Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Pueblo, CO

822 
WWUS55 KPUB 132234
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
434 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

COC009-132300-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-150913T2300Z/
BACA CO-
434 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BACA COUNTY...

AT 432 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS CENTERED 5 MILES EAST OF  
WALSH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL BACA 
COUNTY...EAST OF WALSH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 10229 3749 10225 3749 10204 3727 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 310DEG 7KT 3742 10217 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

28

197 
WWUS55 KPUB 132247
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

COC009-132300-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-150913T2300Z/
BACA CO-
447 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BACA COUNTY...

AT 446 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS CENTERED 4 MILES NORTH OF  
STONINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALSH AND STONINGTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 10229 3749 10225 3749 10204 3727 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 284DEG 12KT 3738 10216 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

28

618 
WWUS55 KPUB 132253
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

COC009-132300-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-150913T2300Z/
BACA CO-
453 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BACA COUNTY...

AT 453 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STONINGTON...
OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 10228 3745 10225 3745 10204 3727 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 339DEG 6KT 3736 10217 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...FIRE DANGER ON THE RISE...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER HIGH PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SW...AS EASTERN PACIFIC
ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TIER. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING AMPLE MOISTURE AND A MINOR
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH PERSISTING JUST EAST OF LHX
OWNING TO BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO MIX OUT
THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DEW PTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WEST OF THE
TROUGH AND IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE TROUGH AT THIS
TIME.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE
EAST OF TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S BEING BREACHED
AT THIS TIME...STILL MIGHT SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA
COUNTIES WITH SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPES APPROACHING 2000
J/KG AND SHEARS AROUND 30KTS. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL END
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WITH PWATS
PROGGED BETWEEN 3/4 TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS EMBEDDED
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH
VALLEYS. THE INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTDVD. HOWEVER...STORMS LOOK TO BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP TO
PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

FURTHER EAST...LEE TROUGHING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM AND BREEZY DAY WITH EXPECTED GOOD MIXING. FUELS ACROSS THE AREA
HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES
ARE INDICATING FUELS ARE NOW CRITICAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR. WITH THAT SAID...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LONG ENOUGH (3 HOURS OR MORE) OR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK...

PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TOWARDS TROFFING ON THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. LEE TROF ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE...RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AT TIMES FOR THE SE PLAINS. TUESDAY
LOOKS PARTICULARLY WINDY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND SUSPECT DEW POINTS WILL BE DRIER THAN MODELS
PORTRAY...EVEN WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING THROUGH THE FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME MEAGER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
THESE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND ONLY MINOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE KS BORDER...DRY LINE IN
THIS AREA MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH AXIS OF HIGHER CAPES IN KS OFF THE GFS...VS CLIPPING
INTO FAR SE CO ON THE NAM12. WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS OUT
THAT WAY FOR NOW BUT DEEP LAYER SHEARS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING ALOFT...BUT WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY PASSING TROF TO THE NORTH WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS LEADING TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES FOR BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY.  OTHERWISE...FRONT LOOKS
PRETTY DRY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRINGS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE CONSIDERING
WE ARE STILL UNDER FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR NOW. ANOTHER UPPER TROF SWEEPS THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT
OR SUNDAY SENDING ANOTHER PRIMARILY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND 15-20KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

FUEL RECEPTIVITY WILL BE THE CHANGING FACTOR THROUGH MID WEEK AS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES LIKELY LEAD TO FURTHER CURING OF FUELS...ESPECIALLY THE FINER
FUELS.  SO FAR...LATEST UPDATE FROM LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
INDICATE THAT FUELS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY ARE NOW IN THE CRITICAL
CATEGORY.  SUSPECT OTHER AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE ALSO
TRANSITIONED TO CRITICAL.  FARTHER EAST...GRASSLANDS OF BACA AND LAS
ANIMAS/OTERO COUNTIES WERE UPDATED YESTERDAY AND STILL INDICATE NOT
CRITICAL...AS ARE THE SE MTS...AND CHAFFEE LAKE COUNTIES.  FOR NOW
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE LIMITED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY
AND WILL SEE HOW FUEL CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVER THE COMING 24-48 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE DAYS WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MEET
CRITICAL PARAMETERS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ226>231.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW
FIRE WEATHER...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-141745-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1140 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE PRIMARY STORM
THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER
THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING...WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF DRY AIR
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COMBINE
WITH CRITICAL FUEL CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON MONDAY...AREAS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WILL SEE THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING PLANS SHOULD DONE WITH CARE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COLORADO
AND KANSAS BORDER.

23/23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

COZ099-132230-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
339 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

AT 339 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF PRITCHETT...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...VILAS AND TWO BUTTES RESERVOIR.

LAT...LON 3742 10292 3762 10290 3763 10242 3732 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 272DEG 17KT 3753 10279

MW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

COZ099-132230-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
349 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

AT 349 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WALSH...OR 14 MILES WEST OF THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALSH AND STONINGTON.

LAT...LON 3733 10238 3751 10237 3756 10204 3722 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 273DEG 18KT 3742 10229

MW