Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
551 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

BUMPED UP POPS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN
THE NDFD. \/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER TX THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOIST SSW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
COLORADO. LOWER LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOISTEN TODAY...AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...WHILE CAPE OVER
THE PLAINS ALONG THE NM AND KS BORDERS EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG. RELATIVE
MIN IN THE INSTABILITY FIELD LIES OVER EL PASO/PUEBLO/CROWLEY/OTERO
COUNTIES...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LEADING TO CAPES GENERALLY IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE.
CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE SO FAR TODAY HAS THUS BEEN HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...AND WITH WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY...APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...AS 0-6KM SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE 30 KTS FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS
STRONGEST UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH OVER SERN
AZ...STREAM OF WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST PLUME WILL
CONTINUE PUSH OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING PAST SUNSET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE KS
BORDER. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH MAIN CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING PUSHING INTO KS TOWARD
06Z...WITH HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY AREA OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST STORMS WILL
THEN FADE AWAY BY EARLY WED MORNING...THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MINS RATHER MILD.

ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DON'T CHANGE
VERY MUCH...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
MOST HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING WEAKLY
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
CONVECTION...THOUGH EXPECT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE
AS SURFACE LAYER DRIES. MAX TEMPS DRIFT DOWNWARD JUST SLIGHTLY WED
AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL...THOUGH READINGS MOST LOCATIONS WILL END UP
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF TUESDAY'S READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE
SPREADS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SOMETHING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TRACK IT EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND OTHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ELEVATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STRONG STORMS EXIST. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER
TEXAS AND A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO NEAR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MODEST STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP PUSH
THIS ACTIVITY OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS RETROGRADE THE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST EJECT TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE DRYING OUT TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF FLOODING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE ECMWF
IS MUCH DRIER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE MAIN ENERGY TRACK TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY POTENTIALLY BEING WET ACROSS THE AREA.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z-
04Z.  CONVECTION THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO KS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF I-25 BY
EARLY WED MORNING. WITH WEAK N-NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB...WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MCS
OUTFLOW LATE TONIGHT COULD PUSH CLOUDS BACK FARTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED. ON WED...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...WITH TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVELS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE PLAINS WED...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
WEAKER STORMS BUT STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-151745-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1137 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EAST OF A LINE
FROM LA JUNTA TO KIM LATER TODAY...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
PING PONG BALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. .

ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURN SCARS...URBAN AREAS...AND THOSE
WITH SATURATED OR LOOSE SOIL CONDITIONS MAY BE PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD A STRONGER STORM IMPACT THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
IN ADDITION...ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AS WELL AS
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY IF A STRONGER STORM MOVES ACROSS BURN SCARS OR
URBAN AREAS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

10/88

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