Areal Flood Advisory 49, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
300 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

...STORMS A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...STORMS STARTING TO MOVE OFF THE MTS AND WILL AFFECT
THE SERN PLAINS AND VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE QUIETING DOWN OVERNIGHT. SVR PARAMETERS CURRENTLY
PRETTY MODEST...WITH UNDER 25 KTS OF SHEAR AND CAPE GENERALLY UNDER
750 J/KG...SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE URBAN ZONES AND
BURN SCARS.

TUESDAY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND STRENGTHENS A
BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT BULK SHEARS
TO RISE TO UP TO AROUND 40 KTS...WITH CAPE OF UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG.
ANOTHER  SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CO MID AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. SO...SVR THREAT WILL BE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW
WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH AND WIND TO 60 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING
A BIT FASTER TOMORROW...WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO
SOME EXTENT...BUT STORMS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND SO WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAIN RATES. BOTTOM LINE...AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY
WHEN WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE BURN SCARS AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...ALONG WITH A SVR THREAT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR.

TEMPS TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE. BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE HAVE KPUB IN THE LOWER 90S FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT MOS HAS BEEN MUCH TOO WARM ON ACCOUNT OF THE MODELS NOT PICKING
UP ON THE EFFECTS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT
PRECIP...WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS VALUES...OR
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE ERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFF ON TO THE PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD START TO FEEL A BIT MORE LIKE SUMMER TOMORROW. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

A COUPLE MORE DAYS FOR THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS...THEN FORECAST AREA
DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP. FAIRLY FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S...WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...SKIRTING THROUGH NORTHERN CO.
THESE WILL HELP FIRE OFF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR SOME
SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST BEST PARAMETERS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST CO AND SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NE...SO THINK MOST OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SHOULD BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS. SFC DEW POINTS DRY OUT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT HOLD STRONG IN THE 50S FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HIGHEST CAPES...1500+ J/KG...WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...EAST OF A DIFFUSE DRY LINE.
DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 30 KTS...SO LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DAY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL JET MOST LIKELY FOCUSING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ACROSS KS/NE AGAIN...THOUGH 18Z NAM IS
HOLDING ONTO SOME THUNDERSTORMS PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS LATTER
SOLN PANS OUT.

WEATHER DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...THEN FOR ALL AREAS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE
HITTING WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE PLAINS WITH 80S FOR THE
VALLEYS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES.

NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
MAY TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT FOR NOW THIS
FRONT LOOKS PRETTY DRY. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR NOW...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK PRETTY DRY IN THE GFS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HEATING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN FOR THE
PLAINS. ECMWF SPREADS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO
MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN GFS BEHIND SATURDAYS FRONT...AND KEEPS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...FORECAST WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE DRIER SIDE. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
COULD SEE MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE SEWD ACROSS I-25 AND OVER THE SE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SVR SIDE...WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ROSE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL EM ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
MTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STREAM FLOWS ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS
AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS DEPENDING
ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S RAINFALL. FARTHER NORTH...OVER LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...STILL SEEING STREAMS AT OR NEAR THEIR
BANKS...AND GIVEN CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL EXTEND THE WATCH THROUGH TUE EVENING AS WE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COZ058>063.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ064>075-078.

&&

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE
HYDROLOGY...ROSE

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