Alert archive / Colorado / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 22, NWS Pueblo, CO

May 27, 2015Pueblo County, Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this river flood warning at May 27, 2015, 1:18 AM MDT for Pueblo County, Colorado. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 27, 2015, 1:18 AM MDT (07:18 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2015, 12:00 PM MDT
In force: 3 days
Issued by: NWS Pueblo, CO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Pueblo County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Arkansas River near Avondale (ADLC2).

Action stage: 6 ft
Minor stage: 7 ft
Moderate stage: 10 ft
Major stage: 12 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07109500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

741 
WGUS45 KPUB 270718
FLWPUB
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
118 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Flood Warning 
for the following rivers in Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

.High river levels will continue along the Arkansas River as a result
of runoff from recent heavy rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-271918-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FL.W.0022.150527T0718Z-150530T1800Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150527T0440Z.150528T1200Z.150530T0600Z.UU/
118 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 12:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.3 feet by 
  midmorning tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage after 
  midnight Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

7 follow-up statements

364 
WGUS85 KPUB 270719
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
119 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

.High river levels will continue along the Arkansas River as a result
of runoff from recent heavy rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-271919-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150530T1800Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150527T0440Z.150528T1200Z.150530T0600Z.UU/
119 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until Saturday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.3 feet by 
  midmorning tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage after 
  midnight Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-271919-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150531T2100Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.150531T0900Z.UU/
119 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until Sunday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

645 
WGUS45 KPUB 271348
FLWPUB
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
748 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Colorado...
  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

.High river levels will continue along the Arkansas River as a result
of runoff from recent heavy rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-280148-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ADLC2.2.ER.150527T0440Z.150527T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
748 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Arkansas River Near Avondale.* At  7:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.5 feet by early
  this evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

182 
WGUS85 KPUB 271418
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
818 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River Near Nepesta affecting Pueblo County.

.Ongoing rain...some locally heavy...has fallen in southern 
Colorado. Water releases upstream from Pueblo Reservoir have 
also contributed to high river levels on the Arkansas River 
from Pueblo to around La Junta. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-280218-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ADLC2.2.ER.150527T0440Z.150527T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
818 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.5 feet by early
  this evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC101-280218-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0023.150527T2159Z-150529T0300Z/
/NPTC2.1.ER.150527T2159Z.150528T0600Z.150528T1500Z.UU/
818 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Nepesta.
* from this afternoon to Thursday evening...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  7:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 16.7 feet by after midnight tonight.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by late tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Minor flooding of agricultural lands near 
  Nepesta occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10424 3821 10411 3816 10394 3809 10394
      3814 10411 3820 10424       

$$

COC089-280218-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
818 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.9 feet by 
  after midnight Friday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

491 
WGUS85 KPUB 271913
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
113 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Nepesta affecting Pueblo County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.High water levels from recent heavy rains continue..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-280713-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ADLC2.2.ER.150527T0440Z.150527T1415Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
113 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 7.1 feet.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC101-280712-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0023.150528T0600Z-150528T1800Z/
/NPTC2.1.ER.150528T0600Z.150528T0600Z.150528T0600Z.UU/
113 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Nepesta.
* from late tonight to Thursday afternoon...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage after 
  midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Minor flooding of agricultural lands near 
  Nepesta occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10424 3821 10411 3816 10394 3809 10394
      3814 10411 3820 10424       

$$

COC089-280712-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
113 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.9 feet by 
  midmorning Friday then begin falling.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

594 
WGUS85 KPUB 280248
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
848 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River Near Nepesta affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.High water levels from recent heavy rains continue.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-281448-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ADLC2.2.ER.150527T0440Z.150527T1415Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
848 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.4 feet by after
  midnight tonight. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC101-281448-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0023.150528T0600Z-150528T1800Z/
/NPTC2.1.ER.150528T0600Z.150528T0600Z.150528T0600Z.UU/
848 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

Flood Warning for
  The Arkansas River Near Nepesta.
* through Thursday afternoon...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage after 
  midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Minor flooding of agricultural lands near 
  Nepesta occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10424 3821 10411 3816 10394 3809 10394
      3814 10411 3820 10424       

$$

COC089-281448-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
848 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.9 feet by 
  midmorning Friday then begin falling.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

169 
WGUS85 KPUB 280835
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
235 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Nepesta affecting Pueblo County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.High water levels from recent heavy rains continue.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-282035-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150529T0000Z/
/ADLC2.2.ER.150527T0440Z.150527T1415Z.150528T1200Z.UU/
235 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until this evening...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:15 AM Thursday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  midmorning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC101-280905-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-150528T1800Z/
/NPTC2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
235 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Arkansas River Near Nepesta.
* At  2:15 AM Thursday the stage was 16.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 16.4 feet 
  midmorning.
* Impact...At 14.5 feet...The river is bankfull. Low lying wetland 
  areas along the channel begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10424 3821 10411 3816 10394 3809 10394
      3814 10411 3820 10424       

$$

COC089-282035-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
235 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:15 AM Thursday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.8 feet by 
  early this evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

673 
WGUS85 KPUB 281301
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
701 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Recent heavy rains will keep area rivers running high.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-281331-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150529T0000Z/
/ADLC2.2.ER.150527T0440Z.150527T1415Z.150528T0749Z.UU/
701 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* At  6:15 AM Thursday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  1:49 AM Thursday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 6.8 feet by 
  midmorning tomorrow.
* Impact...At 6.5 feet...Damage to irrigation works is possible.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-290101-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
701 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:15 AM Thursday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.8 feet by 
  early this evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 26, 11:31 PM MDT, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 26, 11:31 PM MDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...MAYBE EIGHTY TOMORROW...
...SEVERE THREAT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...

CURRENTLY...AS ADVERTISED...LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS
THE RATON MESA AND PALMER DVD. SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND MOVE OFF IN A BROKEN LINE THIS
EVENING...REACHING THE KS BORDER BY 06Z OR SO. COULD SEE SOME
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP NR THE KS BORDER OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH WED MORNING.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW...WITH H7 TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES OVER SE CO BY WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPS TODAY A GOOD
EXAMPLE OF HOW HIGHS ARE NOT REACHING MOS POTENTIAL...SO EVEN THOUGH
MOS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS
TOMORROW...EXPECT WE WILL FALL SHORT ONCE AGAIN. BUT A FEW SPOTS OVER
THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD GET TO 80 OR BETTER BY MID AFTERNOON.

OTHER CHALLENGE TOMORROW WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX. SPC DY 2 HAS
THE SLIGHT RISK RIGHT ALONG OUR KS BORDER...WHICH LOOKS APPROPRIATE
GIVEN LOWER 50 DEWS OVER THE ERN COUNTIES...AND STRENGTHENING BULK
SHEAR. HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WED EVENING...SFC DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WHICH RESULTS IN CAPE VALUES OF
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG...BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT VERY
SIGNIFICANT...BEING AROUND 25 KTS.  THERE COULD BE A COUPLE SEVERE
STORMS IN THE EVENING NR THE ERN BORDER WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LATER WED NIGHT AN UPR
TROF WL LIE FROM EXTREME NWRN WY THRU UT AND INTO AZ. PCPN OVR THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD MOSTLY END BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ALONG THE ERN BORDER.

ON THU A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACRS CO...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS FIRING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS BY MIDDAY AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVE EASTWARD.  THE NAM IS FORECASTING CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT
SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...WL PROBABLY SEE A
COUPLE OR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE UPR TROF THEN BEGINS MOVING ACRS THE AREA THU NIGHT WITH MOST OF
THE AREA DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. A SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA EARLY
FRI AND FOR THE AFTERNOON PCPN CHANCES INCREASE ACRS THE AREA AS LOW
TO MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.  IN THE EVENING HOURS...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...THEN
CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.  THE GFS SHOWS PCPN AMOUNTS OF
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR MORE OVR THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER COUPLE OR A FEW TENTHS IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND
SLIDES EAST OVR CO ON SUNDAY...BRINGING DRIER WX BUT STILL A CHANCE
FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN PCPN OVR AND NR THE HIGH TRRN. THE UPR
RIDGE WL BE MOVING EAST ON MON AS A NEW TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN
STATE.  WL PROBABLY MOSTLY SEE HYR TRRN PCPN ON MON. THEN ON TUE THE
NEW UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO STILL BE TO OUR WEST...AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS MSTR BRING DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO ERN CO DURING THE
DAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN.  HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS MORE
WESTERLY TO SWRLY FLOW THAT DOES NOT BRING UP THAT MSTR. HARD TO SAY
AT THIS TIME HOW THINGS WL ACTUALLY TURN OUT A WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 18Z WITH STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous weather outlook, May 26, 11:44 AM MDT, 13 hours 34 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-271745-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1144 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY. THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM
THREATS TODAY WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN
DIAMETER...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE OFF INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HAIL TO AROUND
HALF DOLLARS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
KANSAS BORDER. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR BURN
SCARS AND AREAS WITH SATURATED GROUND. THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL SEE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY ABOVE 11000 FEET.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. FLOWS WITHIN CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DUE TO INCREASED
RUNOFF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY MORE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

44/44

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 26, 8:53 PM MDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 N COLORADO SPRINGS    38.89N 104.81W
05/26/2015  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN THE PAST 10 MINUTES

&&

PP

Local storm report, May 26, 9:02 PM MDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
902 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.89N 104.79W
05/26/2015  M0.45 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN A SPAN OF 10 MINUTES.

&&

PP

Local storm report, May 26, 9:06 PM MDT, 4 hours 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
906 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.89N 104.79W
05/26/2015  M0.45 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN A SPAN OF 10 MINUTES.

0850 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.88N 104.80W
05/26/2015  M0.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN PAST 10 MINUTES.

&&

PP

Special weather statement, May 26, 9:21 PM MDT, 3 hours 57 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
921 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COZ089-093-095-097-270400-
CROWLEY COUNTY CO-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-
LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY CO-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
921 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CROWLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA...NORTHEASTERN OTERO AND NORTHWESTERN BENT
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM MDT...

AT 921 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHERAW...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF LA JUNTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHERAW AND BLUE LAKE.

LAT...LON 3803 10343 3812 10363 3838 10348 3827 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 210DEG 21KT 3814 10349

HODANISH

Special weather statement, May 26, 9:28 PM MDT, 3 hours 50 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
928 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COZ085-270415-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
928 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM MDT...

AT 927 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTH OF TRUCKTON...OR 29 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUEBLO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRUCKTON.

LAT...LON 3874 10405 3855 10405 3853 10407 3854 10432
      3880 10420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 218DEG 20KT 3854 10420

HODANISH

Special weather statement, May 26, 10:09 PM MDT, 3 hours 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1009 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COZ095-097-270500-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
1009 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA AND NORTH
CENTRAL BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM MDT...

AT 1009 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BLUE LAKE...OR 28 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORTH LA JUNTA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLUE LAKE AND ARLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 10323 3834 10334 3854 10295 3830 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 242DEG 18KT 3830 10321

HODANISH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 26, 6:34 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Teller	41 min
May 26, 6:43 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Pueblo	47 min
May 26, 6:50 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Pueblo	40 min
May 26, 6:57 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Las Animas	48 min
May 26, 7:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Las Animas, Otero, Pueblo	35 min
May 26, 7:11 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Pueblo	49 min
May 26, 7:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	El Paso, Fremont, Huerfano, Pueblo, Teller	41 min
May 26, 7:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Otero	31 min
May 26, 8:10 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Las Animas	50 min
May 26, 8:14 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Otero	31 min
May 26, 8:41 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Crowley, Otero	34 min
May 26, 8:50 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	El Paso	40 min
May 26, 9:21 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Crowley	39 min
May 26, 9:28 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	El Paso	47 min
May 26, 10:09 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Kiowa	51 min
May 27, 8:15 AM MDT	River Flood Warning	PUB	Pueblo	37 hr
May 27, 1:32 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	El Paso	43 min
May 27, 1:42 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Baca	48 min
May 27, 2:09 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Baca	36 min
May 27, 2:17 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Huerfano	43 min
May 27, 3:06 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Las Animas	39 min
May 27, 3:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Las Animas	25 min
May 27, 3:26 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Bent	49 min
May 27, 4:02 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Baca	43 min
May 27, 4:24 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Pueblo	51 min
May 27, 4:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PUB	Baca	33 min
May 27, 4:53 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Pueblo	52 min
May 27, 5:38 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Crowley	52 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Colorado, 2015 Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.