND...SAMPSON... SCOTLAND...STANLY AND ...WAYNE. * THROUGH MONDAY EVENING * A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. * AS SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA... ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.... PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$
061 WGUS62 KRAH 040812 FFARAH FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 412 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING... NCZ038-039-040915- /O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO... ARCHDALE...TRINITY 412 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STILL...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...REMAIN AWAY FROM ANY CREEKS OR STREAMS RUNNING HIGH AND FLOWING FAST. $$ NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-042100- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON... ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES... PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN... ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON... ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD... ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 412 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ANSON...CUMBERLAND...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE... MONTGOMERY...MOORE...RICHMOND...SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...AND WAYNE. * THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. * NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS TODAY WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL BEING MORE LIMITED. AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN INCREASES. * SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN... ESPECIALLY IF IT IS HEAVIER AT TIMES...CAN QUICKLY RUN OFF AND LEAD TO RENEWED FLOODING. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY THE CASE IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$ DJF
168 WGUS62 KRAH 041551 AAA FFARAH FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1151 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING... NCZ073>076-041700- /O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE... MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN... SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD 1151 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE THERE REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN INTO MONDAY... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING HAS DECREASED IN THIS AREA. $$ NCZ042-077-078-083>086-088-089-050000- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ JOHNSTON-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND- SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON... DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO... POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG... RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 1151 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... ANSON...CUMBERLAND...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON... RICHMOND... SAMPSON...SCOTLAND... AND WAYNE. * THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. * NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND LEAD TO FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$ GIH
352 WGUS62 KRAH 041951 FFARAH FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 351 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING... NCZ042-077-042100- /O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ JOHNSTON-HARNETT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON... DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON 351 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS DECREASED IN THIS AREA... AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ NCZ078-083>086-088-089-050900- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON... ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD... ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 351 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING ANSON...CUMBERLAND...HOKE...RICHMOND...SAMPSON...SCOTLAND... AND WAYNE. * THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY EVENING. * PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND LEAD TO FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$
852 WGUS62 KRAH 050139 FFARAH FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 939 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING... NCZ078-083-084-050245- /O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON... ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM 939 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE TREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DECREASED IN THIS AREA... AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ NCZ085-086-088-089-051200- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH... SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 939 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING CUMBERLAND...HOKE...SAMPSON AND ...SCOTLAND. * THROUGH MONDAY EVENING * PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND LEAD TO FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$
341 WGUS62 KRAH 050734 FFARAH FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 334 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... NCZ085-086-088-089-060000- /O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH... SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 334 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CUMBERLAND...HOKE...SAMPSON...AND SCOTLAND. * THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. * PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE MOST PERSISTENT..HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS MUCH AS ONE TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO CLINTON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY. * SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. $$ DJF
779 WGUS62 KRAH 051938 FFARAH FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 338 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... NCZ085-086-088-089-052045- /O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH... SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 338 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT OF RAINFALL HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Sep 30, 3:00 PM EDT, 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 3:00 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 300 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN TRACKS NORTHWARD IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY... OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...THAT WILL LATER EVOLVE INTO A POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT: WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERED DAYTIME WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT IN AN UPTICK IN POPS WITH HIGH TO LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SHEAR IS BETTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...OWING TO THE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AVAILABLE TO AIDE IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH. SO WHILE UPPER FORCING IS MODEST...COULD STILL SEE ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT WETNESS WILL MAKE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL NC MORE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREA. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AFTER 06Z...AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK INLAND ACROSS THE AREA ...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL CAA...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF LIKELY RAIN CHANCES...MAKING FOR A MESSY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY... A DEEP SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...BETWEEN A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE EVOLVING POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. STEADY INFLUX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 70 TO 90KT JET-STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...ATOP EASTERLY UPGLIDE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ALL DAY AND NIGHT...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND EXTENDING BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS COULD ARISE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN CENTRAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAURINBURG...TO RALEIGH-DURHAM...TO OXFORD. AREAS IN THE WATCH COULD SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST...WITH TEMPS FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... ...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONTINUES FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND... FRIDAY...COOL AIR WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE BY INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE DAMMING SCENARIO MATURES WITH AN INVERTED TROF IN THE COASTAL PLAIN = LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP SOUTHEAST TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS JOAQUIN HEADS UP THE COAST. AS SUCH...SHOWERS...AT TIMES HEAVY...ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL GO AHEAD AND BOOST POPS TO 100 WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 INCHES WEST TO 3 INCHES IN THE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. TRAINING OF HEAVY TROPICAL SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE THAT MUCH OVER A SPAN OF ONLY A FEW HOURS...HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS WILL BE LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOL AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS RANGING UP TO 30 MPH...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SOME TREES IN AREAS WHERE THE SANDY SOILS HAVE BEEN SATURATED/LOOSENED UP. FOR THE WEEKEND...A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN PRESENT QUITE A FORECAST CHALLENGE. WIDESPREAD RAIN...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY REGARDLESS OF WHETHER JOAQUIN STAYS OFFSHORE OR IS ABSORBED BY THE CUTOFF SYSTEM AND PULLS INLAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK KEEPS THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORCING WOULD BE ESPECIALLY FOCUSED SUNDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WOULD GREATLY ENHANCE RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORICAL POPS AND LOWER- CONFIDENCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ~2 INCHES WEST TO ~1 INCH EAST ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED AT WHICH THINGS TAPER OFF...WILL MAINTAIN A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POP MONDAY AND VERY GRADUAL CLEARNING OF THE SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS RULE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS AND CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8K FOOT LEVEL. A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALLOWING A STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND RESULT IN DEVELOPING AND LOWERING CEILINGS THAT SHOULD REACH IFR OR EVEN LIFR RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS...MIST AND FOG. LOOKING AHEAD...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXTREMELY UNUSUAL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN. CONDITIONS FEATURING LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO JOAQUIN FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOME ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS COULD BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN. -BLAES && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS HAS RANGED FROM MAXIMUMS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THIS RAIN PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES (BUT NO FLOODING) ON MAINSTEM RIVERS AND EASED DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHICH HAD BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW THE UPCOMING SCENARIO WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN SHAKES OUT...HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROF...ETC. THE MOST IMMEDIATE HYDRO CONCERN WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TROPICAL RAIN RATES. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE...THAT CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EARLIER IN THE PERIOD (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE AREAS EASTWARD WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING WEST ON SATURDAY. IN THE LARGER SCALE PICTURE...RAINFALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS RANGING UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE. WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS IN PLACE...RUNOFF FROM THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY (PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING MINOR FLOOD STAGE APPROACHES 70% FOR SEVERAL OF OUR FORECAST POINTS GIVEN A 6 INCH BASIN RAINFALL) CAUSE MAINSTEM RIVERS (ESPECIALLY THE TAR...NEUSE...HAW...AND CAPE FEAR RIVERS) TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOWER REACHES OF THE RIVERS REMAINING IN FLOOD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOOD WATCHES FOR RIVER FORECAST POINTS MAY BE ISSUED TOMORROW...AND IF SO...THEN THERE WOULD BE TWO FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE COUNTIES CONTAINING RIVER FLOOD FORECAST POINTS. BE AWARE OF THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BLAES HYDROLOGY...MLM
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 30, 4:41 AM EDT, 10 hours 22 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 441 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010845- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 441 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONALLY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VINCENT
The office that day
Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 6:11 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Scotland | 49 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2015Every flash flood watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.