Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Phoenix, AZ

August 7, 2015Pinal County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 7, 2015, 3:19 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 7, 2015, 3:19 PM MST (22:19 UTC)
Expired: Aug 7, 2015, 4:00 PM MST
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Phoenix, AZ

County Pinal County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 195 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -180 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2488 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 7, 3:15 PM MST, 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 3:15 PM MST, 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
315 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF PHOENIX
TODAY...BUT STORM CHANCES WILL WANE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON FLOW IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SINCE
BEFORE SUNRISE...AND SOME CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS LA PAZ AND
EASTERN YUMA COUNTY. AN EVIDENT DRY AIR MASS RESIDES ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS...DEW POINT READINGS IN IMPERIAL
COUNTY ARE IN THE 20S AND 30S WHILE IN YUMA AZ THE DEWPOINT HAS
FALLEN FROM 72F EARLY THIS MORNING TO 62F EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING FARTHER EAST...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY STARTED AS EARLY AS 11AM AND CONTINUES TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

A NOD TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION VERSION OF THE NAM-WRF MODEL WHICH HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING...SO FAR THE FORECAST HAS
PLAYED OUT NICELY. UNIDIRECTIONAL STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECENT SHEAR /15-20 MPH/ PAIRED UP WITH 1.6 - 1.7 INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE INGREDIENTS FOR STORMS TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THANKS IN PART TO THE OFF SHORE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA...DIFFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA
AMONG THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP MIXING WILL CREATE
STRONG DOWNDRAFT SIGNATURES AS STORMS COLLAPSE. STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE GOING TO BE THE MAJOR HAZARDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS STORMS. SOME BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT AS STORMS
COLLAPSE OVER OPEN DESERT. ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
INCLUDING ADDING DUST THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING POPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 247 AM MST 7 AUG/....

NOT SURPRISINGLY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. HARD TO JUSTIFY POPS ANYWHERE
NEAR CLIMO THIS WEEKEND. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF
GLOBE...BUT THAT'D BE ABOUT IT.

DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL/FAVORABLE MONSOON FLOW /EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE
700-300MB LAYER/ FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE LACKING WITH PWATS ONLY RISING TO NORMAL VALUES
/AROUND 1.25 INCHES/. WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS TRIGGERS IN THE FLOW AND
BL MOISTURE WITHIN A FEW PERCENT OF NORMAL...IT DOESN'T APPEAR
ANYTHING MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.
INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS IDEA AND WAS ONLY ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BROAD TS COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS ACROSS EASTERN AZ ARE SENDING STORM
OUTFLOWS AND BUILDING SCATTERED TS ACTIVITY INTO THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TS COVERAGE WILL BUBBLE SOUTH
OF PHOENIX AND LIKELY PULSE UP AS STORM OUTFLOWS RUN UNDERNEATH
THEM. PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE
ERRATIC WINDS AND SUDDEN SHIFTS BECAUSE OF THE STORM COVERAGE AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED WINDS. ONCE STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY ARE MOVING NE-
WARD SO ANYTHING ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT POP OVER SW MARICOPA COULD
BE DRAWN INTO THE PHX AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR OUTFLOW
DRIVEN WINDS...WINDS OFF THE SFC TO MAINTAIN SOME S-SW HEADING BUT
MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SFC. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CB AND CIGS TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
THE W-SW LATER INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY WESTERLY SFC FLOW WILL PERSIST ELEVATED WEST BREEZES AND SCOUR
OUT THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...SHUTTING OFF ANY PTNL FOR STORMS FOR
THE WESTERN TERMINALS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME HIGH LEVEL
PASSING CU WILL GNLY BE THE EXTENT OF SKY COVERAGE...OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SKC.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA
DESERTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERTS THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIEST LOCATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
BREEZES GUSTING AT TIMES UP TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY/LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/CB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 11:51 AM MST, 3 hours 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1151 AM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ024-071945-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS AZ-
1151 AM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL GILA COUNTY

UNTIL 1245 PM MST

AT 1151 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER SAN CARLOS...OR 17 MILES EAST OF GLOBE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN CARLOS.

LAT...LON 3340 11040 3339 11042 3338 11045 3329 11046
      3330 11053 3349 11056 3350 11037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 179DEG 4KT 3334 11049

NOLTE

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 12:29 PM MST, 2 hours 50 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1229 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ024-072030-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS AZ-
1229 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL GILA COUNTY

UNTIL 130 PM MST

AT 1229 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF CLAYPOOL...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF GLOBE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL GILA
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3346 11074 3352 11078 3352 11086 3364 11092
      3368 11084 3366 11078 3380 11067 3354 11050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 243DEG 7KT 3360 11080

NOLTE

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 12:53 PM MST, 2 hours 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1253 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ024-072115-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS AZ-
1253 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN GILA COUNTY

UNTIL 215 PM MST

AT 1253 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KEARNY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GILA
COUNTY TO 8 MILES EAST OF SAN CARLOS RESERVOIR TO NEAR
WINKELMAN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLOBE...HAYDEN...CHRISTMAS...SAN CARLOS...SAWMILL...CUTTER...HILLTOP
AND CENTRAL HEIGHTS-MIDLAND CITY.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3347 11017 3344 11020 3344 11032 3340 11035
      3339 11044 3329 11046 3320 11040 3319 11050
      3314 11059 3315 11063 3299 11079 3323 11094
      3329 11094 3383 11033 3358 11000 3347 11000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 177DEG 16KT 3323 11031 3293 11077

NOLTE

Local storm report, Aug 7, 1:47 PM MST, 1 hour 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
147 PM MST FRI AUG 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE SAN CARLOS        33.35N 110.45W
08/07/2015                   GILA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIVE WIRE BLOWN DOWN IN RESIDENTIAL AREA. WATER
            COVERING ROADWAY. FLOODING IN RESIDENTIAL AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1500096

PSR

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 2:22 PM MST, 57 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
222 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ024-028-072215-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY AZ-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS AZ-
222 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PINAL...EAST CENTRAL MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES

UNTIL 315 PM MST

AT 221 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH THOUGH THE AREA OF
STORMS WAS SLOWLY EXPANDING TO THE WEST.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORENCE...GLOBE...SUPERIOR...HAYDEN...CHRISTMAS...ROOSEVELT...SAN
CARLOS...MIAMI...SAWMILL...CUTTER...FOUR PEAKS...CLAYPOOL...QUEEN
VALLEY...TONTO NATIONAL MONUMENT...HILLTOP...APACHE LAKE...PUNKIN
CENTER...CENTRAL HEIGHTS-MIDLAND CITY...TONTO BASIN AND TOP OF THE
WORLD.

LAT...LON 3344 11021 3338 11045 3329 11046 3320 11040
      3315 11063 3299 11079 3324 11095 3295 11137
      3326 11132 3396 11139 3380 11115 3376 11099
      3364 11092 3368 11084 3366 11078 3379 11068
      3385 11056 3383 11033 3379 11027 3366 11012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 232DEG 17KT 3361 11118

PI

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 3:19 PM MST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
319 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ024-028-072300-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY AZ-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS AZ-
319 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  PINAL AND EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTIES

UNTIL 400 PM MST

AT 317 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLORENCE AND CASA GRANDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...SUPERIOR...MARICOPA...QUEEN
CREEK...ARIZONA CITY...SAN TAN VALLEY...AND FLORENCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY DENSE BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE.  IF YOU ENCOUNTER BLOWING
DUST WHILE DRIVING...PULL OVER AS FAR OFF THE ROADWAY AS POSSIBLE AND
PARK. TURN OFF YOUR HEADLIGHTS AND KEEP YOUR FOOT OFF THE BRAKE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 11217 3321 11174 3320 11160 3329 11158
      3345 11125 3322 11099 3274 11165 3273 11174
      3280 11178 3276 11205 3272 11207 3272 11214
      3268 11215 3269 11216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 235DEG 11KT 3309 11136

PI

The office that day

Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 6, 5:04 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Yuma	26 min
Aug 6, 7:14 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		16 min
Aug 6, 9:41 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		34 min
Aug 7, 6:06 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		39 min
Aug 7, 6:52 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Pinal	38 min
Aug 7, 7:29 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		46 min
Aug 7, 11:41 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Gila	49 min
Aug 7, 11:44 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Gila	46 min
Aug 7, 11:51 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Gila	54 min
Aug 7, 11:56 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Gila	49 min
Aug 7, 12:21 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	PSR	Gila	3 hr
Aug 7, 12:29 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Gila	61 min
Aug 7, 12:53 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Gila	82 min
Aug 7, 1:25 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	PSR	Gila	3 hr
Aug 7, 1:54 PM MST	Blowing Dust Advisory	PSR		2 hr
Aug 7, 2:16 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	PSR	Gila	3 hr
Aug 7, 2:22 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Gila	53 min
Aug 7, 2:28 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Pinal	17 min
Aug 7, 4:20 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		25 min
Aug 7, 4:47 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Maricopa	43 min
Aug 6, 7:26 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Imperial, Riverside	19 min
Aug 6, 7:46 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Riverside	29 min
Aug 6, 9:11 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Riverside	34 min
Aug 6, 9:27 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Riverside, San Bernardino	33 min
Aug 6, 10:54 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Riverside	36 min
Aug 7, 12:46 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	PSR	Riverside, San Bernardino	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.