Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
902 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

NOW THAT THE TORNADO THREAT HAS EXITED...TIME TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL PUT OUT FOR THE CONTDVD...SAWATCH
AND MOSQUITO RANGE...TO MATCH EXISTING WATCHES PUT OUT BY
WFOS GJT AND BOU. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL IN THE
GRIDS...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY
IT'S CLOSE TO A LATE SEASON EVENT AND POTENTIAL WARNING SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS PER CURRENT WSR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES
GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL BUILD OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVE E THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOWERING
CIGS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIP REDEVELOPING OVER NRN I-25
AND THE SRN FRONT RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

CURRENTLY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT
AND SURFACE CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG HAVE COMBINED TO GENERATE VERY
EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCING TSRA ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WITH 6-8 INCH
DEEP ACCUMULATIONS SLOWING TRAFFIC AND CAUSING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS
OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF COLORADO SPRINGS. TOUGH TO FIND MUCH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...THOUGH THERE IS A HINT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP. ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS...CAPES RUNNING 1000-1500 J/KG....WITH
BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE STRATUS CLEARED
FASTEST EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SVR TSRA WATCH ISSUED FOR PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25
WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
WITH A LEAST A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.

TONIGHT...TSRA MIGRATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LATEST HRRR
KEEPING STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
LINE FORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER LATER IN THE EVENING. HRRR ALSO HINTS
AT A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN PUEBLO/EL
PASO COUNTIES 05Z-06Z AS OUTFLOW ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW PUSHES BACK
WESTWARD. OVERALL...WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES EL PASO/TELLER COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...STILL A FEW LINGERING -SHRA DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIE
ALONG THE NM BORDER AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE ARK RIVER BY EVENING. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EASTERLY
BL FLOW COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DEEP INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPES RANGE FROM 1-2K
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHES 50 KTS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS SCT AFTERNOON
TSRA WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED WITH
CLOUDS/MOISTURE/PRECIP PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKING TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM AND PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN
SATURATED AREAS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LA JUNTA TO KIM LINE. STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND SMALL HAIL FRIDAY
EVENING. IF A STRONGER STORM CAN IMPACT TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL CONCERNS AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER...HEAVY RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO THE RAMPART RANGE AND SNOW
LEVELS. ALL OF THESE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
STORM PATH. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WOULD LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN PARTICULAR. AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST OR WEST THE STORMS
DEVELOP. HAVE A FEELING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
TO ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. ELSEWHERE...FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO THE RAMPART RANGE. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL LATELY AND ARE SATURATED...AND FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM STORM TRACK.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 10 KFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND FLOW AND SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING
A TROWAL FEATURE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO KEEPING DECENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GFS HAS THIS FEATURE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE SOUTH AND HAVE THIS FEATURE
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 7 KFT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION GRASSY SURFACE.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE COLD
WRAP AROUND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MOVING OUT IN
THE PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 00Z TAFS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CO PLAINS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...
LASTING THROUGH 15-18Z FRI MORNING. CIGS WILL BE LOWEST...IFR
TO LIFR...AT KCOS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING. CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS FRI AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SVR...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058-060-061.

&&

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
733 PM MDT THU MAY 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             8 NE COLORADO CITY      38.03N 104.75W
05/07/2015  M0.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0459 PM     TORNADO          18 SE WALSH             37.20N 102.05W
05/07/2015                   BACA               CO   NWS OFFICE

            RECEIVED FROM NWS DDC

0351 PM     FLOOD            10 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS 38.96N 104.75W
05/07/2015                   EL PASO            CO   COCORAHS

            COTTONWOOD CREEK

0335 PM     HAIL             3 NNE FALCON            38.96N 104.60W
05/07/2015  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0320 PM     HAIL             7 W KIM                 37.25N 103.48W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 PM     HAIL             3 E BLACK FOREST        39.01N 104.64W
05/07/2015  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0310 PM     HAIL             5 W KIM                 37.25N 103.44W
05/07/2015  M2.00 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   STORM CHASER

0225 PM     HAIL             5 SSW BLACK FOREST      38.95N 104.73W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0155 PM     HAIL             5 N CALHAN              39.11N 104.30W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0155 PM     HAIL             4 SSE AIR FORCE ACADEMY 38.93N 104.83W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0145 PM     HAIL             4 S AIR FORCE ACADEMY   38.93N 104.85W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0133 PM     HAIL             5 S AIR FORCE ACADEMY   38.91N 104.86W
05/07/2015  M1.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM     RAIN             4 W ELLICOTT            38.84N 104.46W
05/07/2015                   EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.19 PRECIPITATION EVENING 5/6/15 TO 0700 AM 5/7/15.

0655 PM     HAIL             5 SW WILEY              38.10N 102.78W
05/06/2015  M0.88 INCH       BENT               CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BENT CTY RD 34 AND ARKANSAS RIVER.

0545 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NE FORT LYON          38.12N 103.12W
05/06/2015                   BENT               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM     RAIN             4 ESE CROWLEY           38.17N 103.80W
05/06/2015                   CROWLEY            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.17 PRECIPITATION. PEASIZE HAIL COVERING FIELDS ABOUT
            3 MILES SOUTH.

0445 PM     RAIN             1 WSW ROCKY FORD        38.04N 103.74W
05/06/2015                   OTERO              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.48 RAINFALL. PEASIZE HAIL...3/8 INCH SIZE FROM SAME
            STORM.

0410 PM     HAIL             4 SW PUEBLO             38.23N 104.67W
05/06/2015  M0.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   PUBLIC

&&

RMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
746 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

COZ087-088-080230-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
746 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

AT 745 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WALSENBURG...OR 26 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TRINIDAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3754 10484 3771 10460 3751 10438 3745 10474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 242DEG 9KT 3752 10470

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
840 PM MDT THU MAY 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     16 SE WALSENBURG        37.46N 104.57W
05/07/2015                   LAS ANIMAS         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 FUNNELS SPOTTED

&&

LW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
842 PM MDT THU MAY 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     16 SE WALSENBURG        37.46N 104.57W
05/07/2015                   LAS ANIMAS         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 FUNNELS SPOTTED

0535 PM     HAIL             8 NE COLORADO CITY      38.03N 104.75W
05/07/2015  M0.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0459 PM     TORNADO          18 SE WALSH             37.20N 102.05W
05/07/2015                   BACA               CO   NWS OFFICE

            RECEIVED FROM NWS DDC

0351 PM     FLOOD            10 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS 38.96N 104.75W
05/07/2015                   EL PASO            CO   COCORAHS

            COTTONWOOD CREEK

0335 PM     HAIL             3 NNE FALCON            38.96N 104.60W
05/07/2015  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0320 PM     HAIL             7 W KIM                 37.25N 103.48W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 PM     HAIL             3 E BLACK FOREST        39.01N 104.64W
05/07/2015  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0310 PM     HAIL             5 W KIM                 37.25N 103.44W
05/07/2015  M2.00 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   STORM CHASER

0225 PM     HAIL             5 SSW BLACK FOREST      38.95N 104.73W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0155 PM     HAIL             5 N CALHAN              39.11N 104.30W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0155 PM     HAIL             4 SSE AIR FORCE ACADEMY 38.93N 104.83W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0145 PM     HAIL             4 S AIR FORCE ACADEMY   38.93N 104.85W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0133 PM     HAIL             5 S AIR FORCE ACADEMY   38.91N 104.86W
05/07/2015  M1.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
910 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

COZ088-094-080415-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
910 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM MDT...

AT 910 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MODEL...OR 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MODEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3724 10421 3740 10429 3755 10399 3730 10386
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 252DEG 17KT 3735 10416

LW

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