River Flood Warning 47, NWS Pueblo, CO

496 
WGUS85 KPUB 070142
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
742 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Increased water releases from the Pueblo Reservoir and heavy rain
across eastern Colorado will keep river levels running high.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-071342-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0047.150707T1200Z-150709T0000Z/
/ADLC2.1.DR.150707T1200Z.150708T0600Z.150708T1200Z.UU/
742 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* from Tuesday morning to Wednesday evening...Or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Monday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by midmorning tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 7.2 feet by after midnight Wednesday 
  morning.the river will fall below flood stage by midmorning 
  Wednesday.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-071342-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150710T1000Z/
/LXHC2.1.DR.150702T0451Z.150709T0000Z.150709T2200Z.UU/
742 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until late Thursday night...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Monday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.9 feet by 
  early Wednesday evening. The river will fall below flood stage late
  Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

986 
WGUS85 KPUB 070811
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
211 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.High snowmelt runoff and recent rainfall will keep water
levels running high.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes.

&&

COC101-072011-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0047.150707T0805Z-150708T0200Z/
/ADLC2.1.DR.150707T0548Z.150707T0715Z.150707T1400Z.UU/
211 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* From early this morning to this evening...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  1:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  midmorning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-072010-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150710T0936Z/
/LXHC2.1.DR.150702T0451Z.150707T0200Z.150709T2136Z.UU/
211 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River at La Junta.
* Until late Thursday night...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.4 feet by 
  midmorning tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage late 
  Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

818 
WGUS85 KPUB 071333
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
733 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Recent rains will keep high water levels along the Arkansas River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-080133-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-150709T1840Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150707T0548Z.150708T1200Z.150709T0640Z.UU/
733 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until Thursday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 7.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.7 feet by 
  midmorning tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage after 
  midnight Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-080133-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150711T0742Z/
/LXHC2.1.ER.150702T0451Z.150709T0600Z.150710T1942Z.UU/
733 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until late Friday night...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.9 feet by 
  after midnight Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage early Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

506 
WGUS85 KPUB 072002
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
202 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Recent rain in southeast Colorado...combined with upstream releases 
from Pueblo Reservoir...will keep high water levels along the 
Arkansas River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-080802-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-150709T0000Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150707T0548Z.150707T1315Z.150708T1200Z.UU/
202 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until Wednesday evening...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  midmorning tomorrow.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-080802-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150711T0000Z/
/LXHC2.1.ER.150702T0451Z.150709T0000Z.150710T1200Z.UU/
202 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until Friday evening...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.7 feet by 
  early tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage 
  midmorning Friday.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

192 
WGUS85 KPUB 080233
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
833 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Heavy rain in southern Colorado Monday...combined with upstream 
releases from Pueblo Reservoir will keep water levels high along
the Arkansas River from east of Pueblo to the La Junta area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-081425-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-150708T1425Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150707T0548Z.150707T1315Z.150708T0225Z.UU/
833 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until Wednesday morning...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to slowly fall to below flood stage
  overnight and early Wednesday...but will continue to be monitored 
  closely. 
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-081432-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150710T1500Z/
/LXHC2.1.ER.150702T0451Z.150709T0000Z.150710T0300Z.UU/
833 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until Friday morning...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.6 feet by 
  early Wednesday evening. The river will fall below flood stage 
  late Thursday evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

850 
WGUS85 KPUB 080748
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
148 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.High snowmelt flows combined with rain showers will keep water
levels running high for the next few days.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-080818-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-150708T1425Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150707T0548Z.150707T1315Z.150708T0430Z.UU/
148 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* At  1:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 10:30 PM Tuesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.1 feet by 
  midmorning tomorrow.
* Impact...At 6.5 feet...Damage to irrigation works is possible.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-081947-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150710T1930Z/
/LXHC2.1.ER.150702T0451Z.150709T0000Z.150710T0730Z.UU/
148 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* Until Friday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.7 feet by 
  early this evening. The river will fall below flood stage after 
  midnight Friday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1118 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS. WATCHING WHAT COULD BE SOME
WEAK FORCING FROM A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO...WHICH
IS KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER GARFIELD COUNTY. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SUBTLE DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE IN WV
PICS...AND OF COURSE FARTHER WEST...THERE IS A MORE EVIDENT
FEATURE ACROSS UT/WRN AZ. TRANSLATING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST WOULD
PUT THE FORMER FEATURE ENTERING CHAFFEE/LAKE COUNTY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UPPER 40/LOWER 50 DEW POINTS SHOULD YIELD CAPE VALUES
OF UP TO 1000 J/KG...SO POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM UP
THAT WAY STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. THIS MAY BE THE INITIAL CONCERN
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FOR FLASH FLOODING. UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO
HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD YIELD A STRONG TO
NEAR SEVERE STORM OR TWO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT.
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST CO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHICH MAY HINDER
HEATING AND LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN TELLER...AND
FREMONT COUNTIES TO YIELD A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO. THIS
AREA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL
BECOME THE SECONDARY CONCERN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOOKS FAIRLY ISOLATED AS
STABILITY INCREASES QUICKLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE STILL
A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO QPF LOCATION
AND INTENSITY...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL CHANGE. WILL HOLD OFF
ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON
TUESDAY MAY BE GREATER. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE C AND S MTNS TODAY...ALSO COULD
SEE SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS IN THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS REACHED DOWN TO THE
CO/NM BORDER REGION AS OF 2 AM. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE
REGION AND DWPTS OVER THE SE PLAINS RANGED FROM 57-60F. MOISTURE WAS
ALSO NOTED IN THE MTNS WITH DWPTS AOA 50F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CHAFFEE COUNTY...M50S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND 40S IN THE MTNS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER THE PLAINS...AND THIS SYSTEM WAS
PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA THAT WERE MOVG NE.

ANOTHER BOUNDARY...THE "TRUE" COOL FRONT...WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NE CO...AND EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM N OF DIA TO THE CO/KS/NE BORDER AT
2 AM.

TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

IT WILL LIKELY BE A BUSY DAY TODAY WX-WISE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MTNS TODAY. THE COOL FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER NE CO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY...AND BY THIS
AFTERNOON DEEP MODEST UPSLOPE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS
UPSLOPE WILL IMPINGE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE FCST AREA...AND
CAPES ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE HIGHER
TRRN. LLVL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY STRONG IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE C MTNS/UPPER ARK VALLEY....THE WET
MTN VALLEY AND THE SANGRES AND WET MTN AREAS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ROTATING CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS
TODAY. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND CAPE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS/SPANISH PEAKS REGION. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE C MTNS...ESPECIALLY CHAFFEE COUNTY. OTHER AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PIKES PEAK REGION/FREMONT COUNTY...THE WET MTNS...AND THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN MTNS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND BACA COUNTY MAY
ALSO SEE SOME STRONG STORMS TODAY AND THIS AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED AS
MARGINAL RISK IN SPC'S 0600Z OUTLOOK.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL SIMPLY BE TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

LATER TONIGHT...

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTN REGION AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS MAINLY S OF SOUTH
FORK. REST OF AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TONIGHT OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SMALL ENSEMBLE SPREADS. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. LOW
LEVEL MOIST FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MODELS ARE INDICATING LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY SEE ENHANCED RAINFALL. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. MODELS
KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP KEEP CONVECTION REDUCED EAST OF I-25.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY MOIST MONSOON TAP IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING AND SPREADING
THEM EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR COULD CAUSE A FEW OF THE STORMS
TO BECOME AT LEAST STRONG...PRIMARILY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH A CONTINUED ELEVATED
FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

BY FRIDAY THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE TAP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PUSH OFF INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
THAT SEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND FORCING THE MOISTURE TAP WEST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP STORMS TIED TO THE
TERRAIN WITH DRY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON AND PUSH OFF INTO THE ADJACENT
I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEVELOPING VFR
TO MVFR STRATUS OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND PUEBLO COUNTIES IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT -TSRA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
BOTH TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. CIGS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE
MORNINGOR EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

KALS WILL SEE VCTS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS NEAR STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TONIGHT AS ONE MODEL IS PRODUCING IFR CIGS/VIS
WITH FOG TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS THE OUTLIER AND WILL MAINTAIN A VFR
CIG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR NOW. BUT IF
RAINFALL OCCURS AT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MAY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1109 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-071715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1109 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AS WELL AS THE RATON MESA REGION INCLUDING
LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. HAIL UP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS CHAFFEE AND LAKE
COUNTIES...SOUTHERN TELLER COUNTY...FREMONT COUNTY...AND THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN FOR THE BURN SCARS...AND LOCATIONS WITH SUSCEPTIBLE SOILS
SUCH AS THE CHALK CREEK AND COTTONWOOD CREEK BASINS IN CHAFFEE
COUNTY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...ACROSS NORTHERN TELLER
AND EL PASO COUNTIES AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WHICH SHOULD KEEP
RAINFALL RATES FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS INTENSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS
AND LOW LYING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN
BY POSSIBLE. MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A FEW
STRONG STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF DIMES ARE POSSIBLE.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. LESS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN
AND HIGH VALLEY REGIONS...AND ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES.

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