Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Watches in 2015

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Raleigh, NC

September 30, 201531 counties in North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this flash flood watch at Sep 30, 2015, 3:03 PM EDT for 31 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 1, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 30, 2015, 3:03 PM EDT (19:03 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 1, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
Expired
Oct 5, 2015, 3:38 PM EDT
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS Raleigh, NC
Flood severity
None
All 31 counties

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-09-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 120 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-09-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -18 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
120 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-136 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
980 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

157 
WGUS62 KRAH 301903
FFARAH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
303 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...DOWNSTREAM
OF A DEVELOPING POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA.


NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-010945-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151004T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...DURHAM...
LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...
SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...
CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...
LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...
SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
303 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING CUMBERLAND...DURHAM...EDGECOMBE... 
  FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON... 
  NASH...SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE  ...
  AND WILSON. 

* FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE
  PAST 5 DAYS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL
  PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

ANYONE LIVING IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION... AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING 
BEGINS OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. IF WATER BEGINS TO ENTER YOUR HOME... 
IMMEDIATELY TURN OFF THE POWER... AND THEN SEEK HIGHER GROUND

&&

$$
16 follow-up statements
644 
WGUS62 KRAH 010729
FFARAH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...

NCZ007-021>024-038>040-073>076-083-084-020000-
/O.EXB.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...
HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM
329 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* LOCATION...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
  TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
  DEEP SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
  CAROLINA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
  AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL
  CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
  URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR CREEKS OR STREAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-020000-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...DURHAM...
LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...
SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...
CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...
LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...
SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
329 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* LOCATION...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
  TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
  DEEP SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
  CAROLINA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
  AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL
  CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
  URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR CREEKS OR STREAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

VINCENT
349 
WGUS62 KRAH 010829 AAA
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
429 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTERACTS WITH
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-020000-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
429 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* AREA...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
  TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
  DEEP SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
  CAROLINA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
  AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL
  CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

* STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WIND...SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH
  THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH
  AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES...POWER LINES...AND
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES IF JOAQUIN TRACKS CLOSE TO THE NORTH
  CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE 
ISSUED.

$$

VINCENT
137 
WGUS62 KRAH 011918
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTERACTING WITH
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN WILL PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-020930-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.151002T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
318 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  ALAMANCE...ANSON...CHATHAM...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...DURHAM... 
  EDGECOMBE...FORSYTH...FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...GUILFORD... 
  HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...MONTGOMERY... 
  MOORE...NASH...ORANGE...PERSON...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND... 
  SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE 
   ...AND WILSON. 

* FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.

* TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
  OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING. THE
  HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
  PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND...SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH
  WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

$$
855 
WGUS62 KRAH 020242
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1042 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTERACTING
WITH MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN WILL PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-021045-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
1042 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  ALAMANCE...ANSON...CHATHAM...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...DURHAM... 
  EDGECOMBE...FORSYTH...FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...GUILFORD... 
  HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...MONTGOMERY... 
  MOORE...NASH...ORANGE...PERSON...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND... 
  SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE 
   ...AND WILSON. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 
  PIEDMONT. 

* TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN 
  OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING. THE 
  HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN 
  PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING OCCURS OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

$$
339 
WGUS62 KRAH 020922 AAA
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
522 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH 
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-030000-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
522 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* TIMING...HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE
  INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...SHIFT WEST TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AND
  HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS TO THE
  TRIAD AND SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHERE IT
  WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

* STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE TRIAD AND OTHER PORTIONS OF
  THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$

VINCENT
221 
WGUS62 KRAH 021957
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
357 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH CONTINUES TO PULL ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS...

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-031000-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
357 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  ALAMANCE...ANSON...CHATHAM...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...DURHAM... 
  EDGECOMBE...FORSYTH...FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...GUILFORD... 
  HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...MONTGOMERY... 
  MOORE...NASH...ORANGE...PERSON...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND... 
  SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE 
   ...AND WILSON. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE
  WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

* PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO STREET FLOODING AND
  FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE FIRST STREETS TO FLOOD WILL
  BE THOSE THAT DIP UNDER HIGHWAY OR RAILROAD OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$
545 
WGUS62 KRAH 030250 AAA
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES TO PULL ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-031200-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
1050 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  ALAMANCE...ANSON...CHATHAM...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...DURHAM... 
  EDGECOMBE...FORSYTH...FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...GUILFORD... 
  HALIFAX...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...MONTGOMERY... 
  MOORE...NASH...ORANGE...PERSON...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND... 
  SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...VANCE...WAKE...WARREN...WAYNE 
   ...AND WILSON. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* STORM TOTAL RAIN...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED IN 
  THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. 

* PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO STREET FLOODING AND 
  FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE FIRST STREETS TO FLOOD 
  WILL BE THOSE THAT DIP UNDER HIGHWAY OR RAILROAD OVERPASSES.

* FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT
  WHERE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN HAVE SET UP THIS EVENING.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$
167 
WGUS62 KRAH 030741 AAA
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-040000-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
341 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL END LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
  SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
  WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN MAY RE-DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
  EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY ULTIMATELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
  MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$

VINCENT
318 
WGUS62 KRAH 031931
FFARAH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
331 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING...

NCZ007>011-021>028-040-041-043-032045-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...WILSON
331 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. HOWEVER... ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON CURRENT SATURATED SOIL WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF
AND MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. 

$$

NCZ038-039-042-073>078-083>086-088-089-040915-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...
ARCHDALE...TRINITY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...
ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...
PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...
ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...
ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...
ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
331 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  ANSON...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON... 
  LEE...MONTGOMERY...MOORE...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND...SAMPSON... 
  SCOTLAND...STANLY AND ...WAYNE. 

* THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY EVENING.

* A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
  STATES COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
  THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
  RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
  TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* AS SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA... ANY ADDITIONAL
  RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND MAY LEAD TO FLOODING....
  PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$

GIH
492 
WGUS62 KRAH 040227
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1027 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING...

NCZ038-039-042-073>078-083>086-088-089-041200-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...
ARCHDALE...TRINITY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...
ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...
PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...
ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...
ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...
ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
1027 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  ANSON...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON... 
  LEE...MONTGOMERY...MOORE...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND...SAMPSON... 
  SCOTLAND...STANLY AND ...WAYNE. 

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 
  SOUTHEAST STATES COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE 
  STREAMING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF 
  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
  AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY... WITH ISOLATED 
  HIGHER AMOUNTS. 

* AS SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA... ANY 
  ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND MAY LEAD TO 
  FLOODING.... PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$
061 
WGUS62 KRAH 040812
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
412 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING...

NCZ038-039-040915-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...
ARCHDALE...TRINITY
412 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT
RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STILL...DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...REMAIN AWAY FROM ANY CREEKS OR STREAMS RUNNING HIGH AND
FLOWING FAST.

$$

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-042100-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...
ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...
PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...
ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...
ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...
ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
412 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...ANSON...CUMBERLAND...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...
  MONTGOMERY...MOORE...RICHMOND...SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...STANLY...AND
  WAYNE.

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA TODAY THROUGH
  MONDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS TODAY WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO
  WEST...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL BEING MORE LIMITED. AS AN
  UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST
  LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
  HEAVIER RAIN INCREASES.

* SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN...
  ESPECIALLY IF IT IS HEAVIER AT TIMES...CAN QUICKLY RUN OFF AND
  LEAD TO RENEWED FLOODING. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY THE CASE IN
  LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$

DJF
168 
WGUS62 KRAH 041551 AAA
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1151 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING...

NCZ073>076-041700-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD
1151 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE THERE REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN INTO
MONDAY... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING HAS
DECREASED IN THIS AREA.

$$

NCZ042-077-078-083>086-088-089-050000-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JOHNSTON-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...
DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...
POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...
RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
1151 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES... ANSON...CUMBERLAND...HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...
  RICHMOND... SAMPSON...SCOTLAND... AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
  MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES
  ARE POSSIBLE.

* SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
  WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND LEAD TO FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN LOW
  LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$

GIH
352 
WGUS62 KRAH 041951
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
351 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING...

NCZ042-077-042100-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JOHNSTON-HARNETT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...
DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON
351 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS DECREASED IN THIS AREA... AND
THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NCZ078-083>086-088-089-050900-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...
ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...
ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
351 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  ANSON...CUMBERLAND...HOKE...RICHMOND...SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...
  AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY EVENING.

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
  MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES
  ARE POSSIBLE.

* SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL 
  RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND LEAD TO FLOODING... ESPECIALLY 
  IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$
852 
WGUS62 KRAH 050139
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
939 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING...

NCZ078-083-084-050245-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...
ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM
939 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE TREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DECREASED IN THIS AREA... AND
THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NCZ085-086-088-089-051200-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...
SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
939 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  CUMBERLAND...HOKE...SAMPSON AND ...SCOTLAND. 

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA THROUGH 
  MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE TO TWO 
  INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 

* SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL 
  RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND LEAD TO FLOODING... ESPECIALLY 
  IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$
341 
WGUS62 KRAH 050734
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
334 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER A SMALL PART OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

NCZ085-086-088-089-060000-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...
SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
334 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...CUMBERLAND...HOKE...SAMPSON...AND SCOTLAND.

* THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

* PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE MOST
  PERSISTENT..HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
  HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS MUCH AS
  ONE TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
  FROM LAURINBURG TO CLINTON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE
  HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY.

* SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
  WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS IS
  ESPECIALLY THE CASE IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$

DJF
779 
WGUS62 KRAH 051938
FFARAH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
338 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

NCZ085-086-088-089-052045-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-151006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...
SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
338 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT OF RAINFALL HEAVY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Sep 30, 3:00 PM EDT, 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 3:00 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE JOAQUIN TRACKS NORTHWARD IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...THAT WILL LATER EVOLVE INTO
A POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE STRENGTHENING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TEMPERED DAYTIME WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT IN AN UPTICK IN POPS WITH HIGH TO
LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHEAR IS BETTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...OWING TO THE AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM TROUGH...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AVAILABLE TO AIDE
IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH. SO WHILE UPPER FORCING IS MODEST...COULD STILL
SEE ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT WETNESS WILL MAKE
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL NC MORE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
IN URBAN AREA. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO
LOWER/MID 80S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AFTER 06Z...AXIS OF
DEEP MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK INLAND ACROSS THE AREA
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC. STRENGTHENING
EASTERLY OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL CAA...IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION
OF LIKELY RAIN CHANCES...MAKING FOR A MESSY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEP SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...BETWEEN A RIDGE BUILDING IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE EVOLVING POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

STEADY INFLUX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 70 TO 90KT JET-STREAK ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...ATOP EASTERLY
UPGLIDE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ALL DAY AND NIGHT...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP  REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND EXTENDING BACK INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT.

FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS COULD ARISE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
CENTRAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS
OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAURINBURG...TO RALEIGH-DURHAM...TO OXFORD.
AREAS IN THE WATCH COULD SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COOLER WITH COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTHEAST...WITH TEMPS FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONTINUES FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...

FRIDAY...COOL AIR WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE BY INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE DAMMING SCENARIO MATURES WITH AN
INVERTED TROF IN THE COASTAL PLAIN = LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DEEP SOUTHEAST TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS JOAQUIN HEADS
UP THE COAST. AS SUCH...SHOWERS...AT TIMES HEAVY...ARE EXPECTED IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL GO AHEAD AND
BOOST POPS TO 100 WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 INCHES WEST TO 3
INCHES IN THE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. TRAINING OF HEAVY TROPICAL
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND ITS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE THAT MUCH OVER A SPAN OF ONLY A FEW
HOURS...HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS WILL BE LUCKY TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOL AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS
RANGING UP TO 30 MPH...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SOME TREES IN
AREAS WHERE THE SANDY SOILS HAVE BEEN SATURATED/LOOSENED UP.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN PRESENT QUITE A
FORECAST CHALLENGE. WIDESPREAD RAIN...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY REGARDLESS OF WHETHER JOAQUIN STAYS
OFFSHORE OR IS ABSORBED BY THE CUTOFF SYSTEM AND PULLS INLAND. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK KEEPS THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE FORCING WOULD BE ESPECIALLY FOCUSED SUNDAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WOULD GREATLY ENHANCE
RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORICAL POPS AND LOWER-
CONFIDENCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ~2 INCHES WEST TO ~1 INCH
EAST ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED AT WHICH THINGS TAPER OFF...WILL
MAINTAIN A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POP MONDAY AND VERY GRADUAL
CLEARNING OF THE SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS RULE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS AND CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8K
FOOT LEVEL. A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALLOWING A STEADY
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD THE
FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING. A
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN DEVELOPING AND LOWERING CEILINGS THAT SHOULD
REACH IFR OR EVEN LIFR RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS...MIST
AND FOG.

LOOKING AHEAD...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN EXTREMELY UNUSUAL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN. CONDITIONS FEATURING LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED PRIOR
TO JOAQUIN FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOME ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS COULD BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
JOAQUIN. -BLAES

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING
THE PAST 5 DAYS HAS RANGED FROM MAXIMUMS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THIS RAIN PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES (BUT NO
FLOODING) ON MAINSTEM RIVERS AND EASED DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHICH HAD
BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW THE UPCOMING SCENARIO WITH
HURRICANE JOAQUIN SHAKES OUT...HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER
TROF...ETC. THE MOST IMMEDIATE HYDRO CONCERN WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TROPICAL RAIN RATES. GIVEN THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE...THAT CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EARLIER
IN THE PERIOD (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) FROM THE TRIANGLE
AND FAYETTEVILLE AREAS EASTWARD WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING WEST ON
SATURDAY. IN THE LARGER SCALE PICTURE...RAINFALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS RANGING UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE. WITH
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN PLACE...RUNOFF FROM THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WOULD LIKELY (PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING MINOR FLOOD STAGE APPROACHES
70% FOR SEVERAL OF OUR FORECAST POINTS GIVEN A 6 INCH BASIN
RAINFALL) CAUSE MAINSTEM RIVERS (ESPECIALLY THE
TAR...NEUSE...HAW...AND CAPE FEAR RIVERS) TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE
THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOWER REACHES OF THE RIVERS REMAINING IN FLOOD
INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOOD WATCHES FOR RIVER FORECAST POINTS MAY BE
ISSUED TOMORROW...AND IF SO...THEN THERE WOULD BE TWO FLOOD WATCH
PRODUCTS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE COUNTIES CONTAINING RIVER FLOOD
FORECAST POINTS. BE AWARE OF THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES
HYDROLOGY...MLM
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 30, 4:41 AM EDT, 10 hours 22 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
441 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
441 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ADDITIONALLY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
JOAQUIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VINCENT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 30, 6:11 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHCumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Scotland49 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2015Every flash flood watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.