Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING WILL AFFECT OUR WX...

CURRENTLY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PREDOMINANTLY ALONG THE MTNS...WITH
THE ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST. ONE OR TWO STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED
ALONG THE RATON MESA. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS
APPROACHING NE COLO. CAPES WERE IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE ON THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES N OF US50. MARGINAL DEEP SHEAR WAS
NOTED OVER THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING WNW...STORMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS MOVING GENERALLY DUE SOUTH.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG THE MTNS
AND DOWN ALONG THE RATON MESA. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...MARGINAL SVR AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER ABOUT 02Z...AREA WILL START TO BE INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AREA THE GREATER FAR NE COLORADO REGION. THIS WILL
BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE FAR SE
COLO PLAINS. HOWEVER...HRRR DOES INDICATE ONE OR TWO ISOLD CELLS
MOVING S-SE CLOSER TO THE MTNS LATER THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION IS WITH THE KS
MCS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z.

TOMORROW...

LIKELY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PC SKIES OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. IT APPEARS THE BEST
FORCING FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE THE S MTN REGION (PIKES
PEAK...WETS...SANGRES) AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST INSTABILITY.
SPC HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS TOMORROW...WITH
ONLY GENERAL THUNDER OVER THE FCST AREA. DEPENDING HOW MUCH RICH
LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE S MTN REGION...AND POSSIBLY THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS. IF CAP CAN BREAK...THEN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR
OVER THE REGION.

TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 4-8F COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TREND WHEN IT COMES TO THE
ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FORECAST AREA LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE RIDGE UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH MAX
TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE
TUE AND WED.

CONVECTION MAY LINGER A BIT LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRI
NIGHT...OTHERWISE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY EACH DAY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE
OVER THE MTS...AND ISOLATED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIEST
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE MON AND TUE...AND THE PLAINS ON
THOSE DAYS MAY REMAIN PCPN-FREE. THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT A COLD
FRONT FORECAST FOR WED WILL BE A BIT SLOWER...ARRIVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WED AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL INCREASE CONVECTION CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND LOW CIGS AT KCOS AND KPUB
TONIGHT. ISOLD TSRA WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TOT THE STORMS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

AT KPUB AND KCOS...LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
LAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A MOIST AIRMASS IN W KS PUSHES BACK TO
THE MTNS. LOWE CIGS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

COZ074-088-094-252245-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
404 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 404 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF TRINCHERA...OR 23 MILES EAST OF TRINIDAD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRANSON AND TRINCHERA.

LAT...LON 3709 10447 3744 10370 3700 10331 3699 10433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 319DEG 15KT 3721 10408

HODANISH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
439 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

COZ081-084-085-252330-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
439 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

AT 439 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AIR FORCE ACADEMY...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER AND BECOME SEVERE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLORADO SPRINGS...MONUMENT...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...FALCON...PETERSON
AFB...BLACK FOREST...GLENEAGLE AND CIMARRON HILLS.

LAT...LON 3890 10494 3906 10484 3896 10446 3874 10464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 296DEG 30KT 3895 10481

HODANISH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
457 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             6 NNW PETERSON AFB      38.91N 104.74W
06/25/2015  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KLT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

COZ088-094-260015-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
539 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 539 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MODEL...OR 19 MILES EAST OF TRINIDAD...MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRANSON AND TRINCHERA.

LAT...LON 3731 10431 3735 10405 3700 10384 3700 10422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 342DEG 17KT 3721 10416

SR