River Flood Warning 42, NWS Pueblo, CO

496 
WGUS85 KPUB 290114
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
714 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Releases from the Pueblo Reservoir will keep river levels running
high.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC089-290144-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150701T1200Z/
/LXHC2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
714 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* At  6:15 PM Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 11.0 feet. The 
  river will fall to 10.8 feet by .
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...The river is bankfull.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE CALM
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING SLIGHTLY
DRIER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.

TODAY...

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A PERIOD MTN TSTMS WITH HOT
AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE PLAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING
SHOWS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURE DROPPING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO
BETWEEN 18-21Z. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL HELP DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OVER THE PIKES PEAK MASSIF AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND 500-1000J OF CAPE WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
WEAKER SIDE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.
HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LCLS AROUND 8 KFT AGL. MAIN CONCERN WITH TSTMS WILL BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. STEERING WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE MTN AREAS. EL PASO COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW TSTMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND DUE TO HIGH BASES.

TONIGHT...

AFTER 00Z THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SRN MTNS...WHERE
TSTMS WILL STILL LINGER...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS
RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINATE AND THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE EXITS
THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MTN TSTMS BEGIN TOMORROW. -AL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WESTERN UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
MON/TUE...LEADING TO A DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS
HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE. WILL STILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS MODEST AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH UNFAVORABLE N-NE
STEERING CURRENTS KEEPING MOST STORMS WEST OF I-25. MAX TEMPS MON
SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN SUN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH FOLLOWING LATE SUN WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHILE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED. ON
TUE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND OVER THE PLAINS...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY WILL CREEP UPWARD TOWARD THE 100F MARK.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD BEGINNING WED...AS SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. FIRST WAVE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WED...THOUGH FRONT MAY
BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF
RATHER HOT TEMPS ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. AS POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE DEEPENS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE AREAS FARTHER WEST SEE A CONTINUATION OF
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS. FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST...WHILE LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW CONTINUES
BRING MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO CO. PATTERN WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE REGION...FAVORING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOST
PLENTIFUL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE READINGS
THU AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE READINGS THEN CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. KCOS WILL LIKELY SEE TSTMS DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY
BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z AS CONVECTION GETS AN EARLIER START OVER THE
PIKES PEAK MASSIF. KALS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN
THE VCNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19-03Z. KPUB WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE VCNTY TSTMS AS CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
631 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-291245-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
631 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO MOVE OUT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...HOWEVER SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY...FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

28/10