Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
218 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THRU MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS TODAY AND
IS SITTING OVR THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...AND
WARMING HAS BEEN SLOWED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH JUST SOME ISOLD STORMS OVR THE SRN MTNS.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVR A
GOOD SHARE OF THE SERN PLAINS...NOT INCLUDING LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOUT 40 KTS NR THE KS BORDER. WITH THE
BOUNDARY SITTING OVR THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE...IT WL SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS AREA WL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THUS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BACA COUNTY. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS
OVR THE SERN CORNER INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN MOVING SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE HRRR
ALSO SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE ERN MTNS WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD.
VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IS EXPECTED OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

ON FRI A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER.  CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OVR AND NR THE MTNS AND MAYBE ACRS THE SRN
BORDER AREA IN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.  H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
FRI AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 17C-20C.  AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE 80S OVR
THE HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015

...HOT AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE A STABLE SUMMER PATTERN IS HERE TO STAY. A STRONG H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER SRN CA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EWD OVER
NRN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. H7 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND 16 DEG C
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO 20 DEGREES OR MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SW. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCAL BUILD-UPS OVR THE MTS...AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA...BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. SO...HAVE DROPPED POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS...MAINTAINING ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS
ON A DIURNAL BASIS OVER THE MTS. MOS TEMPS REMAIN AT 100 DEGREES OR
HIGHER FOR THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS
OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS JUST BELOW 100 SINCE SURFACE DEWS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS MAY CUT THE HIGH END OFF JUST A BIT. BUT IT
WILL BE HOT. HOT AND DRY.

BY WED AND BEYOND...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE
FORMER REBUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW WHILE THE LATTER
BREAKS THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE. BOTH MODELS BRING IN A BIT MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
ENSEMBLE BASED TEMPS AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED...AS WE
SLOWLY HEAD TOWARD MORE OF A MID-SUMMER REGIME WITH THE MONSOON RIGHT
AROUND THE CORNER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-191715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1102 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IMPACTING KIOWA AND
PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL
BE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

THE REST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
MUCH MORE ISOLATED...AND RESTRICTED ESSENTIALLY TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY STORM THREATS DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

28/28

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