Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES AND POPS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

FORECAST DISTRICT NOTING RELATIVELY ACTIVE RADAR RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...WHERE FLASH
FLOOD WARNING EXPIRED AT 245 AM MDT.  LOCATIONS SUCH AS SCHRIEVER
AFB AND AREAS WEST OF FOUNTAIN RECORDED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF
RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...CWA EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

LATEST NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL-
TIME DATA AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ACTIVE
24 HOURS SHOULD BE NOTED OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
AS ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME INTERACTS WITH MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS) AND OCCASIONAL UPPER
ENERGY/SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

AT THIS TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT AS IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...I.E. WPC INDICATES THAT NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO HAS A MODERATE RISK OF RECEIVING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WHILE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
RECEIVING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

HAVE INTRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING IN THE RECENTLY
RELEASED GRIDS/ZONES...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER THE ROUGHLY EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REAL-TIME
DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...ETC. AND ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS...ADVISORIES
AND/OR WARNINGS AS NEEDED...PLEASE STAY TUNED.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE PROJECTED TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW MID-AUGUST CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...WHILE CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE WITH MONSOON MSTR AGAIN
ALLOWING FOR SCT PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BELOW TO AROUND AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. TUE NIGHT SOME ISOLD TO
SCT POPS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ON WED THE UPR RIDGE
CENTER MOVES FROM WRN TX TO ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL CO BORDER.
MSTR WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS OVR THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS...WHERE THE GFS IS
DRIER WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN THE NAM.

THU AND FRI THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE AREA BUT IT
LOOKS SLIGHTLY DRIER.  HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR AND NR THE MTNS...WITH MAYBE SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR
THE SERN PLAINS.  HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAY SHOULD BE AROUND TO A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

THIS WEEKEND...AND UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO ON
SUN.  SAT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WL SEE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN...BUT IN
THE WAKE OF THAT FRONT ON SUN...THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS COULD SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

ISOLATED TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AT MIDDAY...AND
EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION IN ALL TAFS BEGINNING
20Z-21Z...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AT KCOS AND KPUB. MVFR AND
BRIEF IFR LIKELY WITH MOST CONVECTION...AS MOIST ATMOSPHERE TODAY
WILL PRODUCE LOWER CLOUD BASES AND HEAVIER RAIN. STORMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH A FEW MESOSCALE MODELS
SUGGESTING TSRA PAST 06Z AT KCOS. WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW DAYTIME
CONVECTION PLAYS OUT BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO TERMINALS PAST
03Z...THOUGH WILL RUN WITH A VCSH AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 09Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-111800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1157 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREA BURN SCARS AND
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
LAST NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
NICKELS...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
STORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

10/28

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