Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

CURRENTLY...SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S
TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING WY. THE DAY STARTED
OFF MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS AND MT CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO
INITIATE. A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING...AND FORTUITOUS TIMING OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE...HAS NOW KICKED SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON ACTUAL ONGOING WX...SO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN A LITTLE CHALLENGING. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...BANDS OF CONVECTION...LIKELY TIED TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TO THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE UNTIL
THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING...SO NO WORD OF ANY
FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR AND STORMS HAVE BEEN AVOIDING AREA BURN
SCARS...SO FAR. SPC HAS PAINTED MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL
AREA....SO THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH. THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT...AND
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE FROM WEST TO EAST AND TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO COLORADO...SHUNTING AVAILABLE MOISTURE
EITHER FAR NORTH...OR WELL SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE THE ISOLATED
SHOT AT MT CONVECTION STARTING MIDDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE START TO A WARM AND ESSENTIALLY DRY PERIOD INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE E
PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY SEE LESS STORMS OVERALL AS DRIER AIR
IS FORECAST TO IMPINGE OVER THIS REGION DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SO THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE...IE...THE PIKES PEAK REGION...WETS AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE AND ONLY MODEST WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE POPS OVER THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE WILL
BE IN THE ISOLD TO LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...WITH MAINLY ISOLD POPS
OVER THE PLAINS. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE L/M90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S OVER THE VALLEYS. \/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AT TERMINALS. COULD ALSO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I25
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND
60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KCOS SOUTH TO KTAD...AND EAST TO
KLHX....THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 04Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALL AREAS FOR WED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-221300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1101 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER AND
NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREA BURN SCARS
AND URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. MAIN
THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
50 MPH...BUT ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA. MAIN
STORM THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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