Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

CURRENTLY...

AS PER WATER VAPOR IMGY...MONSOON PLUME IS OVER THE REGION. AT 2
PM...ISOLD TSRA ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE ISOLD
TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND UPPER SAN LUIS VALLEY. CONVECTION
ON THE PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH DOWN
THE PLAINS. TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE L/M90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S AND 80S MTNS/VALLEYS. CAPES
WERE QUITE HIGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG.

REST OF TODAY...

HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE TODAY IN THAT IT WAS FCSTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE EARLY OVER THE PLAINS AND IT DID. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AND EXTENSIVE AS HRRR INDICATES.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CG LTG...BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AS CAPE VALUES ARE HIGH
AND DWPTS ARE IN THE 60S.

CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY THE SPC MESO PAGE...IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MTNS/VALLEYS.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...

2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PER
GUIDANCE....DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TOMORROW...

500 MB HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER WEAK N-NW FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH 1.0 - 1.2" THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW SO
EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR E PLAINS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L/M90S PLAINS...80S
EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S/80S MTNS. \/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PNW INTO SRN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE
DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN PLACE...WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT LIMITING ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
STEERING WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
STALLS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN CO AND NRN NM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO TX AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...LOWERING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. A DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER...BUT OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

KCOS AND KPUB WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME TSRA/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES THEN
CLEARING. OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TRRN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...AL/HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

COZ095>098-132200-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
312 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS...SOUTH
CENTRAL KIOWA AND NORTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 312 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MCCLAVE...OR 14 MILES WEST OF LAMAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAMAR...WILEY...MCCLAVE...NEEGRONDA RESERVOIR...NEEOSHE RESERVOIR...
SWEETWATER RESERVOIR AND QUEENS RESERVOIR.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3794 10280 3816 10299 3841 10274 3824 10239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 316DEG 8KT 3814 10287

SR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

COZ094-099-132300-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
436 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 436 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIM...OR 38 MILES NORTHEAST OF DES MOINES...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3707 10350 3710 10348 3714 10304 3714 10300
      3701 10286 3700 10293 3701 10351
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 282DEG 8KT 3702 10322

SR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

COZ094-099-140000-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
515 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

AT 515 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES EAST OF KIM...OR 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...PRITCHETT AND CAMPO.

LAT...LON 3746 10328 3744 10257 3700 10248 3700 10330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 273DEG 13KT 3715 10305

SR