Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
318 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

CURRENTLY...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS
INCREASED OVER THE FAR SRN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AS SURFACE HEATING
HAS DESTABILIZED THE LOWER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PALMER
DIVIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OVERALL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR ACROSS PUEBLO
AND EL PASO COUNTY AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH ONLY
500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...BUT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY WITH PASSING WAVE AND LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUED HEATING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR SE CO. DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE FAR SE PLAINS IS
EVIDENT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH PWATS OF
1.2-1.3 INCHES...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 35-40 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR. DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM SE LAS ANIMAS COUNTY THROUGH PROWERS COUNTY WILL AIDE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE IN DIAMETER...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. STORMS
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE REMAIN WEAKER AS THERE IS LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. OVERNIGHT...WEAK SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND OUTFLOW
FROM MCS IN WESTERN KS WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. A STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BEFORE SPREADING NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST N/NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WESTERN KS
TRACKS EASTWARD AND DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE...LIKELY
PUSHING THE STRATUS DECK BACK ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAR SE PLAINS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SE CO...WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE MONSOON PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD TOMORROW INTO KS...WITH A OVERALL DOWN TICK IN MTN
CONVECTION EXPECTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LUKINBEAL/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...BEGINNING OF WEEK LOOKS WET THEN DRYING OUT A SOMEWHAT...

MID/UPPER LVL MONSOON FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND WITH FAVORABLE LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WE SHOULD SEE QUITE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE REGION...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN BEING LOCALLY HEAVY.
FOR THIS REASON...I HAVE HIGH SCTD/AREAS OF LIKELY POPS IN THE THE
GRIDDED DATABASE...ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TUES
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MORE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY MID WEEK THE RIDGE IS FCST TO
BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHUNT THE MID LVL MSTR TO
THE WEST AND THE CHANCES OF STORMS SHOULD WANE A BIT....BUT STILL
EXPECT AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CONTDVD. TEMPS WILL WARM UP BACK TO AVG TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG MAX
TEMPS.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW FCST TO BE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR
STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
WEEK...COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. \/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE VCNTY
OF KCOS AND KALS UNTIL AROUND 05Z WITH KPUB SEEING VCTS UNTIL 03Z.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT KPUB DUE TO LOW CIGS. A STRATUS DECK WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS STARTING AROUND 06Z AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12Z UNTIL N/NW DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AT
KCOS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THE STRATUS DECK
WILL REACH THE TERMINAL...AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST NO WHILE
EARLIER RUNS SUGGESTED YES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE
TAF FOR KCOS UNTIL LATER GUIDANCE IS RECEIVED. TOMORROW ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE VCTS AT THE TAF SITES STARTING AROUND
21-22Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LUKINBEAL/HODANISH

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH/LUKINBEAL
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH/LUKINBEAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-091745-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1139 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND
BACA COUNTIES.  HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS...AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH DAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY STORM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...HAZARDOUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL NEARING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 55 MPH AT TIMES IN STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.

34/34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

COZ097>099-082130-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
249 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS...
SOUTHEASTERN BENT AND NORTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 248 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES WEST OF TWO BUTTES RESERVOIR...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SPRINGFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PROWERS...SOUTHEASTERN BENT AND NORTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3751 10292 3766 10305 3803 10251 3781 10231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 233DEG 32KT 3763 10291

TLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
359 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

COZ098-099-082245-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
359 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 358 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TWO BUTTES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TWO BUTTES AND TWO BUTTES RESERVOIR.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3745 10244 3770 10260 3795 10205 3762 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 237DEG 38KT 3757 10242

TLM