Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  WATCHING LIGHTNING BLOSSOMING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE LA GARITAS AND SAN JUANS
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF INTO SW CO.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT LIES ACROSS THE AKRNASAS RIVER VALLEY IN
EASTERN CO...WITH DEW POINTS BEHIND IT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...THOUGH DEW POINTS FARTHER SOUTH ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
LOWER...STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.  AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD...INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD PUSH PRECIP WATERS
OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AS FAR AS CLIMO GOES.  FRONT HAS ALREADY BEEN THE
INITIATOR OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH CAPES
RUNNING 1500+ J/KG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 40-50
KTS...INGREDIENTS CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...BUT
INITIAL INTENSE UPDRAFTS MAY BE ABLE TO SPIN UP A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES.

MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
CARRY THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH PRECIP WATERS RUNNING
AROUND 160% OF NORMAL.  HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE A TAD SPOTTIER IN NATURE VS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS.  WITH AREA RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A DELAYED
SNOW PACK MELT OFF...ANY RAINFALL COULD EXACERBATE SWOLLEN CREEKS
AND STREAMS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.  BASED ON NEW INFORMATION
CONCERNING THE SOUTH ARKANSAS RIVER BETWEEN PONCHA AND SALIDA
RUNNING HIGH...DECIDED TO ADD THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY TRHOUGH FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
ACROSS EASTERN CO...THOUGH MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE
CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFTER 06Z.  GIVEN THE FRONTAL
POSITION...THINK THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF THE NAM MAY BE MORE
CORRECT VS THE GFS.  FOLLOWING THE 4KM NAM12...2ND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE I-
25 CORRIDOR BY 9 PM...THEN OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.  SO BURN SCARS MAY
BE UNDER THE GUN A LITTLE LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.   AS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENT MAY PROGRESS TOWARDS A FLASH FLOOD AND
EVENTUALLY A RIVER FLOOD EVENT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN
FALLS AND HOW QUICKLY IT ROUTES INTO AREA RIVERS.  GROUND IS PRETTY
SATURATED...AND RIVER IS ALREADY AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT PLACES
CANON CITY...AVONDALE...LA JUNTA.  SO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WRONG
SPOTS COULD LEAD EXACERBATE HIGH WATER CONDITIONS.

MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  UPSLOPE SURE BODES FOR
KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HUNCH IS THAT NAM QPF IS OVERDONE IN WESTERN PUEBLO/EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES...LIKELY SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  BUT
GIVEN ALL THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE...WILL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR
FLASH FLOODING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY WET. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.  CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MUCH LESS...AND ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE TIED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS.  BUT
STEERING FLOW ALOFT LOOKS WEAKER TOO...SO CAN'T ARGUE WITH THE
DURATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH
SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND WOULD EXPECT THE  BEST CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO SEND A FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RESURGENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW LEADING TO A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...THOUGH MAY ALSO LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...A DRYING TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AS
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW DRYING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE ISOLATED...DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
+TSRA. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
PARTICULARLY FOR KCOS AND KPUB. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS FOR KCOS AND KPUB INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS MAY STAY MVFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. MAIN WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KALS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS/VIS SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY VFR. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COZ058>089-093>099.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-121715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1108 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL EXIST FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK...THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS ALL
OF THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES ARE IN PLACE...AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THE BURN
SCARS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE WALDO BURN SCAR WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7
PM...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RUN-OFF PROBLEMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
ALL OF THE PLAINS INTO LATE TONIGHT AS A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD THREAT...A FEW SEVERE ROTATING STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OUT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD RISK ON
MAIN STEM RIVERS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
THE REGION. FLOODING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT. IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DON'T
DROWN. SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE 12000 FEET WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND
THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A CONTINUED
THREAT OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

31/23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
244 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

COZ084-085-112130-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
244 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 244 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SCHRIEVER AFB...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO SPRINGS...FOUNTAIN...TRUCKTON...ELLICOTT...
SCHRIEVER AFB...YODER AND SECURITY-WIDEFIELD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3864 10468 3882 10469 3889 10412 3862 10410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 266DEG 22KT 3874 10459

KT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
255 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

COZ086>088-112145-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
255 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS...EAST
CENTRAL HUERFANO AND SOUTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
MDT...

AT 255 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES EAST OF WALSENBURG...OR 32 MILES NORTH OF TRINIDAD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL LAS
ANIMAS...EAST CENTRAL HUERFANO AND SOUTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3764 10474 3793 10442 3773 10419 3751 10459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 228DEG 17KT 3763 10460

PGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
256 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             2 NW PETERSON AFB       38.85N 104.73W
06/11/2015  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             5 NNW PETERSON AFB      38.89N 104.73W
06/11/2015  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     HAIL             4 WSW FALCON            38.91N 104.69W
06/11/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             5 WSW FALCON            38.91N 104.70W
06/11/2015  M1.10 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PP