Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
318 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CURRENTLY...

ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WERE NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND S MTNS. OTHER
AREAS WERE DRY. PUEBLO AREA WARMED UP SURPRISINGLY INTO THE
U80S...WHILE ALL OTHER AREAS WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AT 2 PM.
A WEAK COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM W OF KCOS...TO JUST E OF KPUB AND
DOWN TO KSPD AS PER VIS SAT PIX IMGY.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR/S
MTN REGION...WITH A FEW TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE E SAN JUANS. ALL
OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY. FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS IT IS
TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION...AND THE INTERIOR MTNS ARE LIKELY TOO
DRY. GIVEN THERE IS LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...MOST PRECIP SHOULD WANE
AFTER SUNSET OVER THE REGION.

THERE IS STILL A BIT OF CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE...SO ONE
OR TWO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA REGION.

TOMORROW...

WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WEATHER IN THAT NEARLY ALL
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. HOWEVER...TOMORROW WILL
BE DIFFERENT IN THAT THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT FARTHER INTO THE
MTNS...AND ALL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPS TOMORROW ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS. \/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...VERY LITTLE CHANGE
NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TREND WHEN IT COMES TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM
FORECAST.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL DO
SO THROUGH TUESDAY. BEGINNING TUE NIGHT THE RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN
A BIT AND EDGE BACK TO THE WEST...AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY INTO FRI.
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THU AND FRI.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE SUN AND WED.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE...DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY EACH DAY AND
THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE.
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER THE MTS...AND ISOLATED
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MON AND TUE...AND THE PLAINS ON THOSE DAYS MAY
REMAIN PCPN-FREE. A NORTHERLY SURGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA EARLY WED...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT BUT LITTLE BY WAY OF
COOLER AIR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED PCPN MAY STRAY
FROM THE DIURNAL PATTERN AND PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BOTH WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. CANT RULE
OUT A QUICK MOVING TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AT ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-271715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1108 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL
BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH... HOWEVER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR
TWO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50... WITH HAIL THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY...FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. THE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50
MPH AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

34/34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

COZ076-077-081-083-085-262200-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT CO-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
308 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TELLER...
SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
MDT...

AT 308 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CRIPPLE CREEK...OR 24 MILES WEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRIPPLE CREEK...VICTOR AND CANON CITY.

LAT...LON 3886 10520 3854 10491 3841 10522 3870 10536
      3870 10533 3881 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 332DEG 18KT 3876 10526

HODANISH

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