Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
553 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR REGION...SOUTH OF PUEBLO...FOR THIS EVENING...PER RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT
END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CURRENTLY...UPPER WAVE...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND PV
CHARTS...LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. CAPES ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
RUNNING IN THE 500- 1000 J/KG RANGE...WHILE MAX 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS LIES ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. LATEST SEVERE WATCH FROM
SPC DOESN'T INCLUDE ANY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AS BEST SHEAR/CAPE STAY FAIRLY FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING. STILL PROBABLY ENOUGH CAPE FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL REPORT OR TWO WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH FAIRLY
VOLUMINOUS SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...CELLS ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER HAVE ALREADY PUSHED A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS OF
21Z...AND WOULD EXPECT EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES...ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT
IS AIDED BY ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW. IN FACT PRECIP COULD LINGER PAST
SUNSET IN THESE AREAS BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING IN NM BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING MOST MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR
VALLEYS...CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER AND MORE ISOLATED...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

SATURDAY...ANY LINGERING -SHRA ALONG THE NM BORDER EARLY SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA QUICKLY AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NM/TX. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LATEST 4KM NAM SHOWS VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS COLORADO SAT AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY.
VARIOUS OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS...ARE A LITTLE MORE
PLENTIFUL WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION...EVEN TAKING A COUPLE TSRA INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SUSPECT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL ALIGN MORE
WITH THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS....SO KEPT POPS IN THE LOW SCATTERED
RANGE OVER MOST MOUNTAINS...JUST ISOLATED FOR THE I-25 AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY ONE MORE DAY WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE 70S FOUND
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS AND CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...WARM AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY TAME COMPARED TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN
WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF MAY.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...AND SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVE. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD GET INTO THE 80S...AND MAY EVEN
BUST THE STRING OF SUB-84 DEGREE DAYS AT KPUB.

MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH CO OVER THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD STAY AT SUB-SEVERE LEVELS.
TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER
THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...SW FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
WILL DRY US OUT AND KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE. COULD SEE SOME AREAS
APPROACH 90 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
CLOSE TO 90 AT KLHX AND KLAA. HOWEVER...WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN TOO WARM DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE
THAT THEY PLAINS HAVE SEEN THIS MONTH. STORMS WILL REMAIN DIURNAL
AND GENERALLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE DRY SW
FLOW...EVEN THE MTS MAY SEE NO STORMS ON TUESDAY.

BY THU AND BEYOND...GLOBAL MODELS START TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAS THE
JET MOVING INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS IS FARTHER N
WITH THE JET. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF
SEVERE WX TO THE PLAINS AND HIGHER POPS IN GENERAL. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL STICK TO THE ENSEMBLE-BASED FORECAST
GRIDS...WHICH MAINTAIN SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER WITH LOW POPS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH TSRA VICINITY OF KCOS UNTIL 00Z...AND NEAR KPUB
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR TO MVFR...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR VIS UNDER STRONGER STORMS. -SHRA/-TSRA WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-25 08Z-10Z... WITH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA.

ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...INCLUDING KALS...TSRA
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE INTO THIS EVENING...ENDING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. VFR CIGS WITH HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS BY LATE MORNING WITH ONLY
SOME VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
520 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

COZ079-086>088-300000-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT CO-
520 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS...
NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO AND SOUTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
MDT...

AT 516 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF GREENHORN MOUNTAIN...OR 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PUEBLO...WITH ANOTHER STORM OVER OPEN COUNTRY OF NORTHEASTERN
HUERFANO COUNTY...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO CITY. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN...NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...OPEN COUNTRY OF SOUTHERN PUBELO...NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3786 10496 3794 10483 3786 10417 3749 10450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 297DEG 23KT 3788 10482

MW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
531 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

COZ084-085-300015-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
531 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

AT 530 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ELLICOTT...OR 23 MILES EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN...DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YODER...ELLICOTT AND OPEN COUNTRY OF EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3887 10450 3900 10440 3891 10406 3868 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 299DEG 10KT 3891 10439

MW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
603 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

COZ081-084-085-300045-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
603 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

AT 601 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AIR FORCE ACADEMY...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN AND DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...COLORADO SPRINGS...AIR FORCE
ACADEMY...FALCON...BLACK FOREST...GLENEAGLE AND CIMARRON HILLS.

LAT...LON 3892 10492 3907 10486 3903 10449 3880 10459
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 284DEG 14KT 3897 10480

MW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>