Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
307 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

AN UPR LEVEL LOW WAS OVR CENTRAL CA AND WRN NV THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD A
BIT ON FRIDAY.  A DISTURBANCE EJECTING OFF THIS UPR LOW...WL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. AS THIS
WAVE MOVES ACRS THE AREA...IT WL LIKELY ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES OVR THE
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS FIRST AND THEN HELP SPREAD PCPN ACRS THE SERN
PLAINS.  THAT DISTURBANCE EXITS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 09Z...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE...WHICH MAY BRING SOME PCPN TO THE SERN
CORNER AND EASTERN BORDER AREAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE...IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY NOON.  THE NAM SHOWS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL CO IN THE
AFTERNOON...HELPING KICK OFF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
PROBABLY OVR THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA.  IT LOOKS LIKE
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD GENERALLY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD GENERALLY BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
80S TO LOWER 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...AND IN THE 70S OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND UPR ARKANSAS VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

...MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND WEAKENS INTO THE WEEKEND AS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A BROAD UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO MORE EARLY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ANY STORMS ON
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED...PRODUCING MORE
WIND THAN RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LATEST GFS IS STILL INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WHERE AS THE NAM AND EC
KEEP THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ARE
NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS A TAD ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ATTM. TEMPS ALOFT WARM
UNDERNEATH THE RETROGRADING RIDGE (14C TO 18C AT H7) AND WITH LESS
EXPECTED CONVECTION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE MORE
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
WETTER AGAIN AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS SENDING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
TONIGHT. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF KPUB THIS EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THE
KPUB AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WL BE
WIDESPREAD. FRIDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF
KPUB SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW.

KCOS MAY SEE SOME TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME LOW STRATUS WL DEVELOP AGAIN AT KCOS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT
KCOS.

KALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH
TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES OF
THIS OCCURRING  LOOKS LOW.  SOME TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-101730-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1127 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAY HAVE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY IF HEAVY RAIN MOVES
INTO THESE LOCATIONS. THE BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRIMARY
STORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP
AGAIN AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

28/28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
745 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

COZ099-100230-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
745 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
MDT...

AT 744 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES SOUTH OF STONINGTON...OR 17 MILES WEST OF ELKHART...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMPO AND STONINGTON.

LAT...LON 3700 10281 3736 10289 3735 10205 3700 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 185DEG 12KT 3707 10221

KT

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