Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
243 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

...HOT TOMORROW WITH STORMS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AREAS...

CURRENTLY...UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE ERN PLAINS AND 60S-70S FOR THE
MT AREAS. ISOLATED STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MTS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EWD OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVE...
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS MID-UPPER CLOUD
DECKS CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE W AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SW. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE ERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A FEW STORMS GOING...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. SVR PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY LOW...EXCEPT E OF A DIFFUSE DRY LINE
NR THE KS BORDER. STORMS THAT FORM NR THIS BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY
COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SVR SIDE...OTHERWISE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
STORMS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS
LIKELY TO BE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW. WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE LOWER 90S
AT KPUB. IF WE DO NOT HIT 90 HERE FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE
90 DEGREE PLUS TEMP TOMORROW WILL BE THE LATEST WE HAVE HIT 90 DEGREES
OR HIGHER SINCE 1983 (JUN 18). BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HOT WEATHER WILL
STICK WITH US FOR A WHILE AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD FROM THE WEST. STORMS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE HIGH BASED...AND
THIS WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS OVER THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY ISOLD AND NOT TOO STRONG...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS NOW SHIFTS TO CONTINUED SNOW MELT FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RISES ON THE CREEKS/RIVERS. WELCOME TO SUMMER!
ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

THU NIGHT...MOST OF THE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT
BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVR PORTIONS OF THE
FAR SERN PLAINS UNTIL LATE NIGHT. AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA
ON FRI WITH MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST A
FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR AND NR THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD THRU EASTERN CO...BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE WEATHER OTHER THAN A SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION. AN UPR
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVR THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TSTMS...MAINLY OVR THE MTNS EACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE OVR THE
AREA...H7 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT
17-22C...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 90S
OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND 80S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THE UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR TUE AND WED...AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS MSTR WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPR HIGH INTO CO...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN.  THE GFS IS DRIER
FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AROUND THE TAF SITES.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME.
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING OVER THE SE CO
PLAINS AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE A BIT
LESS STRONG AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD ON THU. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXCEPT IN THE VC OF TS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-181800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1157 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. 1 OR 2 STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

CAUTION SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY.
STREAMFLOWS REMAIN HIGH AND FAST FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT.  CURRENTS
ARE STRONG AND RIVERBANKS UNSTABLE.  KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOURSELF AND THE WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A PATTERN SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MUCH MORE SPARSE...AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRIMARY STORM THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

44/44

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
228 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

COZ074-087-088-172115-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
228 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

AT 227 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF SPANISH PEAKS...OR 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TRINIDAD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST
PEAK BURN SCAR AND WILL BRING SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AGUILAR AND GULNARE AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR.

LAT...LON 3747 10496 3757 10477 3740 10456 3723 10469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 324DEG 15KT 3746 10482

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
230 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

COZ067>069-172100-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT CO-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT CO-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
230 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RIO GRANDE COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 230 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH FORK...OR 34 MILES WEST OF ALAMOSA...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN RIO
GRANDE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3751 10660 3764 10654 3761 10633 3741 10635
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 284DEG 6KT 3758 10649

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
342 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

COZ074-088-172230-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
342 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 342 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SEGUNDO...OR 17 MILES WEST OF TRINIDAD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COKEDALE...SEGUNDO AND WESTON.

LAT...LON 3713 10494 3726 10482 3727 10480 3709 10451
      3699 10460 3699 10475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 297DEG 12KT 3718 10482

28