Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM OLD
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO
INDICATING SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH AN MCS ROLLING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ATTM. 00Z NCEP DATA HAD PWATS RANGING
FROM BETWEEN 110 TO 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATING PWATS BETWEEN 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE DESERT SW ATTM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL SIGNS POINT TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...
ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE FLOW. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND ROLLING OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH AMBLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...THOUGH WITH
MODERATE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...STORMS WILL BE MOVING ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER EAST...GENERALLY EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
EXPECTED CONVECTION...HIGHS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED WEATHER TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING A COOL FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...EITHER EARLY TO MID MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
DOLORES...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS A GOOD BET
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHTS. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND PLAINS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BE WEATHER AWARE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND SOME CAPE VALUES WILL
BE OVER 1000 J/KG BOTH AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. FOR THE MOST
PART...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW JULY AVERAGES...WITH 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...MAINLY 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 50S TO 60S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA DURING
WEDNESDAY...AS THE TRANSITION IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES PLACE.
THEN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW
MONSOON MOISTURE SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL MOUNTAIN AND ADJACENT TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO AROUND THE SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

KCOS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE
TIME FRAMES OF 19/22UTC-20/01UTC. GUSTY WINDS AND VIS REDUCED BY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.

KPUB WILL SEE A CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE DURING THE 20/00UTC-20/02UTC TIME FRAME.

KALS WILL HAVE A LESSER CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...HODANISH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-201715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1102 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS AND IN URBAN AREAS.

QUITE A BIT OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. BURN SCARS AND URBAN
AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR. MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

ON WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...WITH STRONGER
STORMS PRODUCING HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40
MPH. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A CONCERN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT TERRAIN. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

HODANISH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
233 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

COZ069-070-192130-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
233 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RIO GRANDE...SOUTH
CENTRAL SAGUACHE AND NORTHWESTERN ALAMOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
MDT...

AT 233 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LA GARITA...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMOSA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTER AND LA GARITA.

LAT...LON 3774 10626 3792 10624 3794 10587 3767 10589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 274DEG 10KT 3783 10617

LW